MLB Best Bets Today July 23

A very busy day on the diamond starts early and ends late, as all 30 teams take the field with games ranging from 12:05 p.m. ET to 8:05 p.m. ET. As usual, I’m only looking at the later games on the slate when we have these types of days, as it’s important to try and give as much lead time as possible.

That does leave some relatively slim pickings, though, as we only have five games in the dinnertime hours. Maybe some midday matinees will make the cut as well.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 23:

St. Louis Cardinals (-192, 11) at Colorado Rockies

3:10 p.m. ET

Afternoon baseball at Coors Field brings us a matchup between Andre Pallante and Tanner Gordon, as the Cardinals and Rockies play the rubber match of their three-game series. The Rockies won last night after the Cardinals won on Monday night, setting up the series decider here today.

Pallante is a guy that has been bursting with regression signs for a while and they’ve finally hit in his last two starts, as he’s allowed 13 runs on 17 hits over 10.2 innings of work. He’s a guy with just 67 strikeouts in 105 innings of work this season. His saving grace has been a 61.6% GB%, but he’s been at 52% and 40% in that department in his last two starts and we see what the results have been.

Now pitching at Coors Field with a pathetic K% and a really bad K%-BB%, I feel like we should see a continuation of his poor performances. Normally I’d like a ground ball guy more in this setting, but Pallante seems to have lost his release point or something, as his 40% GB% last time out was his lowest of the season and just his second start in the 40s. I remember sinkerballer Jake Westbrook used to say that he liked to pitch a little bit fatigued because his sinker had more sink to it. Well, with Pallante fresh off of the All-Star Break, maybe that had something to do with it.

Gordon is back up in the big leagues after a couple months in the minors. He allowed 11 runs (eight earned) on 20 hits in 17 innings over three May starts, but his first start was a disaster against the Tigers before a couple decent outings after that. On a warm day in Denver for a guy who tilts more towards the fly ball/line drive side of the spectrum, I think it’s hard to see a lot of success for him as well. That being said, I do think his chances at success might be a bit better than Pallante’s in this outing.

The Rockies are still out there battling despite their really poor record. The Cardinals seem more likely to be a seller than a buyer at the Trade Deadline, even though they’re in the Wild Card hunt, as a guy like Ryan Helsley could net a nice return, along with others.

I think we see runs here today, but I also think that the Rockies are live to pull a second straight upset. We should have a ton of balls in play with two low-strikeout starters and I’ll take my chances with that at Coors.

Picks: Rockies +155; Cardinals/Rockies Over 11 (-108)

Sacramento A’s at Texas Rangers (-144, 8.5)

8:05 p.m. ET

There were some very smart people who were out there putting their faith in the Rangers coming out of the All-Star Break. On paper, Texas was absolutely a better team than their record, especially with some of the starting pitching that they’ve been getting. Well, they’re off to a nice start here in the second half and it seems like veteran skipper Bruce Bochy has his finger on the pulse of his ballclub.

They’ll look for another win and a sweep of the A’s in tonight’s series finale. So far, the Rangers have outscored the A’s 13-4 and have the chance to keep the mojo rolling offensively against JP Sears. Sears was magnificent in the first month of the season, posting a 2.94 ERA with a .231/.275/.385 slash against and a .288 wOBA against over his first 33.2 innings.

Unfortunately, he’s gone in the polar opposite direction since mid-May. Sears has a 6.99 ERA with a 6.18 FIP over his last 12 starts covering 56.2 innings of work. In that span, he has allowed 16 home runs and 66 hits with 45 runs allowed and just a 48/19 K/BB ratio. Slowly, but surely, Texas is perking up offensively, as they have a 105 wRC+ over the last 14 days.

The A’s seem like they are not excited to be back at work. They’ve dropped four of five since the second half began and have allowed 6+ runs in four of those games, all of which have come on the road. I know that laying a number with Patrick Corbin seems simply ludicrous, but Corbin has been sharp for the Rangers this season with a 3.91 ERA and a 4.22 FIP. He is outpitching some of his advanced metrics, but still.

I think he gets plenty of run support here today, as the Rangers get a good matchup against Sears, who came back from the Break and allowed seven runs to Cleveland’s normally punchless offense and one of the worst in baseball against lefties.

Pick: Rangers -144