MLB Best Bets Today April 2:
The early bird got the worm with Wednesday’s MLB card, as we had several getaway day games. That’s not a surprise with so many interleague series and teams that started on the road are likely to head home and have some Opening Day festivities.
There are a few late games that still have some lead time, though the pickings are a little slim for today’s action. Some of the late-night pitching matchups are rather interesting, so there are some decent bets to be made.
Top MLB Resources:
It would be wise to check out my stats glossary, as you’ll see a lot of those terms and the application of them in my handicapping. Also, check out my 30 MLB Team Previews and my list of roster updates since the previews are about a month or so old.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 2:
Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees (-142, 7.5)
7:05 p.m. ET
It will be a bit of a cool night in the Bronx, but that may not even be enough to cool off the Yankees’ bats. New York did lose last night, but scored five runs in the process, as they’ve now scored 41 runs in their first four games of the season. The torpedo bats are obviously getting a lot of attention, and rightfully so, but they’ve simply punished mistakes in the middle of the plate thus far.
Despite some pretty good ERA and run metrics, Zac Gallen gets hit hard. In his first start, he allowed a 46.2% Hard Hit% and two Barrels, as the Cubs knocked him around for four runs. Gallen has a 40.3% Hard Hit% for his career and has had back-to-back seasons with an average exit velocity of 90+ mph. We know that the Yankees, who are second in Hard Hit% and first in Barrel%, hit the ball quite hard.
The Diamondbacks are a really strong offense as well, as they led the league in runs scored last season. They were also first in wOBA against left-handed pitching, as they draw a southpaw today in Carlos Rodon. Rodon has also had an average exit velocity of 90+ mph the last two seasons and a Hard Hit% in the 40% range. He’s also allowed a double-digit Barrel% over each of the last two seasons.
Arizona is pretty good at not striking out and when Rodon isn’t getting Whiffs, he is hittable, as evidenced by those contact management metrics. I’m honestly surprised that Rodon, who is a fly ball pitcher, fared better at home last season with a 3.11 ERA compared to a 4.69 ERA on the road. However, his 4.48 FIP at home is more indicative of his true talent level pitching in a Little League ballpark like Yankee Stadium. He just happened to have an 85.9% LOB% and .237 BABIP at home compared to a 74.8% LOB% and .321 BABIP on the road.
In other words, I think he’s a guy worth fading here with a tough matchup and I certainly don’t like Gallen’s contact management numbers running into a matchup with the Yankees, cold weather or not.
Pick: Diamondbacks/Yankees Over 7.5 (-118)
