MLB Best Bets Today September 10

Key Highlights:

• Pirates vs. Orioles Pick
• Royals vs. Guardians Prediction
• Cardinals vs. Mariners Best Bet

Every team will take the field on Wednesday, as some teams wrap up series with getaway day games or night games, while others simply continue on playing the opponent that they started playing on Monday or Tuesday. What is nice is that three of the getaway day games are on the West Coast, so we still have some additional time to dive into those. The other getaway day game is in Arlington, where Texas looks for a sweep of Milwaukee.

It only partially worked out yesterday with Noah Cameron against the Guardians, but be sure to isolate those games with starting pitchers that are reaching new highs in innings and might be showing some signs of decline.

This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.

My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for September 10:

Pirates vs. Orioles Prediction (+129, 7.5)

6:35 p.m. ET

The Orioles are on the verge of getting officially eliminated from playoff contention, putting a cherry on the turd sundae that this season has been. But, they’re 6-1 in the month of September and top prospect Samuel Basallo has injected some life into the ballclub, even though he’s off to a slow start, his presence just seems to have had an impact on a team trying to end on a high note. They’ve won three games in walk-off fashion during that stretch, including last night against the Pirates.

Tonight’s game features Paul Skenes and Tyler Wells, as the Pirates are deservedly a big favorite with the best pitcher on the planet on the bump. But, Wells looked very solid in his 2025 debut, posting five innings of two-run ball with five hits and no walks allowed. He did have some command issues with three Barrels allowed and he’ll need to clean those up since he won’t be in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

But, Wells looked pretty good on his rehab assignment, posting a 2.49 ERA over six starts and 25.1 innings with 24 strikeouts against six walks. The Pirates are 24th in wOBA against RHP over the last two weeks and a 10.7% BB% is doing a ton of heavy lifting. Wells hasn’t been issuing a lot of free passes, so that should work out in his favor here.

Odds are that Skenes will be really good, as he has a 1.98 ERA after six shutout innings against the Dodgers and has an ERA under 2.00 for his career. His road ERA is about a run higher than his home ERA and PNC Park is a pretty good pitcher’s venue as well. Long story short, while I think Under 3.5 for the 1st 5 at -105 has a good chance of coming in, I do like Orioles 1st 5 Run Line +0.5 at -105 a little bit more. I think I prefer the wiggle room with an Orioles lineup that seems to have a bit more life right now.

Pick: Orioles 1st 5 Run Line +0.5 (-105)

Royals vs. Guardians Prediction (-109, 8)

6:40 p.m. ET

We’ve seen a little bit of interest in the Royals, who will go with a Johnny Wholestaff approach in tonight’s game. Matt Quatraro decided on right-hander Jonathan Bowlan as the starter, but he is likely to deploy Sam Long and Daniel Lynch at some point. Cleveland is very heavy on platoons and a bullpen game will make it tough for the Guardians to continue to get favorable matchups. Although, “favorable” is relative, since some of their platoon bats aren’t doing anything.

Bowlan’s first MLB appearance after getting recalled was on August 24. He has worked 8.2 no-hit innings across seven appearances with an 11/4 K/BB ratio. Even though he’s right-handed, Bowlan has been better against lefties throughout his MLB career, holding them to a .309 wOBA over 70 PA compared to a .338 wOBA for righties in 104 PA. Recently-recalled right-hander Luinder Avila could be another option and he throws upper 90s with high strikeout rates in the upper minors.

Bowlan is 6-foot-6. Long is 6-foot-1 with his left-handed arm slot. Lynch is 6-foot-6 with his left-handed arm slot. Primary relievers Lucas Erceg and Carlos Estevez are both extremely well-rested, as Erceg hasn’t pitched in five days and Estevez in four. I think this is a tough matchup for a Guardians team that has exploded in an inning here or there, but still struggled on offense overall.

Logan Allen has allowed 17 runs over his last three starts covering 16 innings of work. He’s not a big swing-and-miss guy and struggles to work on the inner half of the plate. The Royals have been good about using the opposite field against Cleveland pitchers over the years. Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo were able to effectively mix their pitches and keep the Royals off-stride. Allen has a five-pitch mix, but none of them grade all that well.

I think the Royals take tonight’s game and give themselves a chance at a series split on Thursday.

Pick: Royals -112

Cardinals vs. Mariners Pick (-226, 7.5)

9:40 p.m. ET

The two late games feature the two biggest favorites, including this Cardinals vs. Mariners matchup. It will be Michael McGreevy for the Redbirds and Logan Gilbert for the M’s. Gilbert owns a 2.15 ERA with a .141/.193/.268 slash and a .204 wOBA at home, but a 5.29 ERA on the road with +130, +134, and +201 on his BA/OBP/SLG split and his wOBA is 139 points higher. So, in essence, he’s been really bad on the road and really good at home.

He’s at home here for just the second time since August 7. In his last home start, he allowed a solo homer, but struck out 13 Athletics over six innings of work. In his home starts, Gilbert has allowed 1, 1, 3, 0, 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 3, and 1 run. The Cardinals are 28th in wOBA against RHP over the last two weeks, as they’re just playing out the string on the season. They’ve got a 27.6% K% against a 6.7% BB% in that split in 344 plate appearances, the sixth-most in that sample size.

So, I really don’t expect them to do much of anything tonight. That puts the onus on McGreevy, who should get a bump from T-Mobile Park being as pitcher-friendly as it is. He throws six different pitches and has a Hard Hit% under 40% and a Barrel% under 8%, so it’s reasonable to think that he can hang in there and give the Cardinals a decent effort. He was crushed by the Giants in his last outing, but had a season-low 45.5% F-Strike%. He’s not good enough to pitch behind in a lot of counts.

The Mariners have used their top three relievers in back-to-back days, but Gilbert should be able to give them length tonight and give manager Dan Wilson some options in the late innings. The only thing that could run up Gilbert’s pitch count is the number of strikeouts he could rack up against a Cardinals lineup with the third-highest K% against RHP over the last 14 days and fourth-highest in MLB over the last 30 days. Unfortunately, 7.5 is a little steep for Gilbert’s K prop and so is Over 17.5 Outs Recorded at -155, but I do expect him to pitch very well.

Picks: Cardinals/Mariners Under 7.5 Runs (-110)