MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for August 11:
We’ve been on a major roll with our MLB Bullpen Systems lately, particularly since the All-Star break, so it was a disappointment seeing the results of this past Saturday & Sunday roll in. In fact, the negative returns on Saturday put to rest a season-best five-day winning streak for our easiest system, and things only got worse on Sunday, which wound up being our third-worst daily performance of the season, a day that wiped out all of the profit we had gained earlier in the week. Overall, it wasn’t all bad though, as there were several positive highlights once again. I will get into that, and some data that an intuitive reader asked me to research this past week, as I share another weekly MLB Bullpen Systems update. Oh, before I forget the big news and reason to keep reading, there is a new system we will be tracking after a hunch led me to the findings. Let’s get right to it.
As I just noted, there was a negative return on the easiest system this past week, albeit just around a couple units. However, some of the other stuff again fared very well. Here are some of the highlights from the past seven days:
– Correlation system #2 was big once again. If you recall, fading strong bullpens, but bad starting pitchers continued to thrive, as these teams lost another -4.38 units.
– Better bullpen teams with win percentages >= 19% better than their opponent enjoyed a perfect 6-0 week for +6 units, and are now 18.1% ROI for the season. Those winning less than that margin were 0-2 for -4.25 units and are nearing red territory as expected.
– Better SM bullpen teams riding at least three-game winning streaks added another +2.73 units last week and are now +19.06 units over the last month!
– And for our new system, upon a hunch, I dug in and discovered that fading worse bullpen teams on losing streaks of at least three games has also had some merit, as those teams are -26.75 units for the season, an ROI of -8.3%.
Before the unveiling of all of this week’s system records update, I thought I would share some research I conducted upon request of a reader last week, who I believe may be a “superstitious” bettor, as he asked me to look at daily streak data for the systems as well as stats by day of the week. I figured why not, since I was a little curious this weekend after we went into Saturday on a 5-game daily winning streak for the easiest system, only for it to fall apart on Saturday and Sunday. In fact, Sunday’s -8.2 unit loss was the third-worst day of the season for the system and took away all of the profit we had generated earlier in the week.
What I found on the easiest system daily breakdown was that our five-day winning streak last week was, in fact, the longest such streak of the season. There were several four-day streaks, but none longer. It confirmed what the reader had said about “winning five days in a row”.
From a daily perspective, besides the unfortunate, horrendous day that came about on Sunday, the third-worst of the season next to June 23rd and July 9th, I also found some proof of just how well the system has been doing lately. Overall, we have had 14 days this year where the system produced over +5 units in a day, and five of those have come since the All-Star Break.
Another interesting aspect I examined was the results by day of the week. These also produced some intriguing findings, and if you have been following the system all season, you might have “felt” them as well. You’ll see in a bit that the easiest system is +1.53 units for the season. These are the results by day of week, with Wednesday and Friday being far and away the best days:
1. Wednesday: 136-105, +20.5 units
2. Friday: 142-114, +12.81 units
3. Tuesday: 114-106, +-3.99 units
4. Saturday: 141-127, +-4.44 units
5. Monday: 87-83, +-6.21 units
6. Sunday: 140-126, +-8.52 units
7. Thursday: 77-71, +-8.62 units
I don’t want to focus too much on these tidbits, as I believe there is a touch of randomness that goes with it, although it could be argued that Friday being a big day for better bullpens could be explained in that Thursday is typically a travel day, or a getaway game day for teams, thus bullpens should be better rested on Friday’s.
Remember, to fully implement these bullpen-focused strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 8/10:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 832-725 for +1.53 units and an ROI of +0.1% so far in the regular season. We gave -3.47 units back last week after a tough Saturday/Sunday. However, even still, when you consider that over 1,550 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, the advantage of this angle over simply blindly playing teams is immense. In fact, the average MLB bettor not using it and playing all MLB games this season would theoretically be down over -95 units.
Although I always remind readers that easiest isn’t always best, the positive returns on over 1,550 games validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, most or all are still faring very well. THIS is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles are new to the bullpen analysis and new to the daily reports, as of about a month ago now. I have named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the updated record of these four angles we are now regularly tracking:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 50-45 for -6.73 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -7.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 126-171 for -46.94 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.8%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 23-39 for -16.39 units since the All-Star break.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 276-150 for +38.22 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +9%.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 112-208 for -34.02 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.6%!
