MLB Best Bets Today July 31:
The MLB Trade Deadline has come and gone and teams will settle into their new normal for the rest of the season. For some, that means going for it, whether that’s a playoff berth, a division title, or one of the two highly-coveted byes for the Wild Card Round. For others, that means playing out the string, but some youngsters and part-timers will get valuable reps in hopes of establishing themselves as part of the team’s future. I wrote a recap of the winners, losers, and betting impact here.
We’ve got games today from 12:10 p.m. ET to 9:45 p.m. ET, so it will be a long day on the diamond with 28 of the league’s 30 teams in action. We’ll have a trimmed-down card tomorrow with just five games, but the Guardians and Tigers will enjoy the day off on Wednesday.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for July 31:
Seattle Mariners (-112, 9.5) at Boston Red Sox
4:10 p.m. ET
Getaway day baseball between the Mariners and Red Sox will feature George Kirby for the M’s and Brayan Bello for the Sox. Kirby is on some kind of heater right now. Over his last 10 starts dating back to June 4, he’s got a 1.88 ERA with a 1.95 FIP in 62.1 innings of work. He’s got a 64/8 K/BB ratio and has only allowed two home runs. He’s allowed a total of 15 runs (13 earned) and has limited the opposition to a 36.9% Hard Hit% with a 6.5% Barrel%.
Meanwhile, this season has been a struggle for Bello. He has a 5.27 ERA with a 4.69 xERA and a 4.57 FIP in his 100.2 innings of work. If we take out his first six starts of the season, when offense around the league was lagging, Bello has a 6.26 ERA with a 4.62 FIP in his last 13 starts. For a guy with a 50.8% GB%, the fact that he’s given up 16 homers is just staggering.
The Mariners have had a lot of offensive issues this season, but hitting homers hasn’t really been one of them, as they rank 10th in that department. Bello has allowed a homer in four straight starts for five total. Kirby has allowed the two homers in his last 10 starts, so these two guys are just built differently.
Bello also has a 6.11 ERA at home in 45.2 innings with a .298/.368/.481 slash allowed and a .367 wOBA against. His K% is lower, his BB% is higher, and his home run rate is also higher at home compared to the road.
Kirby is also pretty consistently good with the times through the order, as he’s allowed a .266 wOBA the first time, a .257 wOBA the second, and a .274 wOBA the third time. Bello is .383, .304, .340.
There are a few ways to play this. You could take Seattle full-game, but Andres Munoz and Yimi Garcia have worked three of four days. Tayler Saucedo and Collin Snider have worked back-to-back. You could lay a few more cents with the Seattle 1st 5 ML and go -120 vs. the full-game -112. Or, you could take the Seattle 1st 5 run line (-0.5) at +114.
Kirby has given up 10 of his 11 homers on the road, so I’ll err on the side of caution with the 1st 5 ML and pay a few cents more.
Pick: Mariners 1st 5 (-120)
Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants (-218, 7.5)
9:45 p.m. ET
The Trade Deadline came and went and Oakland made some pitching moves, but largely kept the offense intact. An offense that ranks third in wOBA at .369 since the All-Star Break. That leads MLB in July at .364. That actually ranks 16th for the season .307 and 13th in wRC+. It has been a competitive offense, if not a good offense, for most of the year.
Logan Webb has a 3.72 ERA with a 4.35 xERA on the season. He has a 2.95 FIP because he hasn’t allowed home runs, but location and contact management have been ongoing concerns for the Giants ace. In two starts since the All-Star Break, Webb has allowed eight runs on 17 hits in 11 innings. In his last start before the Break, he allowed seven runs. His Hard Hit% sits at 48.2% for the season.
It isn’t asking a lot of Oakland to scratch out a couple of runs in the first five innings here. It would be nice if they could do it with one swing of the bat like the Marlins did yesterday against Jeffrey Springs. While I don’t see that, Webb isn’t a big strikeout guy, which neutralizes one of Oakland’s problems, as he’s struck out 12 batters in his last 16 innings and only has a 20.4% K%, his lowest in a non-COVID year.
So, I’d like to think that the Athletics can make some things happen, a lot like they have throughout the month.
Pick: Athletics 1st 5 Team Total Over 1.5 (+100)
