MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for April 28:
Last week, I opened my article on my MLB Bullpen Systems by proclaiming the great news that they enjoyed a huge week. Unfortunately, for this week’s overall system, we gave some of it back. However, we are still over +12 units in the black for the season and enjoying over a 32-unit edge as compared to the average MLB bettor playing nearly every game so far. That said, this week’s update is sort of “meh” in terms of the system records, but I have promised to keep them updated regularly.
Before digging into the system records, I thought I’d share some other tips on the other things you can get out of this article each week. Because a couple of them caught my eye this past Monday, and it kept me from some potential losses. The Tampa Bay Rays showed up on last week’s update being tied for having the “hottest” bullpen, as they were the biggest mover upward in terms of my ratings. There was a point in early April where it looked like the Rays’ relief corps might wind up being an Achilles’ Heel for them. Instead, you’ll see below that Tampa Bay is again atop my biggest movers list after another great week. In fact, going into Tuesday’s series opener versus Kansas City, the Rays bullpen has a WHIP of 0.97 and ERA of 1.59 in its last 14 games. As a result, they go into the KC series on a five-game win streak, having just swept the injury-riddled Padres in San Diego.
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Another team that was trending negatively on last week’s bullpen report was Baltimore, as their last seven-game WHIP at that time was an UGLY 2.04. If you handicap games like me, you know that this is a potential landmine, especially for a team that tends to play to higher prices. I backed off the Orioles a few times this past week because of it, and I’m glad I did, as they went 1-5 this week in two road stops at Washington and Detroit. In fact, their bullpen rating fell so sharply that Detroit wound up being the bullpen system play in all three games. I know hindsight is the worst thing for a sports bettor, but I’m just sharing this because it is another way to use these reports going forward to sharpen up your plays.
The clear highlight from this past week’s action was the continued strong performance of the big favorites angle in which the chalk has the better bullpen rating and a winning percentage advantage of 19% or more. Naturally, there is a lot of foundation to this angle as you’re backing a far better team in the end, one that probably isn’t prone to giving up late leads.
Before we dig in to the updated results of the regular season, however, just a reminder. I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. They just aren’t accounted for as much as starting pitching by oddsmakers, thus giving bettors value in typically at least 1/3 of games or more.
What’s the easiest way to use these bullpen ratings? Well, there can be more profitable ways (by ROI) requiring fewer plays, but the easiest method I have now detailed in the very first system below. I have called it fittingly THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. By simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units in the 2023 season. It lost about twice as much last season, so I’ve been hoping for a bounce-back year in 2025. We could be on our way to getting that.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 4/27:
The quickest way to play the bullpen system
– For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 203-166 for +12.36 units and an ROI of 3.3% so far in the regular season. This is a solid early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down -20.22 units.
Even with the strong start above, there are still bettors who prefer narrowing down the plays and using greater discernment in their baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I personally still play these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams are off to an uncustomary good start, 21-5 for +8.83 units. However, at this point, we are still just a few highly priced losses from going negative. Besides the two horrible teams in Colorado and the White Sox, who are almost unbackable at this point, we are hoping to get some fo the other lesser teams into these high underdog prices.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a VERY strong start, 26-7 for +8.82 units, an ROI of 26.7%.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the ’23 & ‘24 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in ’25, these teams are unusually positive, 21-8 for +2.38 units. However, this system has been reverting to its usual pattern over the last few weeks.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 59-90 for -21.19 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 51-79 for -23.3 units. This is definitely a disappointment early in the season, but it can still be made up quickly.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 32-33 for 0.13 units (ROI -0.2%), but have dropped -10.9 units over the last three weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (19-13, +6.9 units) are uncharacteristic.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, I examined teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings that were looking to extend three-game winning streaks. I found that those teams went 241-168, resulting in +11.33 units, a respectable return on investment (ROI) of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 35-28 for -4.48 units. It seems that there have been fewer than normal streaks reaching into the four-game and more range so far this season.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a reasonable start, 24-17 for +3.06 units, an ROI of 7.5%.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 4/27)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 1.63
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.3
3. HOUSTON: 2.64
4. DETROIT: 2.66
5. NY METS: 2.76
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 6.2
29. PHILADELPHIA: 5.28
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 4.99
27. LA ANGELS: 4.95
26. MILWAUKEE: 4.87
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN DIEGO: 0.97
2. DETROIT: 1.01
3. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.03
4. HOUSTON: 1.05
5. TAMPA BAY: 1.09
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. WASHINGTON: 1.63
29. BALTIMORE: 1.59
28. LA ANGELS: 1.54
27. COLORADO: 1.51
26. PHILADELPHIA: 1.5
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. TORONTO: 10.94
2. HOUSTON: 10.18
3. LA DODGERS: 10.04
4. CLEVELAND: 9.99
5. NY YANKEES: 9.95
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 7.05
29. CINCINNATI: 7.14
28. SEATTLE: 7.29
27. MIAMI: 7.33
26. KANSAS CITY: 7.45
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. HOUSTON: 0.72
2. DETROIT: 0.74
3. MINNESOTA: 0.84
4. CHICAGO CUBS: 0.91
5. KANSAS CITY: 0.93
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. BALTIMORE: 2.23
29. NY METS: 1.71
28. ARIZONA: 1.66
27. TORONTO: 1.58
26. ST LOUIS: 1.55
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 4/21:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. ATHLETICS: +8 points
1. TAMPA BAY: +8
1. HOUSTON: +8
3. DETROIT: +7
3. WASHINGTON: +7
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. ARIZONA: -8 points
2. SEATTLE: -7
3. TORONTO: -6
4. COLORADO: -5
5. MILWAUKEE: -4
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 4/28)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN DIEGO: 33
2. HOUSTON: 27
3. LA DODGERS: 25
4. DETROIT: 24
5. SAN FRANCISCO: 23
6. CLEVELAND: 22
7. NY YANKEES: 21
8. ATLANTA: 21
9. NY METS: 21
10. MINNESOTA: 17
11. TAMPA BAY: 16
12. BALTIMORE: 13
13. TEXAS: 12
14. TORONTO: 12
15. ARIZONA: 11
16. ATHLETICS: 10
17. MILWAUKEE: 6
18. KANSAS CITY: 3
19. PHILADELPHIA: 2
20. SEATTLE: 2
21. CHICAGO CUBS: -1
22. CINCINNATI: -1
23. BOSTON: -2
24. ST LOUIS: -2
25. PITTSBURGH: -2
26. LA ANGELS: -3
27. MIAMI: -5
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -8
29. WASHINGTON: -11
30. COLORADO: -14
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are four teams on a 3+ game winning streaks (TB, DET, MIN, CIN) and four teams on a 3+ game losing skids (BAL, LAA, SD, COL).
