MLB Betting Splits Systems Update:

The DraftKings and Circa betting splits features on VSiN.com are always a huge page view draw for our subscribers. Many recognizable VSiN personalities, notably Josh Appelbaum, offer insights on this unique feature regularly for our followers, and Bill Adee is known for routinely sharing his thoughts on them in the daily morning newsletter. Why have they become such a big deal? Well, bettors are enamored with knowing what their cohorts are partaking in. Secondly, for the most part, majority bettors at DraftKings don’t win, and fading them can often be as sound a betting strategy as there is. 

In my own experience studying these splits over the last couple of years, I have come to the same conclusion. That said, there are always specific situations in all sports in which teams win (or lose more definitively), and I love finding these spots and sharing them with readers. I call these spots “Betting Splits Systems,” and this article is an update to the MLB systems I’ve been offering. To summarize the early 2025 findings, they have been remarkably consistent. Like 2023 and 2024, the majority bettors in 2025 started the season in fine fashion, only to bury themselves in a hole as the season wore on. That is unfortunate for bettors, but a blessing for me, my systems, and anyone who believes in them. 

 

Before proceeding, it seems that I am going to have to wait until the offseason to study the data from Circa. The theory here is that because Circa services larger and perhaps more sharp bettors that the findings will be uniquely different from those of DK. Once enough data from them is accumulated and organized, I will conduct that analysis. 

As I have for all of the other sports, I have updated a set of actionable betting systems that VSiN Pro Subscribers can take advantage for the rest of the season. We will continually track these systems and share the daily plays in our MLB Analytics Reports as well.

Below is a summary of the 2025 first half season findings, with the 2024 and 2023 results also noted. As you can see, bettors improved somewhat in 2024 over the 2023 season in all of the six measured categories but have gone back negatively a lot in 2025.

– 2024 Majority handle on sides: 1366-1064 (56.2%), -129.73 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%)
Through Sunday 7/13, this majority has started the 2025 season on a 797-638 (55.6%) pace, netting -133.3 units, and a ROI of -9.3%. Recent history shows that in each of the last three seasons, bettors have started well, only to fade once the calendar turned to May. The consistency has been somewhat remarkable.

– 2024 Majority number of bets on sides: 1399-1044 (57.3%), -129.28 units – ROI -5.3% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%)
Through Sunday 7/13, this majority has also cratered for the 2025 season, going 803-633 (55.9%) for -129.99 units, and an ROI of -9.1%. Again, this majority has started the season well in each season from 2023 to 2025, but eventually floundered as the season wore on.

– 2024 Majority handle on run lines: 1181-1260 (48.4%). -108.79 units, ROI -4.5% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Through Sunday 7/13, this majority has gone 629-804 (43.9%) for -153.92 units and an ROI of -10.7% to start the 2025 season. This is after another very good start. On 4/7, when I completed my last update, I called the pace at that time “clearly not sustainable.” It wasn’t, as this majority group is now having its worst season since I started looking at it by far.

– 2024 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1165-1280 (47.6%). -97.78 units – ROI -4.0% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%)
Through Sunday 7/13, this majority group is 719-705 (50.5%) for -99.5 units and a ROI of -7.0%. This group also followed the pattern of starting well but struggling as the season wore on. This year’s ROI is very close to the average of the last two full seasons, although it is actually the least negative of the majorities studied so far.

– Majority handle on totals: 1200-1139 (51.3%). -52.9 units – ROI -2.3% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%)
Through Sunday 7/13, this majority group is 703-671 (51.2%) for -35.1 units and an ROI of -2.6%. This is the first area of concentration in which 2025 season bettors are right on line with their usual pace. Majority bettors are favoring Overs on totals by about a 2:1 ratio, but have not far better when backing Unders, hitting 56.8% on those.

