MLB Best Bets Today April 30:
The Hump Day slate around Major League Baseball features a whole lot of getaway day games, as all 30 teams are in action and we even have a doubleheader between the Cardinals and Reds. But, we have a lot of early-afternoon starts out there, so time is a factor with handicapping today’s card.
Getaway day games can be tricky, as sometimes players don’t play a day game after a night game or managers try to steal an extra day off if Thursday is a scheduled hiatus, so you have to be cognizant of that and may want to check lineups for confirmation before firing away. In the interest of lead time, I can’t do that, but you can definitely keep that in mind if you’d like.
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This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 30:
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (-148, 8.5)
4:10 p.m. ET
Tyler Anderson and Emerson Hancock come together to wrap up this series, as the tired Angels head home to start a series with the Tigers on Thursday and the Mariners catch a plane to DFW to face the Rangers this weekend. The Angels had a late Thursday game against Pittsburgh last week and then flew to Minnesota, where they got swept by a combined score of 21-5. Then they flew all the way back to Seattle and lost 5-3 last night.
I think Hancock should be able to benefit from that schedule and the fact that the Angels don’t have an off day tomorrow before opening up a weekend series. Hancock went six solid innings last time out at Fenway Park with two runs allowed on five hits with seven strikeouts. He also threw 92 pitches and over two-thirds of them were strikes.
He only threw 73 pitches against the Reds in his April 17 start, but manager Dan Wilson gave him a longer leash at Fenway Park. I think Hancock, who is making his first home start since being recalled, should be able to get his team into the sixth inning today. Anderson is a noteworthy regression candidate with a 2.60 ERA, 3.72 xERA, and a 5.25 FIP, so maybe the Mariners can give Hancock some run support.
Even if not, the Angels are one of the least patient lineups in baseball and they sure do love striking out. Over the last 14 days, the Angels have a 4.5% BB%, which is 1.6% lower than any other team. They also have a 32.4% K%, which is 5.5% higher than any other team. In other words, Hancock should be able to have some pretty good pitch efficiency here and it certainly doesn’t hurt to be pitching at T-Mobile Park today.
Pick: Emerson Hancock (SEA) Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+110)
Minnesota Twins (-135, 7) at Cleveland Guardians
6:10 p.m. ET
The Guardians walked off the Twins last night to end a rain-delayed game with very little rain, as it was a late night for both teams in The Land. Game 3 of this four-game set is tonight with Pablo Lopez and Luis L. Ortiz.
This is a one-sided handicap for me as I am looking at Ortiz’s K prop. It is a pretty juicy plus-money price on Over 5.5 Strikeouts for a guy that has 26 punchies over his last 15 innings of work. There is not a lot of pitch efficiency for Ortiz and it is tough for him to work deep into games, so I get it, but he’s had SwStr% of 13%, 14.1%, and 17.3% over his last three starts. He had 20 Whiffs in 4.1 innings against the Yankees last time out. That’s a lot of nastiness.
Ortiz’s 78.8% Z-Contact% is extremely good, as the Guardians have started to harness his high-velocity, high-RPM arsenal. He generates a lot of spin and good Extension on his pitches, which is why Cleveland targeted him. He’s in the 80th percentile in Whiff% and even higher over his last three outings.
I get that the Twins don’t strike out at the same rate that the Yankees or Pirates do, so Ortiz will have to be sharper with his location against Minnesota. But, I also found something else interesting. The Twins have swung at 328/4442 first pitches this season, which ranks in the bottom 10 for Swing% in 0-0 counts. Ortiz has a 63.2% F-Strike% this season and actually had a season-high 70.8% F-Strike% last time out against the Yankees.
When Ortiz starts a count 0-1, he has 20 K in 66 PA for a 30.3% K%. Even when he throws a first-pitch ball, he has a 25.6% K%. The Twins rank 22nd in Swing%, so they’re taking a fair number of called strikes. Given that Ortiz isn’t getting many chases outside the zone, but is racking up a high In Zone Whiff%, this matchup isn’t as bad as it seems given Minnesota’s lower K%.
I think Over 5.5 Strikeouts at this type of plus-money price is absolutely worth a shot.
Pick: Luis L. Ortiz (CLE) Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+135)
Milwaukee Brewers (-162, 7.5) at Chicago White Sox
7:40 p.m. ET
Sigh. Sometimes you have to strongly consider betting on bad teams. And sometimes you feel like you just have to pull the trigger. This is one of those times. The Brewers and White Sox play the middle game of the only interleague series that we have going on right now. It will be Tobias Myers for the Brew Crew and Shane Smith for the Pale Hose.
In a season already full of disappointments for the White Sox, Smith has not been one of them. The rookie right-hander has a 2.30 ERA with a 3.81 xERA and a 3.37 FIP in his 27.1 innings of work. He has allowed a 45.9% Hard Hit%, but only a 6.8% Barrel%. His solid 12.1% SwStr% has the chance to keep bumping up his K%, especially as his CStr% increases with more confidence in his arsenal at the MLB level. Stuff+ isn’t a huge fan of the arsenal just yet, but I think we have the chance to get to that point.
It is rare to see a four-seam fastball with his results, as he’s allowed a .179 BA with a .282 SLG and has a 25% Whiff%. All five of the pitches that he’s thrown have a Whiff% north of 20%. He’s done a good job of forcing hitters to use the bigger parts of the ballpark on fly balls and I really like the combination of his above average Extension and fastball velocity coupled with how he likes to locate it in the upper parts of the zone. It will be a cool, gross, damp day in Chicago, so that could also help knock down some fly balls.
Myers made three starts in the minors before making his 2025 MLB debut, as he had eight strikeouts out of 55 batters in three Triple-A outings. He only struck out two Giants in his first MLB start and walked four. The command and control were definitely not there yet for him, as he works his way back for a M*A*S*H unit of a pitching staff for the Brewers. The bullpen has gotten healthier, but the starters are still operating a little bit shorthanded.
This simply looks like a buy spot on Smith. I don’t seem to be alone, as little bit of money has hit the board on the White Sox. Shop around because this price is a few cents better in other places. The Brewers bullpen hasn’t been great and the 1st 5 is priced at +114 at DraftKings, so I prefer the full game to get some extra bang for my buck.
Pick: White Sox +136
