MLB Best Bets Today May 28

We’ve got a mix of getaway day action and nighttime baseball under the lights on Wednesday. Five games are 1 p.m. ET starts, with another 2 p.m. ET start and then staggered first pitches throughout the rest of the evening. It is a pretty interesting day on the diamond, but we are seeing a lot of teams tap into their depth and go with bullpen games during a tough stretch with limited off days.

As far as the weather for today, nearly half of the games have some sort of rain threat, and rainouts could happen in Baltimore and Philadelphia, depending on how the timing of the precipitation lines up. There could also be some games hampered by middle-inning delays, at which point live pitcher prop Unders could prove very fruitful.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 28:

Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs (-375, 7.5)

8:05 p.m. ET

It will be a bit of a cool and crisp day for May 28 in Chicago, as evidenced by the total of 7.5 between Tanner Gordon and Matthew Boyd. Of course, the Rockies are awful, so that also has something to do with the low total and especially something to do with the heavy line.

I’m looking at a pitcher prop here and it is the Colorado starter Over his walk number. Gordon is a workhorse type of guy at 6-foot-5 and the Rockies have let him work, as he’s thrown 12.1 innings over his first two MLB starts, going 89 and 75 pitches. His five most recent minor league starts have all been 5+ innings as well.

Gordon walked two in each of his Triple-A starts before making his first MLB start of 2025. He only walked one in that game, but then went down and walked two in each of the next two starts before getting recalled. He walked two against the Yankees last time out.

Gordon’s control numbers have been impressive in the minors and even in the Majors last season when he pitched 34.1 innings across eight starts. Both starts with two walks last season came on the road (Diamondbacks – in just nine batters; Mets – in three innings). The ball just does different things outside of Albuquerque, where the Rockies’ Triple-A team is, and Denver. Now he’s at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs are fifth in BB% overall, 10th in BB% against RHP, and second in BB% at home. At Over 1.5 Walks at +120 against one of the league’s more patient lineups, I think there’s good value on this prop.

Pick: Tanner Gordon (COL) Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+120)

Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (-135, 8.5)

8:05 p.m. ET

The Blue Jays and Rangers get back at it tonight with a matchup between spot starter Paxton Schultz and Tyler Mahle. Texas sure seems to have the better end of the pitching bargain here, but this line is a little sneaky I think. A lot of it has to do with some clear negative regression signs for Mahle, who enters with a 1.80 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 3.12 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, and 4.49 SIERA. SIERA is a rarely-used stat, but has been one of the more accurate ERA estimators for the remainder of the season that we’ve had.

Mahle is running a .231 BABIP against with an 84.5% LOB%. Those two numbers are extremely unsustainable for a guy like him. While he’s done a really good job in the contact management department this season, Mahle just doesn’t generate much margin for error with a K%-BB% under 10% and a 9.9% SwStr%. So, I can see why the market has been against him. I have been, not that it has worked out, but his 25.6% Chase Rate and his low Whiff% will eventually catch up with him.

It may very well be tonight, but one bet I like regardless is Mahle Under 4.5 Strikeouts at -140. It’s a chalky prop, but Mahle has only gone Over this once in his last four starts and it was with five strikeouts over 6.1 innings against the Rockies. 

Toronto has the lowest K% in baseball at 17.2% over the last 14 days, third-lowest over the last 30 days at 19.1%, and third-lowest for the season at that same number. They have the lowest SwStr% at 9.5%. They have the second-lowest K% against righties at 18.7%. Mahle’s been content to pitch to contact this season and Toronto puts a lot of balls in play.

Pick: Tyler Mahle (TEX) Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners (-218, 8)

9:40 p.m. ET

Trevor Williams and George Kirby meet up in a battle of right-handers here, as the Nationals and Mariners continue their series at T-Mobile Park. It has been a rough season for Williams with a 6.39 ERA over 49.1 innings of work, but it sure seems like brighter days are ahead. He has a 3.77 xERA and a 4.28 FIP, as he’s done a pretty good job of limiting walks and has only allowed nine Barrels thus far.

Williams has been victimized by a high BABIP and a low LOB%. He has a .300 BA against with a .346 BABIP and a 62.1% LOB%. According to Statcast data, Williams should have more like a .271 BA against and his .355 wOBA should look more like .318. His sweeper has been tremendous this season, but he’s had a lot of bad results on his hard stuff. I’d love to see more righty vs. righty changeups out of him to see if he can take the sting out of the opponents’ bats.

For as much success as the Mariners have had offensively, sliders/sweepers and four-seam fastballs have been the pitches that they’ve struggled with the most. Hopefully that plays into Williams’ pitch selection well and he can get a little help from the offense.

This will be just the second start of the season for Kirby, who allowed five runs on six hits in 3.2 innings of work last time out against the Astros. He allowed a 50% Hard Hit% and maybe deserved a better fate, but he’s still working his way back into tip-top shape. He allowed eight runs on 15 hits in 10 minor league innings.

The Nationals offense has been about a league average unit over the last 14 days and only sits three wOBA points behind the Mariners in that span. With some positive regression signs in the profile for Williams and Kirby still a bit of an unknown, I think the Nats can keep this one close.

Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-118)