MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for August 4:
I got a lot of great feedback after last week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update, and I believe much of it was due to the excited tone I took in delivering all of the great recent news regarding the strategies we have employed. To summarize, almost every part of the report has been winning big lately. This week’s update isn’t quite as great, but we are still winning, positive units on the easiest systems and some other much bigger highlights, which I will detail below. This will be a shorter update as I got a bunch of NFL Preseason work I want to get to in the next day or two, but I always want to keep my loyal readers apprised of the latest. Enjoy the updates and good luck on your MLB wagering this week!
As I just noted, there was a positive return on the easiest system this week, albeit just +0.89 units. However, in typical fashion, when that system wins, a lot of the other stuff tends to fare very well. Here are some of the highlights from the past seven days:
– Fading correlation system #2, strong bullpens BUT bad starting pitchers continued to thrive, as these teams lost another -6.72 units.
– IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BACKING teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record: Now +46.55 units for the season after another 16% ROI week
– BETTER BULLPEN UNDERDOG TEAMS: 94-83 since 7/2 for +35.43 units and a ROI of 20%!!!
– Fading WORSE bullpen teams on winning streaks had a perfect week, as those teams were 0-5 for -5.39 units
I have to reiterate that the BETTER BULLPEN UNDERDOG angle has perhaps always been my most successful (and popular) long-term strategy. It is validating its worth once again in ’25!
Before the unveiling of all this week’s system records updates, one other thing caught my eye this past week as I took a more macro look at my Team Bullpen Ratings, which I did when adjusting some teams’ ratings after the trade deadline acquisitions/losses. That is the strength of the NL Central Division right now in terms of bullpen performance. As a group, all five teams have at least a 5 rating, and collectively they average a 15.8 SM BP RTG for a league rank of 9.6. Why is this important? With a lot of games down the stretch, typically against fellow divisional rivals, it means the teams in the NL Central will be facing a bit tougher late-game schedule than everyone else. Will this negatively impact the playoff prospects of teams like Milwaukee, Chicago, or Cincinnati? We’ll see. By the way, here are the rankings of the divisions by bullpen strength currently:
1. NL Central – Average Rating: 15.8, Average Rank: 9.6
2. AL West 10.4, 13.8
3. AL East 8.2, 15.4
4. AL Central 4.2, 18.8
5. NL West 2.2, 16.6
6. NL East -2.2, 16.6
Remember, to fully implement these bullpen-focused strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 8/3:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 789-683 for +5.0 units and an ROI of +0.3% so far in the regular season. We got +13.96 units back since the return from the all-star break and are in the black! Even still, when you consider that almost 1,500 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, the advantage of this angle over simply blindly playing teams is immense. In fact, the average MLB bettor not using it and playing all MLB games this season would theoretically be down over -90 units.
Although I always remind readers that easiest isn’t always best, the positive returns on nearly 1,500 games validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, most or all are still faring very well. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles are new to the bullpen analysis and new to the daily reports, as of about a month ago now. I have named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the updated record of these four angles we are now regularly tracking:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 46-42 for -5.83 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -6.6% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 122-161 for -42.56 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 19-29 for -12.01 units since ASB.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 264-141 for +40.44 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +10%.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 107-199 for -31.3 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.2%!
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 167-112 for +46.55 units, and an ROI of 16.7%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and since the ASB, it is 40-32 for +11.51 units, sticking right around the 16% ROI mark.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 80-38 for -5.83 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we finally are!
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 103-33 for +19.67 units, an ROI of 14.5%.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 70-27 for +9.31 units. Still, we remain somewhat close to going into the usual negative territory.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the ‘23 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are rolling lately, and the season record stands at 313-314 for +46.99 units, ROI +7.5%. This comes after a breakout 55-45, +26.61-unit surge since the ASB!
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For ’25, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are back in the black after a huge +13.21-unit run since ASB, now 254-268 for +14.32 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 146-157 for 7.04 units (ROI -2.3%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-42, -1.31 units after a 0-5, -5.39 unit performance this past week.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and after a huge 3-1/2 week run of +16.33 units, it is now 173-130 for +15.9 units (ROI 5.2%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 83-74 for -8.67 units. This angle has been a disappointment so far, but it has gained back +4.02 units since the All-Star break.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of an in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings and the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams for the week.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 8/3)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 3.03
2. BOSTON: 3.28
3. HOUSTON: 3.35
4. TEXAS: 3.35
5. SAN FRANCISCO: 3.36
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 5.89
29. ATHLETICS: 5.22
28. COLORADO: 5.2
27. LA ANGELS: 4.97
26. ARIZONA: 4.86
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN DIEGO: 1.17
2. HOUSTON: 1.17
3. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.2
4. TEXAS: 1.22
5. BOSTON: 1.24
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. WASHINGTON: 1.55
29. COLORADO: 1.53
28. ATHLETICS: 1.48
27. LA ANGELS: 1.45
26. ARIZONA: 1.43
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.51
2. TORONTO: 9.81
3. BALTIMORE: 9.56
4. TAMPA BAY: 9.41
5. NY YANKEES: 9.17
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.56
29. DETROIT: 7.73
28. WASHINGTON: 7.74
27. COLORADO: 7.76
26. KANSAS CITY: 7.88
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. CLEVELAND: 0.83
2. SEATTLE: 0.84
3. SAN DIEGO: 0.91
4. LA DODGERS: 0.95
5. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 0.98
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. WASHINGTON: 2.19
29. TORONTO: 1.78
28. COLORADO: 1.73
27. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.71
26. PHILADELPHIA: 1.71
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 7/28:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. NY YANKEES: +9 points
2. SEATTLE: +8
2. LA DODGERS: +8
4. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: +6
5. TAMPA BAY: +5
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. TORONTO: -12 points
2. CINCINNATI: -10
2. WASHINGTON: -10
4. PHILADELPHIA: -8
4. COLORADO: -8
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 8/4)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN DIEGO: 33
2. MILWAUKEE: 26
3. BOSTON: 22
4. MIAMI: 21
5. HOUSTON: 19
6. LA DODGERS: 18
7. CHICAGO CUBS: 18
8. ST LOUIS: 18
9. CLEVELAND: 16
10. SEATTLE: 15
11. TEXAS: 15
12. TAMPA BAY: 13
13. PITTSBURGH: 12
14. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 11
15. BALTIMORE: 9
16. NY METS: 8
17. LA ANGELS: 7
18. CINCINNATI: 5
19. NY YANKEES: 3
20. SAN FRANCISCO: 0
21. ATLANTA: -1
22. KANSAS CITY: -1
23. PHILADELPHIA: -2
24. DETROIT: -2
25. MINNESOTA: -3
26. ATHLETICS: -4
27. ARIZONA: -5
28. TORONTO: -6
29. COLORADO: -35
30. WASHINGTON: -36
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are three teams on a 3+ game winning streak (BOS, MIA, MIL) and three teams on a 3+ game losing skid (NYY, HOU, WAS).
