MLB Best Bets Today October 1

We have four MLB Wild Card games on Wednesday. Who knows how many we will have on Thursday, as every game on the slate today is an elimination game in the best-of-three format. Teams that have won Game 1 are 12-0 in the series since the current Wild Card format was installed for the 2022 season. Will any of the Guardians, Padres, Yankees, or Reds flip that script? The law of averages and the randomness of playoff baseball say yes, but people probably thought that last year too.

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook because they are widely available to readers and because of some of our betting tools. I highly, highly, highly encourage you to shop around for the best lines. Sometimes they will be at DK. Oftentimes, they will not. Do what you can to shop around and get as much bang for your buck as possible.

Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.

Here are the MLB best bets today for October 1:

Before we get to the game breakdowns, let’s look at the adjusted series prices and see if any are worth a bet.

Tigers -290 // Guardians +240 (Tigers were -110)

Cubs -360 // Padres +295 (Cubs were -125)

Red Sox -200 // Yankees +170 (Yankees were -165)

Dodgers -900 // Reds +650 (Dodgers were -285)

Of these four, the one bet is the Yankees at +170. Carlos Rodon and the Bronx Bombers are big favorites tonight and would be favored tomorrow in what would likely be Connelly Early vs. Cam Schlittler. If you read yesterday’s article, you know that I was on the Red Sox, thinking that game was more of a toss-up than how it was lined. It played out that way. But, I did think that the Yankees had the advantage as the series went along, something that I expressed in my Red Sox-Yankees Series Preview.

Obviously the Comeback Kids of the Cuyahoga are favored today, but I’m not sure they’d be favored tomorrow in a Jack Flaherty vs. Slade Cecconi matchup. I actually don’t really like that matchup for Cleveland, even though Cecconi is a better option than the lefties Parker Messick or Logan Allen because the Tigers hit lefties way better than righties.

I think a lot of people will be intrigued by the Padres at nearly 3/1. Dylan Cease and Shota Imanaga following Andrew Kittredge today and that seems coin flippy. Nothing has been confirmed for Game 3, but I guess it’s probably Yu Darvish vs. Jameson Taillon. That’s another coin flippy game. I’m not betting it because I stand by my original stance that Chicago’s power prowess gives them the advantage.

I guess I can’t fault the Reds for not throwing Andrew Abbott on short rest today with such a low-percentage chance to advance. Nick Lodolo was needed on Sunday in hopes of preserving a playoff spot, so he threw game action on his side day. So Cincinnati is down to Zack Littell against Yoshinobu Yamamoto and this series is over.

As I did yesterday, I’ll scribble some thoughts on all four games.

Tigers at Guardians (-132, 6.5)

1:08 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Money keeps trickling in on Cleveland as we get closer to first pitch. Tanner Bibee gets the call today against Casey Mize. Mize is not Tarik Skubal, so the Guardians have a better chance today. Also, he throws right-handed, so they really have a better chance today.

Bibee has been spectacular of late, as he allowed just four runs on 16 hits in 27.2 September innings with a 26/5 K/BB ratio. That was on the heels of two really rough months in July and August. Bibee is a guy who can get flustered and lose his control, so I am concerned about that as a Guardians fan and from a betting standpoint. He was outstanding in two big starts against Detroit to end the regular season with one run allowed over six innings in both of them.

Mize posted a 3.87 ERA with a 3.70 xERA and a 3.89 FIP in 149 innings. What worries me as a Guardians fan today is that because the Tigers are going with Jack Flaherty tomorrow, any signs of struggle from Mize and AJ Hinch can deploy Tyler Holton, Troy Melton, and Brant Hurter to throw the Guardians off of their platoon-based approach. And the right-handed bats on the bench like Jhonkensy Noel and Johnathan Rodriguez are downgrades to their left-handed complements.

Hinch can play the leverage game if he wants to, so it is imperative that Cleveland gets a lead and plays from in front. Mize did have a 4.04 ERA away from Comerica Park and was +21, +13, +32 in the BA/OBP/SLG department home vs. road. It is a big, spacious venue that allows pitchers to get away with mistakes. Mize did struggle in the second half with a 4.92 ERA and a .490 SLG against, but, like Bibee, got better in September.

No official bet here, but I am considering 1st 5 Over 3.5 (-110) and Over 6.5 (-115), but what I mentioned about Hinch playing the matchup game to end the series right here could suppress the scoring potential. We’ll also have a breeze blowing in from RF.

Padres at Cubs (-119, 6.5)

3:08 p.m. ET (ABC)

Andrew Kittredge will open for the Cubs today and Shota Imanaga will be the bulk reliever. As I mentioned this morning on VSiN By The Books, Imanaga allowed 18 of his 31 home runs the first time through the order. Righties hit 27 of the 31. The plan here is to hope that Kittredge can get you past Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado unscathed and that you can limit Imanaga’s exposure to seeing them maybe once. 

Four Cubs relievers were needed, but none of them threw more than 17 pitches. I’m guessing that Craig Counsell will be uber-aggressive here. He’s got Colin Rea, Aaron Civale, and Michael Soroka who could all throw multiple innings if need be. Even if he burns any of those righties early, he has three lefties and three righties to use in higher leverage.

