MLB Best Bets Today May 8
A full MLB schedule for Wednesday features several early starts, as day games are on the docket in St. Louis, Chicago, Los Angeles, Cleveland, Oakland (doubleheader!), Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. Getaway day games can be tricky handicaps, especially because teams are in the portion of the schedule now where off days are fewer and farther between, so they are easier to look forward to.
We’ve got seven games on Thursday, so more than half of the league will enjoy one of those off days. But we’ve got a lot of baseball to get to before then.
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Here are the MLB best bets today for May 8:
Houston Astros at New York Yankees (-155, 9.5)
7:05 p.m. ET
Spencer Arrighetti and Carlos Rodon are the listed hurlers for this one in the Bronx, as we’ve seen this total shoot up a full run from 8.5 to 9.5. I got eyes on Arrighetti last time out against Cleveland when he allowed two runs on four hits over 5.2 innings with six strikeouts and three walks. I have to say, the raw stuff is really, really good. His 8.27 ERA doesn’t show it and he’s allowed way too many baserunners with 10 walks and 22 hits allowed in 16.1 innings, but he’s got 21 strikeouts and has only allowed one home run.
Arrighetti has run really bad in two stats that are constantly open to variance – BABIP (.438) and LOB% (57%). With a 32.7% Hard Hit% and only one Barrel allowed over his four starts, these numbers are entirely too low and I fully expect him to experience some positive regression. He’s running a .377 wOBA per Statcast with a .309 xwOBA, so that’s another example, as he ranks in the 95th percentile in Barrel% and 80th percentile in Hard Hit%. He also ranks in the 97th percentile in Extension, so his fastball should play up and he does work up in the zone with it to induce weak aerial contact.
Arrighetti’s arsenal features high spin rates and is actually quite deep with five pitches in his arsenal. I think the Astros are sitting on a special arm here and I think his potential is obscured by some of the bad luck that he has experienced.
Rodon is coming off of his worst start of the season against the Orioles, as they touched him up for seven runs in four innings, including three homers. This was building for Rodon, who allowed five Barrels and a 60% Hard Hit% in that start. He had a 58.3% HH% against Milwaukee the start prior and now has three starts in his last four with a HH% of 50% or higher. Despite a low GB%, he hadn’t been barreled a ton, but it seemed like it was coming and it did happen in that outing for the Yankees.
The southpaw draws another good lineup against lefties, as the Astros are sixth with a 123 wRC+. The Orioles are second at 138. Rodon has faced a lot of good lineups against lefties to this point and has mostly held his own, but the contact management numbers and some of his recent returns in terms of SwStr% have been concerning to me. He’s really not getting a lot of chases outside the zone, as he ranks in the 29th percentile per Statcast in Chase%.
The Houston bullpen has stabilized a bit over the last couple of weeks, and while it hasn’t been as reliable as New York’s, I still think the price is good enough here to take a shot on the underdog Astros.
Pick: Astros +130
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins (-115, 7.5)
7:40 p.m. ET
The Mariners and Twins get together tonight for the third game of the four-game series. It will be George Kirby and Chris Paddack as the listed hurlers and we have an even better pitching matchup tomorrow on getaway day with Logan Gilbert and Pablo Lopez.
The Under 7.5 is what I’m looking at in this game. Kirby has been masterful as usual this season with a 3.76 ERA and a 2.07 FIP. His 65.4% LOB% is the sole reason his ERA is north of 3, as he’s continued to carry an elite walk rate and has even done better with home run prevention this season. The 26-year-old righty has a 4.3% HR/FB% after running a 10.7% mark last season, which is still very good, but now he seems to be elite in that department as well.
Kirby allowed 13 runs over a two-start stretch in early April and has allowed a total of three runs in four starts since. He’s allowed just a 30% Hard Hit% on the season and seven Barrels, with zero over his last two starts. In the eight-run blow-up against Cleveland, Kirby ran a 20% Hard Hit%, so there was a ton of bad luck involved in that start.
The Twins are a league average offense against righties on the season, but they got healthy with seven games in a two-week period against the White Sox. This is not solely against right-handers, but they posted a .285/.358/.512 slash against the White Sox over those seven games and scored 44 runs.
Their 24% K% against righties ranks eighth, so they will strike out a lot and Kirby is a guy that can rack up the strikeouts.
But, the Mariners are also creating a lot of wind power against righties as well. They’ve actually struck out at the highest clip at 29%. Paddack has a 4.78 ERA with a 4.24 FIP and a 3.92 xFIP. He allowed nine runs to the Orioles, who may very well have the best lineup in baseball. Otherwise, he has allowed eight runs in his other five starts, so he’s been pretty efficient. He also has a 27/7 K/BB ratio, so he’s not issuing walks. Between Paddack and Kirby, they’ve faced 298 batters and allowed 11 free passes.
Both relief units have been solid this season, as the Mariners are third in ERA at 2.64 and the Twins are 11th at 3.54. Seattle is also fourth in FIP at 3.42 and the Twins are 11th at 3.60, but they just recently got back their best reliever in Jhoan Duran.
I think this will be a low-scoring affair with a lot of strikeouts.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-102)
