MLB Best Bets Today September 3
Key Highlights:
- Guardians vs. Red Sox Prediction
- Angels vs. Tigers Prediction
Following a rare Tuesday card in which we only had 14 games, we’re back to the full slate of 15 on Wednesday. As usual, we do have a smattering of day games, but most of the action will be at night. Getaway day games in Detroit, Washington D.C., Arizona, and San Diego give us some early matchups to follow, while the rest of the card will wait until the evening hours.
Like I’ve mentioned before, keep an eye on pitchers who are having their innings limited and those that are reaching new career-highs in workload. You can find some good player prop values on those guys and make some +EV bets that aren’t taking those factors into account.
This article will run Monday-Saturday and I’ll write up a standalone preview for Sunday Night Baseball on Sundays. This year, we’ll also have MLB best bets from Greg Peterson posted with overnight lines.
My tracking sheet is here. For transparency sake, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSiN (2024, 2023, 2022).
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 3:
Guardians vs. Red Sox Prediction (-155, 9)
6:45 p.m. ET
The Guardians have not had much fun during their trip to Fenway Park, even finding a way to lose a game in which Brayan Rocchio and Austin Hedges each homered off of Garrett Crochet. They’re an underdog to avoid the sweep tonight with Joey Cantillo on the bump against Brennan Bernardino.
Cantillo became a full-time starter for the Guardians on July 3. Over those eight starts, he’s walked at least three batters in five of them. Now he faces a very potent and dangerous Red Sox lineup in a daunting place to pitch. This is the type of place where pitchers try to make the perfect pitch and wind up walking guys.
Over the last 14 days, the Red Sox have a 9.4% BB% against LHP. They have a 9.1% BB% on the whole against all pitchers over the last 30 days. Two of Cantillo’s three starts under 3+ walks have been against the White Sox, who are 29th in BB% against LHP this season. Boston is ninth for the season as a whole.
This can be found under Pitcher Props at DraftKings, with Cantillo to have 3+ Walks Allowed at +135. He’s back in the bigs for a team desperate for a win and on a pitching staff that has allowed 17 runs in this series.
Pick: Joey Cantillo (CLE) 3+ Walks Allowed (+135)
Angels vs. Royals Prediction (-182, 9)
7:40 p.m. ET
This game represents the fourth MLB start for 21-year-old Caden Dana, as he made two relief appearances earlier this season and three starts last season. The 11th round pick in 2022 has pitched to a 5.93 ERA with a 5.91 FIP and a 5.72 xFIP in the hitter-happy PCL over 82 innings covering 18 starts. While there are reasons to be a little bit skeptical of Dana’s Triple-A numbers because nearly every ballpark plays like Coors Field, the high BB% is something that I am really worried about here, especially when you pair it with a 44.5% Hard Hit%.
He is young with room to improve, but Stuff+ has not liked his fastball at all, and he throws it about 53% of the time. By no means are the Royals a great team with the lumber, but they are 14th in wOBA and have a 104 wRC+ against RHP over the last 14 days. Furthermore, they are a top-10 offense in batting run value against fastballs in the second half after really being terrible at hitting them in the first half.
The Angels rank 29th in RHP over the last 14 days with .257 and a 28.2% K%. I’ve loved what Ryan Bergert has done with the Royals thus far, as he’s allowed just nine total runs in five starts and eight earned runs in his 28.1 innings of work. He’s also limited the free passes with eight walks against 25 strikeouts.
To me, everything just points towards a Royals 1st 5 Run Line at -0.5 and -120. This will be Bergert’s second home start and I would expect that he’ll throw well on the home mound.
Pick: Royals 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-120)
