MLB Best Bets Today May 7

A mix of day games and night games makes up the Wednesday May 7 MLB schedule, as there are getaway day games in St. Louis, Chicago, Phoenix, Sacramento, Washington D.C., and Milwaukee. As usual, I’ll bypass those games in the interest of lead time, but that’s where Greg Peterson’s article (linked below) comes in.

Fortunately, we still have more than enough nighttime games to think about and that’s precisely what I’ve spent the morning doing. Even more fortunate, we have fewer weather concerns today, with the exception of White Sox vs. Royals, so hopefully we can just handicap the pitchers and lineups without worrying about delays.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.

Here are the MLB best bets today for May 7:

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (-130, 9.5)

6:45 p.m. ET

We’ve got a Tyler and a Tanner tonight at Fenway Park, as Mahle and Houck toe the rubber for their respective teams. The Rangers came away with an easy win last night behind another strong effort from Nathan Eovaldi, but I’m not sure things will be as easy for them tonight.

Mahle has been very good this season, but the Regression Monster is lurking. He has a 1.19 ERA with a 3.44 xERA and a 2.50 FIP. He has yet to allow a home run over his seven starts and is running a .230 BABIP with an 86.5% LOB%. It is possible to carry a much better than average BABIP with the contact authority numbers that Mahle is putting up, as he ranks in the 88th percentile in Hard Hit% and 80th percentile in Barrel%. However, a lot of his other metrics are league average or worse.

He is in the 52nd percentile in K% with a 45th percentile Whiff% and a 39th percentile Chase%. When the Red Sox are able to make contact, they are a very dangerous offensive team. Boston is second in BABIP at .311. They lead MLB in Hard Hit% at 47.5% and rank second in Barrel% at 11.4%. The problem is that they are also fourth in MLB in K%. So, when they face more of a pitch-to-contact hurler, that’s when you want to look for spots to back them.

And I think they have one here today against Mahle, who has pitched well against both the Cubs and Dodgers, so his numbers are legit, but they just simply aren’t sustainable.

I think Houck may be figuring it out. The 6.38 ERA is ugly, but he does have a 4.58 xERA and a 3.95 xFIP, so the expected metrics point to some bad luck. His .327 BABIP against and 63.6% LOB% are both areas where positive regression is likely for a guy with a career .292 BABIP, 70.3% LOB%, and a pitcher slash of 3.77/3.60/3.68. Also worth noting that he gave up 11 runs in one start to Tampa Bay and that’s going to be an ERA killer for a while.

Houck gave up four runs in the first inning of his start against the Guardians on April 26. Since then, he’s allowed one run over his last 11 innings with an 11/1 K/BB ratio. Houck hasn’t consistently had a feel for his slider or splitter, so he’s gone more sinker-heavy in that span. His sinker has generated a higher Whiff% than last season and better results on the whole. A better sinker that he can play off of should help with his secondaries.

Houck’s spin rates are also up across the board this season, so I think there’s been a bit of an adjustment period for him. He also made a big change to his release point this season that he hasn’t quite been able to hold this season. So, I think some mechanical issues early on may be getting fixed. Texas hasn’t been a good fastball offense thus far and they are also below average on sliders and splitters.

Along with what I feel is a starting pitcher advantage, the Red Sox have the better advanced metrics as a bullpen and the better numbers over the last two weeks.

Pick: Red Sox -130

Philadelphia Phillies (-130, 8.5) at Tampa Bay Rays

7:05 p.m. ET

Cristopher Sanchez and Shane Baz are the listed hurlers here, as we get a lefty vs. righty matchup in the Sunshine State. That doesn’t bode well for the Rays. Their right-handed hitters against lefties are only batting .182/.275/.283 with a .257 wOBA and a 67 wRC+ on the season. Like most small-market, analytically-driven teams, the Rays try to leverage platoon advantages as much as possible, so Sanchez should get a steady diet of righties here.

That is actually to his benefit because the Rays are 27th in batting runs value against sinkers and Sanchez’s best pitch is his changeup, which he throws most often to righties. The slider has been a more prominent pitch against lefties from a usage standpoint and has also been Sanchez’s worst pitch of the three. So, I think he can play to his strengths here and that should help him generate a lot of Whiffs.

There are some health concerns with him right now, as his arm angle and release point have been moving around a bit, but he has still been effective with a 3.45 ERA, 3.07 xERA, and a 3.59 FIP. He remains one of the top ground ball pitchers in the game and has upped his K% to 28.9% this season, over 8.5% higher than last season. I don’t know if that sticks, but he is generating more swing-and-miss this season and that’s a good thing no matter what.

Sanchez has only allowed three Barrels this season. Baz, who has solid numbers with a 3.86 ERA, 3.08 xERA, and 3.65 FIP, allowed three Barrels in his last start. I think he’s starting to fall off a bit of a cliff here. In his last three starts, Baz has allowed six Barrels and a 49% Hard Hit%. He only has an 8.1% SwStr% in that span and just a 23% Chase Rate, with starts against the Yankees, Padres, and Royals.

Just simply from a batted ball distribution standpoint, it’s hard not to like the Phillies here. With storms and rain hovering in the area, it will be in the 80s with humid conditions in Tampa. That is not conducive for Baz, who also has a 51% FB% in the span of his last three starts. Meanwhile, Sanchez is a worm killer. 

The Phillies only used two relievers yesterday, so the bullpen is in pretty good shape here. I like this matchup and will back them again tonight.

Pick: Phillies -130

Toronto Blue Jays (-125, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels

9:38 p.m. ET

Things continue to go poorly for the Angels, who are without Mike Trout and are the worst offense in baseball over the last two weeks, posting a .205/.251/.350 slash with a .267 wOBA. I guess by park-adjusted wRC+, it is actually the Rockies who are the worst offense, but the Angels have the worst wOBA and also the highest K% at 28.2%.

That seems like a bad set of trends going into this matchup against Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays. I am not and have never really been a big Berrios fan, but he’s thrown the ball well in most of his outings this season. He has a 3.98 ERA with a 4.45 xERA and a 4.41 FIP, as a low K% and high BB% are factoring into the xERA and FIP. The nice thing here is that not only do the Angels strike out a lot, they also don’t walk very much.

Berrios normally has a home run issue and his 10.9% Barrel% is indicative of that this season. But, Angel Stadium should be a good spot for him to pitch to quell that issue a little bit and it is worth noting that 11 of the 13 Barrels allowed by Berrios this season have been against division opponents. He’s faced the Orioles twice, Red Sox twice, and Yankees once. This is a dramatic step down in class to say the least.

Yusei Kikuchi comes into this outing with a 4.21 ERA, but a 4.98 xERA and a 5.06 FIP. His BB% is up and his HR/9 has gone back up towards his 2023 levels when he was with the Blue Jays. Obviously Toronto should know their former teammate pretty well, so that may be yet another advantage that the visitors have.

Kikuchi continues to allow a high Hard Hit% and a high Barrel%. I also have no faith in the Angels to fix the control issues or the command woes. Toronto has had some offensive issues lately, but they are a top-10 offense against lefties by both wOBA and wRC+, so this should be a decent matchup for them, especially with a 10.2% BB% in that split.

Kikuchi ranks well below average in Pitching Run Value, xERA, exit velocity, Chase%, Whiff%, BB%, Barrel%, Hard Hit%, and GB% per Statcast. His spin rates and velocity are down significantly this season. I don’t love Berrios either, but he should have a better matchup here and Toronto should also be better acclimated tonight after playing their first road game west of Houston for this season last night.

Pick: Blue Jays -125