MLB Best Bets Today April 9:
Several Wednesday getaway day games are on the docket, as we have quite a few early starts. That’s probably a good thing, seeing as how we’ve had a lot of cold-weather series this week and maybe it will be slightly less miserable for the players and fans. It also helps teams get to their next location with a little bit more of a grace period.
All 30 teams are in action, but with a little bit of a later start this morning and the time difference, the early games are off the table. Fortunately, we still have a lot of late afternoon and evening games to ponder.
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This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year, I intend to work in more props, derivatives, and maybe even some parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and attack some different markets. What worked for me in the past has not worked as well the last two years, so I’m looking to make some changes and that includes my bet distribution by type and market.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for April 9:
Los Angeles Dodgers (-185, 9) at Washington Nationals
4:05 p.m. ET
A rough road trip comes to a close for the Dodgers today, as they look to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Nationals. It will be Landon Knack for the visitors and Jake Irvin for the hosts. The focus of my handicap here is Irvin against a potent Dodgers lineup.
So far in 2025, Irvin has worked 26.1 innings between Spring Training and the regular season. He has 14 strikeouts out of 119 batters. He only had nine punchies against eight walks in 16.1 ST innings and has five in his two MLB starts against three walks. Irvin only has a 7.7% SwStr% in his two MLB starts with a pathetic Chase Rate of just 21.9%.
I was surprised to see that the Dodgers are 25th in Contact% this season, as they’ve swung and missed a lot more than I would expect them to, but they have faced the Tigers, Braves, Phillies, and now Nationals stateside after the Tokyo Series and there are some really good arms on three of those teams. They even struck out 15 times yesterday against spot starter Brad Lord and three relievers. But, Irvin doesn’t have that kind of stuff and I feel like the Dodgers will be plenty focused today to avoid getting swept and to be able to have a little more enjoyable of a five-hour flight home.
If they do struggle here, there are bigger issues at play, given that Irvin ranks in the Bottom 1% in xERA, Bottom 2% in xBA, 11th percentile in Average Exit Velo, 20th percentile in Chase Rate, 13th percentile in Whiff%, 12th percentile in K%, Bottom 7% in Barrel%, and Bottom 9% in Hard Hit%.
Not only do I like them to make a lot of contact against Irvin, I expect them to score some runs.
Pick: Jake Irvin (WAS) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130); Dodgers 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-110)
Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays (-142, 8)
7:05 p.m. ET
The Angels are off to a surprisingly strong start with a 7-3 record over their first 10 games and they’re 5-2 on the road heading into the second of three games in this series at George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. The Rays are off to a less exciting 4-6 start, but I do like the matchup for them here tonight.
Yusei Kikuchi gets the call for the Halos and the Rays saw plenty of him during his years with the Blue Jays. Thus far, Kikuchi has allowed five Barrels already with an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph. He’s in the 14th percentile for Barrel% in the early going and 19th percentile in GB%. We haven’t really seen it yet in Tampa with the Rays now playing outside, as run-scoring has been somewhat limited, but I am very wary of any fly ball hurler, especially one with a home run problem like Kikuchi.
Kikuchi’s velo is down over a full mph on the fastball thus far and his slider spin rate is down about 130 rpm from last season. He’s getting fewer Whiffs on the pitch than he did last season and his fastball has not been nearly as effective. All four of his most-used pitches have an average EV against of 90+ mph. He walked five in his last start and has given up three long balls already, as he now heads to the warmer, more humid Florida climate.
I came into the season worried about Ryan Pepiot as more of a fly ball guy, but it absolutely looks like the Rays have made some changes to his arsenal to counteract that concern of mine. It is early, but through two starts, Pepiot has a 48.5% GB% after posting a 35.3% GB% last season. His fastball usage is down nearly 18%, replaced with more cutters and sliders. He’s actually pretty good at generating Whiffs on his high fastball, so his SwStr% is down from 12.9% to 12.7%, even with what should theoretically be an increase.
But, it’s also worth noting that Pepiot has a 49% F-Strike% this season, so he’s been behind in more counts, which makes it tougher to generate swings and misses. He was at 66.2% last season and his called strike rate was higher. So, the fact that he’s getting more Whiffs on pitches in the zone is encouraging and he should thrive even more as he works ahead in counts more frequently.
So, with all of that in mind, I like the Rays on the 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 at +105. The Angels have been quite good on offense to this point, but I do like Pepiot’s new pitch mix and the Rays have obviously targeted something. I also think his fastball will get better as the season goes along. It was one of the best in baseball last season.
Pick: Rays 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (+105)
