MLB Betting Splits Systems Update for the 2026 Season:
In continuing with my series on studying the DraftKings, and now Circa, betting splits features on VSiN.com, I’m here to update the system records and other miscellaneous data for the 2026 Major League Baseball season. Make no mistake, these betting splits pages are always a huge page view draw for our VSiN pro subscribers. Many recognizable VSiN personalities offer insights on this unique feature regularly for our followers, and Bill Adee is known for routinely sharing his thoughts on them in the daily morning newsletter.
How should bettors use the data? Are there any strong or weak spots in trusting public bettors’ opinions on MLB? Well, if you’re new to these betting splits articles, I’m here to share some answers for you and to tell you where you can get the qualifying plays every day of the season, of course, that is on the VSiN MLB Analytics Reports.
In my own experience with studying these splits over the last few years, I have come to this conclusion. In general, the betting public at DraftKings loses over the long haul, and in large part because they overwhelmingly opt for favorites and Overs on totals in just about every sport. That said, there are always some specific situations in all of the sports in which they do win (or lose more definitively), and I love finding these spots and sharing them with readers. I call these spots “Betting Splits Systems.”
To summarize the 2025 MLB season for DraftKings bettors, they took a major step back after a pretty strong 2024 season. In fact, you’ll see just below that they recorded their worst ROI seasons of the three years I’ve tracked in half of the six basic metrics. This was even after getting off to a pretty strong start when I updated these numbers about midway through April last season.
Below are the full 2025 season performance metrics, with the ’23 & ‘24 results also noted:
– 2025 Majority handle on sides: 1361-1096 (55.4%), -235.8 units – ROI -9.6% (2023 full season ROI was -10.7%, 2024 full season ROI was -5.3%)
– 2025 Majority number of bets on sides: 1345-1109 (54.8%), -291.1 units – ROI -11.9% (2023 full season ROI was -8.9%, 2024 full season ROI was -5.3%)
– 2025 Majority handle on run lines: 1064-1387 (43.4%). -291.6 units, ROI -11.9% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%, 2024 full season ROI was -4.5%)
– 2025 Majority number of bets on run lines: 1239-1196 (50.9%). -172.9 units – ROI -7.1% (2023 full season ROI was -7.9%, 2024 full season ROI was -4.0%)
– Majority handle on totals: 1167-1175 (49.8%). -125.5 units – ROI -5.4% (2023 full season ROI was -2.6%, 2024 full season ROI was -2.3%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 1143-1167 (49.5%), -140.7 units, ROI -6.1% (2023 full season ROI was -8.3%, 2024 full season ROI was -2.0%)
If you’re wondering why all of the results don’t add up to the same amount of games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null, plus there were several pushes on totals throughout the season.
Whenever I write about these DraftKings Betting Splits, I like to remind readers why I have adopted the strategy of following this subject matter. It was about two years ago that I set out to study the college football betting splits data provided on VSiN.com by DraftKings. I felt that a book like DraftKings, known for servicing all levels of recreational bettors, and now the #1 book in terms of market share, providing this type of data would offer a ton of great betting opportunities if savvy bettors knew how to interpret the numbers. As it turns out, I was right, but by somewhat different means than I thought I would find.
Most of the theories I have believed about public bettors for all of the other sports have come to fruition with baseball as well, reiterating again that they love favorites and they love Overs as compared to Unders on totals. In fact, majority handle bettors opted for favorites in about 80% of the games and Overs in more than 72% of the games in 2025. This is dramatic, particularly on the aspect of totals, as in one sense it doesn’t jive, as bettors often take favorites because the pitching is superior, particularly the starter. Yet they are still hoping for a lot of runs. Because of these ugly generalities, you’ll see below that many of the systems go against the grain and side more with underdogs and Unders.
For those of you who have not read my similar analysis in the past for football & basketball, I basically tried to analyze the records of the “majority bettors” at DraftKings and the side/total they preferred for games. I break it down further sometimes by percentage of majority, by different line ranges, and by some other variables. There are two fields of analysis for each wagering option that DraftKings shares the data for both sides and totals: 1) handle 2) number of bets. These can produce varied results, but in general, I subscribe to the theory that total handle is a little less “public” than total number of bets. The former tends to include more serious bettors, while the latter works in a lot of “weekend warriors”.
In the following betting splits systems I have developed, I will share with you some situational spots in which bettors were far worse or better than the average numbers shown above. These will provide some nice, consistent opportunities to wager on or against throughout the rest of the season, and we will continue to share these opportunities daily in our popular MLB Analytics Reports. If you haven’t been using these for MLB or any of the other sports we offer, I highly recommend adding it to your MLB handicapping arsenal. They are loaded with great handicapping stats, trends, and, of course, the popular bullpen systems that I have been sharing with readers for the past few years on VSiN. My son AJ & I not only share the key trends and systems, but we also tell you exactly which games meet the criteria every day!!!
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and a ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 626-591 (51.4%) for -51.8 units and an ROI of -4.3%. While this isn’t positive after three full seasons, it is an improvement of about 4.4% on the overall numbers, and a chance to respect majority bettors opinions on some perhaps less popular games.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as Majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%. Diving deeper into specifics, these four different systems will continue to be tracked for 2026:
- Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
2. Majority handle bettors backing home favorites in the months of May, June, and July games of 2024-25 were 656-480 (57.7%) but for -137.9 units and an ROI of -12.1%, a full 3.6% worse than the normal return.
3. The month of August has been a decent one for trusting majority handle bettors backing road teams the last two seasons, 223-178 (55.6%) for a minimal -9.4 unit loss and an ROI of -2.3%, an improvement of over 6% on the usual return.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5%. These are typically high bet volume games, so bettors have lost big in October.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and a ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
The betting splits on VSiN.com are essentially running live and will change in the days, hours, and minutes before game time. The numbers logged for all of my analysis for this subject matter are the final numbers. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers.
The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook, and now Circa Sportsbook as well, is updated every five minutes. We ping their databases and see what data has changed, and then indicate the change with an arrow next to the percentage.
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice new touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was.
Unlimited access to betting splits and the MLB Analytics Reports is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.
