MLB Best Bets Today June 4

The Wednesday MLB card got underway bright and early with a couple lunchtime starts. There aren’t a ton of getaway day games, though, so most of the action will be completed under the lights or during sunset on June 4.

There are a lot of really interesting pitching matchups for tonight and a good number of competitively-lined games.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for June 4:

San Diego Padres (-115, 7) at San Francisco Giants

9:45 p.m. ET

Two slumping offenses continue their NL West rivalry as the Padres and Giants play Game 3 of this four-game set. The Padres own 1-0 and 3-2 victories thus far and will be looking for a third win in a row behind Nick Pivetta. The Giants will send southpaw Kyle Harrison to the hill.

Pivetta has been magnificent since joining the Padres, posting a 2.74 ERA with a 3.52 xERA and a 2.96 FIP in his 62.1 innings of work over 11 starts. He has a spectacular K/BB ratio and has been able to leverage the pitcher-friendly conditions of Petco Park and other places to great success with just an 8.2% HR/FB%. While it’s not Petco tonight, it is Oracle Park, another fine venue for hurlers.

Harrison just returned to the rotation to take the place of Jordan Hicks. He has only thrown 14.1 innings this season, but has a 2.51 ERA with a 4.44 xERA and a 3.91 FIP in his two starts and six total appearances. Harrison is running a .188 BABIP against and an 89.3% LOB%, two metrics that are absolutely going to regress to the mean in the not too distant future.

He did throw the ball well in two road starts at Washington and Miami, but he did allow 14 hard-hit balls out of 26 batted ball events. He has just 34 batted ball events, but opposing hitters have a 61.8% Hard Hit% against him. That’s more evidence that this extremely low BABIP is not going to stick around long.

The Padres were able to get the win yesterday without using Robert Suarez or Jason Adam, who had worked three of the last four days. Sean Reynolds should be the only completely unavailable reliever for what has been a very good bullpen this season. The Giants have a good bullpen, too, but I think it will be the Padres with a lead to protect.

Pick: Padres -115

Minnesota Twins (-198, 10) at Sacramento Athletics

10:05 p.m. ET

Another warm day in Sacramento should help the ball carry, as Zebby Matthews gets the call for the Twins. Some sources have Jeffrey Springs for the A’s, but his scheduled turn in the rotation is for tomorrow, so I don’t think that’s accurate.

Either way, I’m going to pick on Matthews here and play the A’s 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 at +110. Matthews has weirdly been an extreme fly ball guy at the MLB level. In doing so, he has allowed 13 home runs in just 51.2 innings of work. He owns a 6.62 ERA, even though he has 64 strikeouts in his 12 starts.

He’s allowed 10 runs on 16 hits so far this season and allowed 31 runs (28 earned) on 51 hits in 37.2 innings in 2024. For his MLB career, Matthews has a 13.4% Barrel% against and a 42% Hard Hit% against. He has had a lot of issues keeping the ball down and keeping it in the park. In Triple-A, opponents only had a 35.6% Pull% against him this season, but MLB foes have a 44.4% Pull%.

Even with an unsustainable 80.6% F-Strike%, Matthews has been giving up a lot of loud contact and his SwStr% should drop as his F-Strike% does. Also, he’s a big 6-foot-5 guy and I’d be worried about his landing spot on the Sacramento mound, something that a lot of pitchers have voiced concerns about over the course of the season. A’s pitchers have been crushed in the 1st inning and early in home games and I could see Matthews struggling to adjust here as well.

Pick: Athletics 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+110)