MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for April 14:
The MLB Bullpen Systems I’ve been tracking for VSiN readers in recent seasons are running again for the 2025 season. So far, there aren’t any real highs to get excited about nor lows to make us anxious. Not a whole lot of profit or loss either way. As usual, we have already seen some expected weaker bullpens like the Reds and White Sox climb the charts, while teams that have been solid in that regard, like Milwaukee, for instance, stumble out of the gate. I’m here to share the updates to the systems plus all of the current key bullpen stats, just as I will try to do on a weekly basis for the rest of the season. That said, recognize that you can get the continuously updated and qualified bullpen systems, plus much more on our daily MLB Analytics Reports for the entire season.
The clear highlight from this past week’s action was the performance of our stronger bullpen teams thwarting losing skids. Those riding losing streaks of three games or more were 7-2 last week for nearly five units of profit. That historically successful angle now produces over 22% ROI for the young season.
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Of course, most people who have come to trust these bullpen systems have fallen in love with the better bullpen/small underdog angle, and while that is off to a slower start than usual, typically once we get a good 20-25 games into the season, my bullpen ratings, as well as the odds on games, tend to stabilize.
Before we dig into the updated results of the regular season, just a reminder. I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. They just aren’t accounted for as much as starting pitching by oddsmakers, thus giving bettors value in typically at least 1/3 of games or more.
At one point in the 2023 season, I was asked by readers…What’s the easiest way to use these bullpen ratings? Well, there are more profitable ways (by ROI), as shown by the drill-down systems below, but the easiest method I have now detailed is in the very first system below. I have called it fittingly THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. In the 2023 season, by simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units. It lost about twice that last season, so we’re hoping for a bounceback year in 2025. Even with those losing numbers, however, it represented about half the loss the average MLB bettor betting every MLB game would have endured, as the usual ROI of this method is around -4.4%.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday 4/13:
The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 115-97 for +1.2 units and a ROI of 0.6% so far in the regular season. This is a bit below the 2023 season standards but far better than a year ago. Furthermore, for those blindly playing nearly every game on the board, it remains a very advantageous strategy, as the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down -11.7 units.
Even considering the decent start above, narrowing down the plays and using greater discernment in your baseball wagering can provide an even bigger edge. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I personally am still playing these daily, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 8-2 for +3.04 units. However, at this point, we are still just a single highly priced loss from going negative.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a huge start, 11-2 for +6.9 units, a ROI of 53.1%.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 9-2 for +4.44 units. Don’t be surprised if/when this system turns the other way quickly.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost 26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 30-48 for -12.49 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 26-43 for -14.35 units. I believe part of this is a reaction to several highly rated bullpens out of the gate faltering and vice versa.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 23-17 for +7.59 units, but they did drop -3.44 units last week. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (13-9, +4.3 units) are uncharacteristic but are heading negative over the last 10 days or so.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 20-15 for +1.82 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, off a very strong week, it is showing out well, 13-7 for +4.58 units, an ROI of 22.9%.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 4/13)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 1.51
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.82
3. NY METS: 1.95
4. CLEVELAND: 2.25
5. SEATTLE: 3.05
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 6.35
29. LA ANGELS: 6.29
28. MILWAUKEE: 6.28
27. COLORADO: 5.92
26. ATHLETICS: 5.19
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ARIZONA: 0.84
2. SAN DIEGO: 0.91
3. NY METS: 0.96
4. DETROIT: 0.99
5. CINCINNATI: 1.01
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. WASHINGTON: 1.86
29. LA ANGELS: 1.75
28. COLORADO: 1.68
27. ATHLETICS: 1.63
26. MILWAUKEE: 1.59
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. NY YANKEES: 12.17
2. HOUSTON: 11.93
3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 10.55
4. ATHLETICS: 10.53
5. TORONTO: 10.4
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. MIAMI: 6.24
29. CINCINNATI: 6.85
28. CHICAGO CUBS: 6.95
27. SEATTLE: 7.2
26. COLORADO: 7.21
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. ARIZONA: 0.64
2. CINCINNATI: 0.78
3. SAN DIEGO: 0.85
4. NY METS: 0.85
5. TORONTO: 0.88
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. WASHINGTON: 1.81
29. LA DODGERS: 1.73
28. MIAMI: 1.68
27. TAMPA BAY: 1.56
26. LA ANGELS: 1.55
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 4/7:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. CLEVELAND: +8 points
1. CINCINNATI: +8
3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: +7
3. PITTSBURGH: +7
5. ARIZONA: +6
5. SAN DIEGO: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. LA DODGERS: -8 points
2. MINNESOTA: -6
3. NY YANKEES: -5
3. TEXAS: -5
3. MIAMI: -5
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 4/14)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. CLEVELAND: 28
2. SAN DIEGO: 24
3. LA DODGERS: 22
4. NY METS: 21
5. ARIZONA: 20
6. SAN FRANCISCO: 18
7. ATLANTA: 16
8. DETROIT: 16
9. HOUSTON: 15
10. MINNESOTA: 15
11. NY YANKEES: 14
12. SEATTLE: 14
13. PHILADELPHIA: 13
14. BALTIMORE: 13
15. TORONTO: 12
16. MILWAUKEE: 3
17. CHICAGO CUBS: 2
18. KANSAS CITY: 2
19. CINCINNATI: 2
20. ST LOUIS: 2
21. TEXAS: 1
22. TAMPA BAY: 0
23. ATHLETICS: -1
24. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -1
25. BOSTON: -2
26. PITTSBURGH: -3
27. MIAMI: -4
28. LA ANGELS: -5
29. WASHINGTON: -15
30. COLORADO: -16
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating. For this week, note the unusually huge separation between the #15 & #16 teams, or in other words, the bottom & top halves of the league. At this point, we are into a situation of have and have not in terms of bullpen strength.
As we head into this week’s games, there are three teams on a 3+ game winning streaks (SEA, CIN, SD) and three teams on a 3+ game losing skids (TEX, COL, PIT).
