MLB Best Bets Today June 11

Another day on the diamond comes our way on June 11 and it includes a handful of day games. Seven of the games start at 3:35 p.m. ET or later, so we get a lot of getaway action and some good distractions from the work day. As for me, my policy is still the same. I only look at games that have some lead time for readers.

In terms of the weather forecasts for today, since I always like to look, we have another very clean slate, much like we did yesterday. I don’t mean to harp on the weather, but again, it can help in terms of playing pitcher props or thinking about games where maybe tired teams will be racing the rain and swing a lot early in the count.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 11:

Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles (-131, 9)

6:35 p.m. ET

Casey Mize and Zach Eflin are the two starters in this one, as we have a coin flip type of game. Eflin has been pretty good over his last two starts, as he’s struck out 15 batters in 13 innings of work against just one walk. That’s the Eflin that we’ve seen for a while, as he’s been really efficient with his pitches and his only big blemish over those two starts was a Cal Raleigh two-run homer.

Mize, whose injury history might take an entire college semester to talk about, missed 15 days from May 8-23. In three starts since returning, he has allowed seven runs, six earned, on 18 hits with a 13/7 K/BB ratio. He has allowed a lot of hard contact, posting a 46.7% Hard Hit% and five Barrels.

His average exit velocity against is 93.2 mph in that span and he also has just an 8% SwStr%. Actually, over his last two starts, he only has an 8.9% and a 3.2% SwStr% with a 25% Chase Rate and a 19.5% Chase Rate. I don’t know that the quality of his stuff is really up to par right now and I like the way that Eflin has thrown the ball over his last two outings.

Eflin missed over a month early in the season and it’s almost like having to go through Spring Training again in some of those instances. So it can take a couple of starts to shake off the cobwebs and the rust and get back into form. To me, Eflin is really close to that, while I don’t believe that Mize is. 

Baltimore’s bullpen has been a real adventure this season and the Tigers have one of the league’s top relief units, so I’m good with keeping this one a 1st 5 wager and a run line play at that.

Pick: Orioles 1st 5 Run Line (+100)

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (-115, 9.5)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Rays and Red Sox add another chapter to their AL East rivalry, as Zack Littell takes the hill for the visitors and Walker Buehler gets the call for the hosts. My focus in this game is on the Red Sox offense, as Littell has really thrown the ball well for a while now, but he’s sitting on a giant ball of regression.

Littell gave up 13 runs in his first three starts of the season and has now allowed 20 runs over his last 10 starts covering 63.2 innings. But, let’s look a bit deeper. His 2.83 ERA comes with a 4.84 FIP in that span. He’s allowed 12 homers, but 10 of them have been solo shots. Sequencing has really been his friend during that span. Issuing only eight walks has a lot to do with it, but still.

The other thing is he only has 38 strikeouts in that span. The best thing a pitcher can do against the Red Sox is induce swings and misses. And they do it a lot. But, they’re a very good offense when they don’t swing and miss, as evidenced by the fact that they are sixth in wOBA for the season with the fourth-highest K% in the league. Littell doesn’t miss bats, so I don’t love this matchup for him.

I also don’t love where the Rays bullpen is right now. They’ve played a lot of close games lately and there are some tired arms back there with that group. So, rather than just look at the 1st 5, especially because of Littell’s pitch efficiency and ability to work deep into games, I like the full game Team Total Over 4.5 at -125 along with the 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5. The juice got more manageable overnight on the 1st 5 and I intended to play the full game all along.

Pick: Red Sox 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+100); Red Sox Team Total Over 4.5 (-120)