MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
We are 10 days into the 2026 MLB season, and some notable things are happening in the world of bullpen performance, and consequently, my bullpen systems. VSiN readers who have been following my baseball work for the past few seasons are keenly aware of how much I value bullpens in the grand scheme of handicapping, and I demonstrate this through my regular tracking and sharing of a set of unique, proprietary, and successful systems utilizing my team bullpen ratings. Well, I am here to give you a first update of the season to share the updated records and discuss some of the things we’ve seen so far. You will see that the highlights so far are the early performances of the newer correlation angles, as well as the IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER.
For those of you perhaps new to VSiN, and hence new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently over the course of a season will lead to profits, or at least minimize losses. It has done so every year I have shared the logic. It seems that even after many years of starting pitchers lasting fewer and fewer innings each season on average, oddsmakers are still predicating their lines on lineups and starting pitchers. In many cases, the relief pitchers are almost ignored. This is where the value is derived from if you have a solid and reliable set of bullpen ratings, systems, and even score simulations. I have all of this and share it with VSiN subscribers every day throughout the season.
In looking at the 2026 bullpen situations so far, you will see that the accrued stats to date don’t necessarily reflect my current bullpen power ratings. If you follow this column regularly throughout the season, you will probably come to the realization that I am somewhat conservative in the movement of these ratings. I don’t tend to overreact to a bad game or two along the way. I tend to move things more when there is a consistent level of performance. However, I have made some notable early-season adjustments based upon the early performances we’ve seen. Of the noteworthy numbers to date…
– Atlanta’s bullpen has been fantastic in the early going, leading the league in overall ERA, WHIP, and last seven games WHIP. However, they are getting outs in the field, not by overwhelming hitters. The Braves are 23rd in strikeouts per 9 innings right now. That does affect my ratings.
– Seattle has also been very good out of the bullpen so far, although the Mariners did lose one in extra innings on Sunday, giving up a 10th-inning run to the Angels after a late comeback.
– Milwaukee has been solid and holds on to my #1 power rating. The Brewers have given up most of their runs in non-leverage situations and have the best K’s/9 rate in the league.
– Other bullpens expected to be strong and off to solid starts include the Dodgers and Mets.
– Teams perhaps outperforming expectations right now with their bullpen performance levels would clearly include the Marlins and Rockies.
– Some of the bullpens that were ranked lowly out of the gate and are fulfilling that lack of promise include the Nationals, Royals, Athletics, and DBacks.
– The bullpens most underperforming right now would include the Cubs, Astros, and Rays.
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first 10 days of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20, went 1,138-1,004 for +0.15 units and an ROI of 0%. For 2026, this EASY system is off to a slow start, 60-58 for -16.96 units, and an ROI of -14.4%. I’m not entirely surprised by this, as the things tend to normalize more the deeper we get into the season, as we determine “what is what.”
Although I always remind readers that easiest isn’t always best, the nearly dead-even returns on 2,142 games last year validate my belief that bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early 2026 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in ‘25. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For ’26, these teams are 0-2 for -2.13 units and an ROI of -106.5%.
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 3-4 for -2.06 units and a ROI of -29.4%.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For ’26, these teams are off to a 19-13 start but for a loss of -0.15 units.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 9-13 for 3.01 units.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and a ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow, since prices aren’t typically that high. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, success continues, as these teams are off to a strong 19-9 start, with +5.62 units and an ROI of +20.1%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The ’26 record so far is 7-1 for +4.57 units, as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall. I would expect this to cool.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the ’26 campaign. The ’26 teams meeting this criteria are 12-6 but for -4.42 units so far.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 9-3 start for +0.87 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was historically below standard (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, an ROI of +6.2%! The ’26 season is off to a reasonably good start, 17-19 for +0.58 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 705-754 record, for +23.82 units (ROI 1.6%) in the full 2024-25 seasons. I believe this angle has some merit in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but wound up 377-404 for +13.98 units. The 2026 record is 15-17 for -0.8 units thus far.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 7-11 start for -3.18 units and an ROI of -17.7%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 2-3 for -1.01 units and an ROI of -20.2%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 8-3 for +7.74 units.–
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to an atrocious start of 5-11 for -13.64 units as streaks of both sorts are being ended quickly.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 3-5 for -3.75 units.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my Beginning of Season 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for any key additions or subtractions to the rosters. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 4/5)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. ATLANTA: 1.08
2. NY METS: 1.66
3. TEXAS: 2.04
4. SEATTLE: 2.34
5. LA ANGELS: 2.68
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. TAMPA BAY: 7.98
29. ARIZONA: 6.5
28. CHICAGO CUBS: 6.31
27. KANSAS CITY: 6.27
26. WASHINGTON: 5.85
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 0.75
2. SEATTLE: 0.98
3. LA DODGERS: 1.03
4. SAN DIEGO: 1.06
5. NY METS: 1.11
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. ATHLETICS: 1.82
29. TAMPA BAY: 1.74
28. KANSAS CITY: 1.67
27. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.66
26. WASHINGTON: 1.65
Top 5 Bullpen K’s/9 innings
1. MILWAUKEE: 11.9
2. PITTSBURGH: 11.84
3. MIAMI: 11.73
4. HOUSTON: 11.48
5. CLEVELAND: 10.8
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 6.11
29. WASHINGTON: 6.3
28. ST LOUIS: 6.39
27. ATHLETICS: 6.8
26. ARIZONA: 7.5
Top 5 Bulplen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. SEATTLE: 0.67
2. ATLANTA: 0.73
3. NY METS: 0.9
4. SAN DIEGO: 0.91
5. PITTSBURGH: 1.12
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. ATHLETICS: 1.71
29. MINNESOTA: 1.68
28. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.68
27. WASHINGTON: 1.61
26. KANSAS CITY: 1.54
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (3/30)
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. ATLANTA: +9 points
2. ST LOUIS: +7
2. NY METS: +7
4. COLORADO: +6
4. SEATTLE: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. WASHINGTON: -8 points
2. SAN FRANCISCO: -6
3. LA DODGERS: -5
4. CHICAGO CUBS: -4
4. MILWAUKEE: -6
4. BOSTON: -4
4. KANSAS CITY: -4
4. CLEVELAND: -4
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 4/6)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. MILWAUKEE: 27
2. SAN DIEGO: 26
3. LA DODGERS: 25
4. SEATTLE: 21
5. ATLANTA: 18
6. BOSTON: 18
7. NY YANKEES: 14
8. NY METS: 14
9. CLEVELAND: 14
10. TEXAS: 13
11. PITTSBURGH: 13
12. CINCINNATI: 13
13. CHICAGO CUBS: 10
14. TORONTO: 9
15. DETROIT: 9
16. MIAMI: 9
17. PHILADELPHIA: 8
18. LA ANGELS: 5
19. BALTIMORE: 3
20. KANSAS CITY: 3
21. HOUSTON: 2
22. ATHLETICS: 2
23. TAMPA BAY: 1
24. SAN FRANCISCO: 1
25. ST LOUIS: 0
26. COLORADO: -1
27. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -3
28. ARIZONA: -4
29. MINNESOTA: -8
30. WASHINGTON: -16
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
