MLB Best Bets Today July 30

Only six teams are in action tomorrow on Trade Deadline Day, but all 30 are out there today. It could be a really, really uncomfortable day for some teams and players waiting to find out what happens and where they’ll be playing their next games. Yes, these are well-paid athletes, but also human beings with families and friends and this week can be one of the toughest of the season.

There are a handful of day games, so those teams can at least get their work done and then wait it all out, but others will wait until tonight to take the field. One other thing to keep in mind is that as pitchers get traded and start with their new teams, they’ll be throwing to unfamiliar catchers in the process of making tweaks suggested by their new pitching coaches or front office members. Sometimes it doesn’t go well. Sometimes it goes really well. Pay attention to those things as we move forward.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for July 30:

New York Mets at San Diego Padres (-113, 8.5)

4:10 p.m. ET

A six-game West Coast swing ends for the Mets on Wednesday afternoon at Petco Park with a matchup between Clay Holmes and Yu Darvish. Holmes continues to spit in the face of his regression signs, much to my chagrin, but I’m going to take another stab at it here with a San Diego offense that is swinging it very well here in the second half.

The Padres are 11th in wOBA at .332, but seventh in wRC+ at 118 with a .285/.337/.421 slash to get things going. They’ve only hit eight homers and their lower SLG is why they rank outside the top 10 in wOBA, but they’ve scored 57 runs in 12 games and have the fourth-lowest K% in the league since play resumed.

Holmes has a 3.40 ERA with a 4.24 xERA and a 4.15 FIP in his 113.2 innings of work, which blows away his previous career high of 70 innings pitched. He’s been getting by on a lot of batted ball and sequencing luck, as well as his extreme ground ball rate, but the swings and misses just aren’t there anymore. Holmes has 88 K in his 21 starts, but he has posted just a 23/21 K/BB ratio over his last eight starts over 40.1 innings of work. He’s got a 4.24 ERA with a 4.71 FIP in that span.

Because Holmes has avoided the long ball, he’s been able to survive, but he’s allowing a ton of balls in play and the margin for error has gotten rather thin. He’s allowed 27 hard-hit balls over his last three starts, including 12 in his last outing and 10 in his last start of the first half.

Unfortunately, I have no interest in backing Yu Darvish here, as he’s allowed 17 runs on 21 hits in 16.2 innings of work with an 11/9 K/BB ratio. St. Louis smoked him for eight runs in just 3.1 innings last time out, as he was pitching on regular rest in his second start after the ASB. It is a very rough look for Darvish right now with a 22.6% Chase Rate and just a 9.8% SwStr%, which is actually just 7.2% over his last three starts.

So there are a few things I’m looking at here. It will be warm and actually a little bit humid in San Diego today, so I think we could see some offense from one or both of these teams. Mets 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 at +120 and Padres 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 at +114. I figure in the worst-case scenario, one of these should hit.

Holmes Under 3.5 Strikeouts at -120 also intrigues me, as he has a F-Strike% below 55% in each of his last three starts and has gone Under this number in six of his last eight starts, while now drawing one of the lowest K% lineups in baseball. His Z-Contact% over his last three starts is 92.3%, 90.0%, and 97.1% with Chase Rates below 29%. The quality of the stuff is declining in my opinion.

Picks: Mets 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+120); Padres 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+114); Clay Holmes (NYM) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-143, 9)

7:05 p.m. ET

Zack Littell is currently slated to make this start for the Rays, but there is a chance that he does get traded today. So, before I get too far into this handicap, make sure to find the Listed Pitchers Must Start option at your sportsbook because my handicap is predicated on Littell getting the nod.

I would personally say that starting the impending free agent at Yankee Stadium is a bad idea for his trade value, but we’ll see what Tampa decides to do. Littell has a 3.72 ERA with a 4.57 xERA and a 4.92 FIP in his 128.1 innings of work. His K% is down to 16.5%, and while his 3.3% BB% is stellar, he’s not missing many bats at all. He has an 85.1% LOB% because home runs keep clearing the bases.

Littell has given up 26 homers. Interestingly, even though he has experienced a major park factor downgrade at home, he’s given up 18 of his 26 homers on the road, where lefties own a .563 SLG against him. The Yankees are clearly missing Aaron Judge, but their lefties can pick up the slack here against Littell.

Will Warren has deserved a better fate this season. He has a 4.82 ERA with a 4.07 xERA and a 3.71 FIP in his 104.2 innings of work. He has had some walk issues with a 10.8% BB%, but he also has a 26.7% K%, so he’s offset those control problems to a decent degree. With his K%, his LOB% of 69.8% should be better, hence the gap between his ERA and other metrics.

The Rays have picked it up a tad offensively in the second half of late, but still have just a .311 wOBA in 11 games with 48 runs scored. They’ve also emerged as a clear seller at the Trade Deadline based on how they’ve played of late.

Remember, select the Listed Pitchers to Start, which is under Game Lines at DraftKings.

Pick: Yankees -144 (Both Listed Pitchers Must Start)

Seattle Mariners (-148, 9.5) at Sacramento A’s

10:05 p.m. ET

A simple handicap here, as the Marlins take on the A’s. Bryan Woo and Jeffrey Springs are the listed pitchers for this one and I’m going to take a shot on a first inning prop. Springs has made nine starts at home, where he has a 4.27 ERA. He was much higher, but has made a few good starts lately. Also, he allowed a first inning run in five of his first six home starts, with a total of 11 runs allowed in those games.

He hasn’t allowed a run in the first inning of his last three home starts, but this will be his first home start in 17 days. He’s given up seven runs on 13 hits in two starts post-ASB and I think better than a 2/1 price for the Mariners to score in the 1st inning makes sense.

Seattle is fifth in MLB in OPS in the first inning, trailing the Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, and Dodgers. Springs’ last three home starts without a first inning run have been against the Guardians (23rd in OPS), Braves (14th in OPS) and Blue Jays (surprisingly, 20th in OPS). I’ll take my chances for the Mariners to score a first inning run at +205 (Under 1st Inning at DK).

Pick: Mariners 1st Inning Run Yes (+205)