MLB Best Bets Today October 29
The World Series has become a best-of-three and now Toronto has home-field advantage back. Well, in theory anyway, as Game 5 is a big one tonight at Dodger Stadium. The Blue Jays clawed back to even the last series at 2-2 and lost Game 5, only to win both games at home and advance to this point. This is the first time this postseason that the Dodgers have allowed the other team to win two games in a series. In fact, Game 4 was only their third loss of the entire postseason.
We get a Game 1 rematch here between Trey Yesavage and Blake Snell. The Dodgers are still a noteworthy favorite for the series (-195 at DraftKings), but the Blue Jays showed immense resilience in evening up the series last night after the 18-inning game on Monday. Are there any bets to be made?
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for October 29:
Blue Jays at Dodgers (-207, 8)
8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Once again, LA is a big favorite at home, priced around where they’ve been in each of the previous two games. Snell is in need of a bounce back effort, as he struggled mightily last time out against Toronto. In that game, both player props cashed with Yesavage Over his walk total and Snell Over his hits allowed.
Like I said when handicapping that game, Snell is a guy who has a high percentage of his plate appearances end in strikeouts or walks. The Blue Jays are an aggressive team that puts a lot of balls in play. Snell typically excels with limiting hard contact because of all the deep counts and hitters having to protect the zone with two strikes. The Blue Jays had the fewest two-strike plate appearances in baseball. They also had the highest batting average in the league at .193. It’s hard to hit with two strikes and even Toronto doesn’t do it well, but they do it better than others.
In that first start, Snell allowed five runs on eight hits with four strikeouts and three walks. I also mentioned how Snell has become more of a ground ball guy this season, thus upping his BA and BABIP against. Rogers Centre’s infield plays faster than most, as the venue yielded a BA 10 points higher than the xBA on ground balls.
Perhaps Snell doesn’t face the same issue here at Dodger Stadium, though it will be very hot at first pitch and a sun-baked infield can speed up the baseball a bit as well. I’ll take a shot on Snell Over 4.5 Hits Allowed at +106 again, even though +106 is pretty far off of the +130 price from Game 1.
In terms of Yesavage, the Dodgers are seeing him for the second time and that has to be some sort of boost. His extremely high arm slot coupled with a devastating splitter can be a learning curve for hitters. He allowed two runs on four hits with three walks and five strikeouts in Game 1. Like I said, Over 2.5 Walks Allowed cashed there and has cashed in each of his last three postseason outings. Today, the books have adjusted and his walks total is still 2.5, but the Over is now minus juice. It was +135 to the Over in Game 1.
So I’ll shy away from that and instead look at Yesavage Over 3.5 Hits Allowed at -117. He’s gone Over this number in each of his last three postseason starts and the Dodgers have a lot less swing and miss than the Mariners of last round did (and the Yankees, too). Also, he’s gone Over this number in five of his seven career starts. I’ll take my chances with the Dodgers facing him for the second time.
Mike Petriello of MLB.com had a really good tweet thread about this series, mentioning how Toronto’s BABIP is .300, while LA’s is .239. The Dodgers have been hitting way too many balls in the air that haven’t really amounted to much. With Yesavage, they get a ground ball guy, so that should force more balls on the ground, which should lead to more hits.
As far as the side and total go, look, the Blue Jays have shown more than enough tenacity to be worth considering at this type of price point irrespective of who is starting. And it’s not like Snell was good in Game 1. The Dodgers bullpen had issues again in Game 4, too. Blake Treinen and Anthony Banda effectively put the game out of reach. I think Toronto is worth considering in a game that may become a battle of the bullpens when all is said and done. It’s more of a price grab than a strong position, but Toronto does seem more analytically prepared for this series than the Dodgers do based on everything we’ve seen to this point.
Picks: Blue Jays +168; Trey Yesavage (TOR) Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-117); Blake Snell Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+106)
