MLB Best Bets Today August 27
Key Highlights:
- 15 games on the MLB schedule today
- Phillies vs. Mets Prediction
- Pirates vs. Cardinals Pick
All 30 MLB teams are scheduled to be in action today, as we have four early day games and 11 evening/night games. As some series conclude, they’ll conclude with a matinee. Others will wrap up tonight or continue on through tomorrow, when we’ll have a Thursday slate with eight games.
There are a couple more big favorites on the slate for today compared to what we saw yesterday, when the Astros were really the only massive favorite, and they actually lost to the Rockies. Will any big favorites go down today? We’ll have to wait and see, but there are a lot of intriguing pitching matchups for the games with tighter lines.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for August 27:
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (-158, 8.5)
7:07 p.m. ET
The gap in the NL East has shrunk by two games in this series, as the Mets look for a sweep of the Phillies and to close the gap to four games. That would be the lowest gap between the two since August 8 when the Mets were 3.5 games back. They’ve been five games back several times since, but haven’t been able to cut it down. With 13-3 and 6-5 wins so far in this series, they have that opportunity today.
Taijuan Walker gets the call to help the Phillies try to avoid the sweep, while rookie sensation Nolan McLean goes for the Mets. This is just a one-sided handicap on New York’s 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 for me. I am curious to see how McLean does, but his high K% and a high GB% are two big selling points, so I’m not ready to fade him, even with a tough matchup.
But, I’m happy to fade Walker, who is building quite the collection of regression indicators. Here in the second half, Walker has a 3.29 ERA, but a 5.45 FIP. A 92.8% LOB% is doing a lot of heavy lifting, as he has allowed eight home runs – seven in his first three starts of the second half and one since – that have cleared the bases for him. Obviously with that 3.29 ERA, most of them have been of the solo variety. But he only has 21 strikeouts out of 157 batters faced in the second half. That’s not a whole lot of margin for error.
Walker’s seven starts have been against the Nationals (x2), Reds, Orioles, White Sox, Yankees, and Angels. In the second half, those teams rank 24th, 26th, 15th, 6th, 10th, and 20th in wOBA. The Mets are fifth, so this will be the best lineup he’s faced in that span. It is actually the White Sox who are sixth, as they’ve been having a bit of a resurgence, but we can all agree that the Mets lineup is better. They also have a .398 wOBA with a 162 wRC+ against RHP over the last 14 days.
It’s a big game for both teams, but the Mets seem to have their hitting shoes on with 19 runs in this series and a big chance to take another game off the deficit.
Pick: Mets 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-115)
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-175, 7.5)
7:40 p.m. ET
The Pirates were good to us on Tuesday and I’m going back to the well today. Carmen Mlodzinski will start this one for Pittsburgh and go as long as he can, while Sonny Gray takes the hill for the Cardinals. There are some disagreements out there as to whether or not star prospect Bubba Chandler will follow Mlodzinski today or Braxton Ashcraft tomorrow. But, because Ashcraft is more stretched out than Mlodzinski, my guess is that Chandler, who threw 40 pitches on Friday, gets the call to go today.
Mlodzinski has a 3.89 ERA with a 4.33 xERA and a 3.57 FIP for the season. His low-ish K% of 20.2% is the reason why his xERA is high, but the rest of his rate stats and command metrics look solid to me. His Hard Hit% is a little above league average, but his 7.1% Barrel% is solid. In the second half, he sports a .220 wOBA against with a 27/4 K/BB ratio in 24 innings of work, leading to a 1.88 ERA and 1.62 FIP.
Chandler, if he goes, worked four shutout innings in relief in his MLB debut and actually picked up his first MLB save. In the minors, he had a 4.05 ERA with a 3.91 FIP, but struck out 121 batters in 100 innings and spent most of the season wondering when he’d get the call.
I talked about this yesterday when backing Mitch Keller against Andre Pallante, but the Cardinals are 28th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days at .270. For August as a whole, they rank 26th in wOBA at .289. This should be a good matchup for Mlodzinski and whoever follows.
Gray is up to a 4.33 ERA on the season, though he does have a 3.78 xERA and a 3.27 FIP in his 145.1 innings of work. In the second half, he has a 6.75 ERA over 37.1 innings of work with a .319/.343/.581 slash and a .392 wOBA, an increase of 110 wOBA points from the first half. He’s given up 10 homers in those 37.1 innings. He gave up 10 homers in 108 innings in the first half.
The Pirates aren’t a big home run hitting team, but they are 10th in wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days and 13th in wOBA overall in August. I’ll take my chances with them at a dog price here, as they improved to 46-49 under interim manager Don Kelly with last night’s win and I really don’t think much of the Cardinals.
Pick: Pirates +143
