MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for July 14:
The MLB All-Star Break probably could have picked a better time to arrive, at least that’s what followers of my Bullpen Systems are thinking, since a huge week has us riding a ton of momentum. The Easiest System won, the underdog systems won big, and the system for following better bullpen teams on winning streaks enjoyed its best week of the entire season. Things have definitely gone well this season. Hopefully, you’re reaping the benefits and are anxious for the second half to start back up, just like I am. I’ll dig into that, plus share the current key bullpen performance marks for teams at home and on the road, as requested by a reader this past week as I put together another exciting MLB Bullpen Systems update.
For those wondering, I probably won’t have another such update for two weeks, as this will be a low-volume week for games. That said, don’t fret, our daily MLB Analytics Reports will continue the daily update process in the meantime. However, I will be putting another MLB piece together on Wednesday, simulating the rest of the season to project end-of-season records. I did the same last year, and the betting results were AMAZING. I will share all of that with you in that piece.
Top MLB Resources:
As I mentioned in the intro, this past week was a big one for most or all of the MLB Bullpen Systems, most notably the better bullpen underdog angles. The primary one produced +5.8 units of profit, and the tighter line angle version gained +7.7 units. That latter mark would have been the high point for the week if not for the system that indicates to back better bullpen teams that are riding winning streaks. With the red-hot Brewers and Red Sox representing a big portion of these games, there were 27 opportunities to back this long-running profit angle, and the net result was 18-9 for +7.9 units. Oh, and by the way, the Easiest angle produced +4.35 units of profit, and typically when that happens, almost everything else does well. That pretty much sums up this update.
A VSiN subscriber reached out to me last week interested in finding out which bullpens were performing best at home or on the road, and whether or not I look at that aspect closely when handicapping my own baseball games. The truth is I don’t, but it is an interesting dataset to look at. I just feel that if you get too “nit-picky” with things like that, they are bound to turn on you and produce irregular results. That said, I did go ahead and pull the key home and road bullpen performance stats for all 30 teams. Those are below, and I’ve summarized where the team tends to perform better. Perhaps it can help you.
ARIZONA
Home 5.29 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.14 Ks/9
Road 4.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 9.13 Ks/9
Better where? Slightly better ROAD
ATHLETICS
Home 5.2 ERA, 1.5 WHIP, 9.93 Ks/9
Road 5.93 ERA, 1.6 WHIP, 8.68 Ks/9
Better where? Slightly better HOME
ATLANTA
Home 3.67 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.69 Ks/9
Road 3.43 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.72 Ks/9
Better where? SIMILAR
BALTIMORE
Home 4.84 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.49 Ks/9
Road 4.4 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 9.85 Ks/9
Better where? Slightly better ROAD
BOSTON
Home 3.42 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 7.38 Ks/9
Road 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.97 Ks/9
Better where? Slightly better ROAD
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Home 4.15 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 7.69 Ks/9
Road 3.72 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 8.35 Ks/9
Better where? SIMILAR
CHICAGO CUBS
Home 3.55 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.12 Ks/9
Road 3.47 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.95 Ks/9
Better where? Slightly better HOME
CINCINNATI
Home 3.82 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.19 Ks/9
Road 4.17 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.17 Ks/9
Better where? Better HOME
CLEVELAND
Home 4.43 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 9.41 Ks/9
Road 3.11 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.63 Ks/9
Better where? Much better ROAD
COLORADO
Home 5.08 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 8.35 Ks/9
Road 4.64 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 6.93 Ks/9
Better where? Better ROAD
DETROIT
Home 3.99 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.53 Ks/9
Road 4.13 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 7.56 Ks/9
Better where? Slightly better ROAD
HOUSTON
Home 3.29 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 10.88 Ks/9
Road 3.3 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.04 Ks/9
Better where? SIMILAR
KANSAS CITY
Home 3.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.66 Ks/9
Road 3.31 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.19 Ks/9
Better where? SIMILAR
LA ANGELS
Home 5.21 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 8.78 Ks/9
Road 4.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 8.72 Ks/9
Better where? SIMILAR
LA DODGERS
Home 4.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.26 Ks/9
Road 3.87 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 9.2 Ks/9
Better where? Better ROAD
MIAMI
Home 3.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.74 Ks/9
Road 4.19 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.2 Ks/9
Better where? SIMILAR
MILWAUKEE
Home 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 9.61 Ks/9
Road 4.75 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, 7.85 Ks/9
Better where? Much better HOME
MINNESOTA
Home 4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.67 Ks/9
Road 3.44 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9.69 Ks/9
Better where? Much better ROAD
NY METS
Home 3.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.83 Ks/9
Road 4.28 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.01 Ks/9
Better where? Much better HOME
NY YANKEES
Home 3.78 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.82 Ks/9
Road 4.51 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 9.07 Ks/9
Better where? Better HOME
PHILADELPHIA
Home 4.48 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.11 Ks/9
Road 4.27 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 8.96 Ks/9
Better where? SIMILAR
PITTSBURGH
Home 3.46 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7.97 Ks/9
Road 4.02 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.71 Ks/9
Better where? Slightly better HOME
SAN DIEGO
Home 2.39 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.91 Ks/9
Road 4.22 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.38 Ks/9
Better where? Much better HOME
SAN FRANCISCO
Home 3.2 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.59 Ks/9
Road 3.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.6 Ks/9
Better where? SIMILAR
SEATTLE
Home 3.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.39 Ks/9
Road 4.01 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.18 Ks/9
Better where? Slightly better HOME
ST LOUIS
Home 3.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 7.42 Ks/9
Road 4.74 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 8.61 Ks/9
Better where? Much better HOME
TAMPA BAY
Home 3.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.22 Ks/9
Road 4.48 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, 9.16 Ks/9
Better where? Much better HOME
TEXAS
Home 3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.36 Ks/9
Road 3.79 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.63 Ks/9
Better where? Better HOME
TORONTO
Home 3.2 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 9.55 Ks/9
Road 4.02 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.25 Ks/9
Better where? Better HOME
WASHINGTON
Home 6.38 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 7.92 Ks/9
Road 5.37 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 7.91 Ks/9
Better where? Better ROAD
Remember, to full implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 7/13:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 675-589 for -8.96 units and a ROI of 0.7% so far in the regular season. We got +4.35 units back last week, so we will go into the unofficial second half of the season with some momentum. Still, when you consider that almost 1,300 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, these are very advantageous numbers for such an easy system encompassing so many games. The average MLB bettor not using it and playing all MLB games this season would theoretically be down over -76 units.