– Majority number of bets on totals: 1186-1121 (51.4%), -47.1 units, ROI -2.0% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%)
Through Sunday 7/13, this majority group is 672-681 (49.7%) for -77.1 units and an ROI of -5.7% to start the 2025 season. Majority bettors made a major improvement in this area from 2023 to 2024, but it seems they may be going back to the 2023 pace this year. We’ll continue to follow. Again, something to watch. Overs are backed at a 1.9:1 ratio compared to Unders, but the latter are winning at a 54.4% pace. I’ll have more on that later. 

If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season. 

Whenever I write about these DraftKings Betting Splits, I like to remind readers why I have adopted the strategy of following this subject matter. It was over two years ago now that I set out to study the college football betting splits data provided on VSiN.com by DraftKings. I felt that a book like DraftKings, known for servicing all levels of recreational bettors, and now the #1 book in terms of market share, providing this type of data would offer a ton of great betting opportunities if savvy bettors knew how to interpret the numbers. As it turns out, I was right, but by somewhat different means than I thought I would find. 

Most of the theories I have believed about public bettors for other sports came to fruition with baseball as well, specifically that they love favorites and they love Overs as compared to Unders on totals. In fact, majority handle bettors have opted for favorites in 86.5% of the games and Overs in 67.6% of the games in 2025. This is dramatic, although interestingly, the numbers are up 6% on favorites but down 3% on Overs. I hope that my analysis on the success of these groups betting Unders has played at least a small part. It is somewhat of an ironic mix, however, as bettors often take favorites because the pitching is superior, particularly the starter. Yet they are still hoping for a lot of runs. Many of the systems you’ll see below go against the grain and side more with underdogs and Unders. 

One side note on what I just detailed regarding the public’s love for favorites. On games featuring a road team favored so far in 2025, the majority handle has opted to back the road favorite 94.4% of the time! In a nutshell, knowing what I know about baseball betting data, this is a major reason why public bettors lose. 

For those who have not read my similar analysis for football and basketball, I attempted to analyze the records of “majority bettors” at DraftKings, specifically their preferred sides and totals for games. I break it down further sometimes by percentage of majority, by different line ranges, and by some other variables. There are two fields of analysis for each wagering option that DraftKings shares the data for both sides and totals: 1) handle, 2) number of bets. These can produce varied results, but in general, I subscribe to the theory that total handle is a little less “public” than total number of bets. The former tends to include more serious bettors while the latter works in a lot of “weekend warriors”.

In the following betting splits systems I have developed, I will share with you some situational spots in which bettors were far worse or better than the average numbers shown above. These will provide some consistent opportunities to wager on or against throughout the rest of the season, and we will continue to share these opportunities daily in our popular MLB Analytics Reports. If you haven’t been using these for MLB or any of the other sports we offer, I highly recommend adding them to your MLB handicapping arsenal. They are loaded with great handicapping stats, trends, and, of course, the popular bullpen systems that I have been sharing with readers for the past few years on VSiN. My son AJ and I not only share the key trends and systems, we also tell you exactly which games meet the criteria every day!!! 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of ASB 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2 1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and a ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in divisional games since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and an ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the underdogs in these divisional contests. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and a ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up and down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%. Diving deeper into specifics, these three different systems will continue to be tracked for 2025:

1.    Majority handle bettors backing home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.2 units and ROI of +4.7%.

2.    Majority handle bettors in May games of 2023-25 were just 660-557 (54.2%) for -143.93 units and an ROI of -11.8%

3.    Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and an ROI of -13.1%

4.    Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured two consecutive terrible playoff seasons in 2023 and 2024, with a combined record of 38-43 (46.9%) for -18.84 units and an ROI of -23.3%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!

The betting splits on VSiN.com are essentially running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers. In the spirit of continuous improvement, we have redesigned and expanded the VSiN betting splits page, the most popular destination on VSiN.com. 

The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook, and now Circa Sportsbook as well, is updated every five minutes. We ping their databases and see what data has changed, and then indicate the change with an arrow next to the percentage.

Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice new touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team, and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was. 

Unlimited access to betting splits and the MLB Analytics Reports is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.