I’m sure people have made a huge deal about Dylan Cease’s 5.58 road ERA compared to his 3.61 home ERA. While his K% was down and his BB% was up, he actually allowed a higher SLG (.400) at Petco Park than he did on the road (.399). His road LOB% was 60.4%, so he fell victim to a lot of poor sequencing luck. Obviously the pressure rises pitching on the road in a hostile postseason environment, so that still merits watching, but Cease wasn’t that different on the road. Certainly not a two-run difference in ERA worse.

For as great defensively as the Padres are, they didn’t play well behind Cease for some reason. His contact management numbers weren’t that bad at all, as his 37.4% Hard Hit% was well above league average and 8.6% Barrel% was league average adjacent. A homer-suppressing wind should help him, too, as he had a 24th percentile GB%.

I think this is a fair line. It indicates that the Cubs are the better offense and the pitching setup is probably pretty close to equal. I think the first two games are better live betting opportunities than pre-flop plays.

Red Sox at Yankees (-186, 7.5)

6:08 p.m. ET

Brayan Bello enters this game with a 3.35 ERA, 4.42 xERA, and a 4.19 FIP as he makes his first career postseason start. Obviously there are some negative regression signs in that profile. Bello’s 49.8% GB% ranks in the 84th percentile, so that’s excellent. What is not excellent, especially against this lineup and in the playoffs, is that he has a 13th percentile Whiff% and a 16th percentile K%.

Bello’s .268 BABIP against was easily the best of his career, as he was over .300 in each of his two full seasons and over .400 in his rookie year with 57.1 innings of work. While he does stay off the barrel pretty well, I’d be concerned about his ability to do that here against the Yankees. Usually guys reach back for another tick or two with the intensity of the playoffs. For sinkerball, pitch-to-contact guys like Bello, that could be a problem. A harder sinker has less time to dive in the zone.

So, we’ll see how that goes. I just think that the margin for error for a guy like Bello is not as big as it is for others, especially in the spectrum of the playoffs.

Of course, Carlos Rodon is a guy who generally has really good stuff, but he’s got a 6.64 ERA with a 4.20 FIP and a 3.06 xFIP in 20.1 postseason innings. He has 28 strikeouts against just five walks, but has given up 15 runs on 25 hits. He shut Cleveland down in two starts last season, but did struggle against the Royals and also Dodgers, failing to make it through four innings in each outing.

The sample size is too small to formulate any conclusions. But, pitchers are acutely aware of a lot of things and baseball is a very mental game. Still, I would rather look at the larger sample for Rodon and see his .187 BA against with big improvements in the Hard Hit% and Barrel% areas relative to his first two seasons with the Yankees. New York’s bullpen is clearly a worry, as we saw yesterday with Luke Weaver’s meltdown, but I do think Rodon will pitch well.

I’m much less confident in Bello. So, like I did yesterday with the Dodgers, it’ll be Yankees 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 at -120. To me, the Yankees have the clear offensive and pitching advantages for the early part of this game. The Red Sox were eighth in wOBA against LHP during the season, but 19th in September. They sure didn’t do much against Max Fried.

Pick: Yankees 1st 5 Run Line -0.5 (-120)

Reds at Dodgers (-287, 8)

9:08 p.m. ET

The Reds are in a really tough spot today having to use Zack Littell instead of Andrew Abbott, who pitched on September 27, and Nick Lodolo, who threw 26 pitches in relief on Sunday after starting last Thursday. Cincinnati obviously had to get into the playoffs, so they used Lodolo in relief on his side day.

Littell does not profile as a good matchup at all. I’ve talked at length about how the playoffs are predicated on hitting home runs. We obviously saw that from the Dodgers yesterday between Shohei Ohtani’s two round-trippers and Teoscar Hernandez’s big blow. Littell doesn’t walk anybody, but it comes at a cost. He’s allowed 36 homers in 186.2 innings of work. He also has just a 17.1% K%, the lowest of his career outside of his rookie season and the COVID-shortened campaign.

He hasn’t discriminated either, allowing 16 to lefties and 20 to righties, so everybody seems to have a shot today for the Dodgers.

And this is NOT a good matchup for the Reds offense at all. Yoshinobu Yamamoto struck out nearly 30% of the batters he faced and posted a 52.8% GB%. He finished the regular season with a 2.49 ERA, 2.73 xERA, and a 2.94 FIP and was even better in the second half than he was in the first half.

Yesterday’s Dodgers lineup looked fully engaged and ready to defend their World Series title. I fully expect Yamamoto to shut down a bad Reds offense and for Littell to give up at least a couple of long balls. Hopefully there are people on because I am taking the shot on Dodgers 1st 5 Alt Run Line -1.5 at +114. I don’t dislike -1.5 for the full game at -136, but it is a little more chalky. Though I fully expect this to be a comfortable win for LA before flying east to Philadelphia.

Pick: Dodgers 1st 5 Alt Run Line -1.5 (+110)