I always like to remind readers that easiest isn’t always best. In fact, the slightly negative returns validate why I personally prefer using greater discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, most or all are still faring very well. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles are new to the bullpen analysis and new to the daily reports, as of about a month ago now. I have named them correlation systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the updated records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 39-37 for -7.78 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -10.2% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games. However, this angle is 8-2 over the last two weeks!
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 103-132 for -30.55 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.0%. Fade these qualifiers almost anytime they come up.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 234-120 for +41.62 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +11.8%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 90-189 for -47.68 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -17.1%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade, and it continued losing big last week while netting -4.97 units.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
BACK teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 127-80 for +35.04 units, and an ROI of 16.9%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we are including it on the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 72-30 for +4.25 units. This remains a winning first-half angle, although we are still very close to going red.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 101-30 for +24.6 units, an ROI of 18.8%.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 68-25 for +11.22 units. After a 4-0 week, we are further away from going into the usual negative territory. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 258-269 for +20.38 units, ROI +3.9%. This comes after a strong +5.8 unit week heading into the break.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are back in the black after a huge +7.7 unit week, now 214-235 for +1.11 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 129-133 for -1.0 units (ROI -0.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 65-62, +0.62 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and after a huge week of 18-9 for +7.9 units, it is now 143-107 for +7.47 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 71-68 for -12.7 units. This angle has been a major disappointment so far and is very close to being removed from the daily reports.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings and the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams for the week.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 7/13)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 3.14
2. SAN DIEGO: 3.2
3. HOUSTON: 3.3
4. TEXAS: 3.37
5. BOSTON: 3.44
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 5.88
29. ATHLETICS: 5.5
28. LA ANGELS: 5.02
27. ARIZONA: 4.94
26. COLORADO: 4.85
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. HOUSTON: 1.14
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.16
3. ATLANTA: 1.19
4. SAN DIEGO: 1.2
5. TORONTO: 1.21
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. ATHLETICS: 1.54
29. WASHINGTON: 1.52
28. LA ANGELS: 1.49
27. COLORADO: 1.49
26. ARIZONA: 1.43
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.52
2. TORONTO: 9.86
3. BALTIMORE: 9.66
4. NY YANKEES: 9.46
5. ATHLETICS: 9.37
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.41
29. DETROIT: 7.54
28. COLORADO: 7.69
27. PITTSBURGH: 7.84
26. KANSAS CITY: 7.89
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. CLEVELAND: 0.87
2. ATLANTA: 0.94
3. NY YANKEES: 0.97
4. ATHLETICS: 0.99
5. MILWAUKEE: 1
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. DETROIT: 2.06
29. COLORADO: 1.96
28. ARIZONA: 1.72
27. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.64
26. BALTIMORE: 1.64
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 7/7:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. ATHLETICS: +14 points
2. CLEVELAND: +7
3. BOSTON: +6
4. CINCINNATI: +5
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. SEATTLE: -12 points
2. COLORADO: -11
3. DETROIT: -10
4. HOUSTON: -9
5. BALTIMORE: -8
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 7/14)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. CHICAGO CUBS: 30
2. HOUSTON: 27
3. MILWAUKEE: 26
4. SAN DIEGO: 25
5. MIAMI: 21
6. ATLANTA: 19
7. CLEVELAND: 19
8. BOSTON: 16
9. TEXAS: 14
10. MINNESOTA: 14
11. BALTIMORE: 11
12. PITTSBURGH: 11
13. KANSAS CITY: 9
14. TORONTO: 8
15. SAN FRANCISCO: 8
16. LA DODGERS: 7
17. ST LOUIS: 6
18. CINCINNATI: 6
19. LA ANGELS: 5
20. PHILADELPHIA: 3
21. SEATTLE: 3
22. TAMPA BAY: 2
23. DETROIT: 1
24. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1
25. NY METS: 0
26. NY YANKEES: -3
27. ARIZONA: -8
28. ATHLETICS: -15
29. COLORADO: -28
30. WASHINGTON: -34
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are three teams on a 3+ game winning streak (BOS, SEA, MIL) and three teams on a 3+ game losing skid (TB, DET, WAS).