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 173-107 for +47.26 units, and an ROI of 16.9%! For the full ’24 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and since the All-Star baker, it is 46-37 for +12.22 units.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 83-40 for -7.08 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we are again!
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent.
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 109-33 for +25.67 units, an ROI of 18.1%.
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 70-29 for +5.06 units. Still, after a 0-2 week for -4.25 units, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. Although we gave -2.96 units back last week, the season record still stands at 328-336 for +44.03 units, ROI +6.6%!
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are back in the black, now 265-286 for +8.24 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 148-156 for -3.71 units (ROI -1.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-70, -0.53 units.
** NEW** – Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 133-190 for -26.75 units, an ROI of -8.3%. Although last year it was about -1% ROI, this year’s loss ROI makes it an angle I want to keep tracking, and we will do so going forward.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in ’25 and after a huge month-long run of +19.06 units, it is now 183-135 for +18.63 units (ROI 5.9%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 84-75 for -8.41 units. This angle has been a disappointment so far, but it did get back +4.28 units since the ASB.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of an in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings and the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams for the week.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 8/10)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 3.04
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 3.28
3. HOUSTON: 3.3
4. TEXAS: 3.34
5. BOSTON: 3.36
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 5.84
29. COLORADO: 5.5
28. ATHLETICS: 5.14
27. ARIZONA: 4.86
26. LA ANGELS: 4.81
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. HOUSTON: 1.16
2. SAN DIEGO: 1.17
3. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.19
4. TEXAS: 1.21
5. ATLANTA: 1.22
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.57
29. WASHINGTON: 1.55
28. ATHLETICS: 1.46
27. ARIZONA: 1.43
26. BALTIMORE: 1.43
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.36
2. TORONTO: 9.81
3. BALTIMORE: 9.65
4. TAMPA BAY: 9.53
5. NY YANKEES: 9.23
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. DETROIT: 7.62
29. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.68
28. COLORADO: 7.7
27. KANSAS CITY: 7.86
26. WASHINGTON: 7.93
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. PHILADELPHIA: 0.61
2. ATLANTA: 0.76
3. LA ANGELS: 0.89
4. CLEVELAND: 0.97
5. SEATTLE: 1.01
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 2.15
29. WASHINGTON: 1.84
28. MIAMI: 1.78
27. BALTIMORE: 1.66
26. LA DODGERS: 1.62
I use a manual process to analyze daily box scores and build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number reflects the statistics listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 8/4:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. PHILADELPHIA: +15 points
2. ATLANTA: +9
3. LA ANGELS: +8
4. MILWAUKEE: +7
5. SAN DIEGO: +6
5. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. MIAMI: -11 points
2. COLORADO: -8
3. LA DODGERS: -6
3. NY YANKEES: -6
3. BALTIMORE: -6
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 8/11)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN DIEGO: 39
2. MILWAUKEE: 33
3. HOUSTON: 21
4. CLEVELAND: 21
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 18
6. TAMPA BAY: 18
7. SEATTLE: 17
8. BOSTON: 17
9. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 17
10. ST LOUIS: 16
11. LA ANGELS: 15
12. PHILADELPHIA: 13
13. TEXAS: 13
14. PITTSBURGH: 13
15. LA DODGERS: 12
16. MIAMI: 10
17. NY METS: 9
18. ATLANTA: 8
19. SAN FRANCISCO: 5
20. BALTIMORE: 3
21. CINCINNATI: 2
22. DETROIT: 1
23. ATHLETICS: 1
24. KANSAS CITY: 0
25. NY YANKEES: -3
26. MINNESOTA: -3
27. TORONTO: -5
28. ARIZONA: -6
29. WASHINGTON: -32
30. COLORADO: -43
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are five teams on a 3+ game winning streak (SEA, PHI, ATL, MIL, ARI) and five teams on a 3+ game losing skid (TB, TEX, NYM, MIA, COL).
