MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for July 28

MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for July 28:

I always feel that the period immediately preceding and following the MLB All-Star break is the most underrated part of the season for MLB teams. It is a period in which teams can make or break their postseason chances when you consider the momentum they build or lose. How they play during this period can also have a significant impact on the strategy the team employs at the trade deadline, which is coming up on Thursday. 

Well, for followers of my MLB BULLPEN SYSTEMS, the last 2-1.2 weeks or so have also been quite impactful, as almost EVERYTHING has been winning HUGELY! Seeing my own bankroll building in recent weeks, I can tell you that I may have never been more excited to run the actual system numbers this morning and produce this report! If you haven’t been following these systems this season or in any of the recent seasons, I implore you to consider the strategy. If you’re simply new to VSiN and curious, welcome! 

I knew things had been going well for my Bullpen Systems simply by looking at the EASIEST system results lately. Of course, when those are going good, I know everything else will be coming up smelling like roses too. I have the full update below, but here are some of the highlights of the systems that are currently soaring:

– EASIEST SYSTEM: +17.42 units netted since 7/6

– Fading teams with GOOD BULLPEN/BAD STARTING PITCHER correlation angle, they went: -5.29 units, -16.5% ROI since ASB

– ULTIMATE SCENARIO correlation system, backing teams with elite BULLPEN & STARTING PITCHER SM Ratings: +12.46 units gained since ASB, season ROI now 14.2%

– IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BACKING teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record: Now +37.76 units for the season after another 16% ROI week-and-a-half

– Backing big favorites with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent: Now +23.68 units in 2025, ROI 17.8%!

AND LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST:

– BETTER BULLPEN UNDERDOG TEAMS: 76-65 since 7/2 for +31.62 units and a ROI of 22.4%!!!

For those of you new to this article series or the systems, the BETTER BULLPEN UNDERDOG angle is my longest-running and perhaps most successful long-term strategy. It is validating its worth once again in 2025! 

Another focus for this week is analyzing extended runs of success and struggles in bullpen performance. Surely you have noticed particular teams rising or sliding in the standings in recent weeks, and in many cases, it has a lot to do with bullpen performance. With that in mind, I went back and reviewed the SM Bullpen Ratings for teams six weeks ago and compared them to the current ratings. There are indeed some interesting findings. Take a look at these biggest gainers and losers since that point:

Biggest bullpen movers upward over the last six weeks:
1. ATHLETICS – then -31, now -8, GAIN: +23
2. MIAMI – then 3, now 21, GAIN: +18
3. LA ANGELS – then -10, now 6, GAIN: +16
4. SAN DIEGO – then 19, now 31, GAIN: +12
5. MILWAUKEE – then 17, now 28, GAIN: +11
5. SEATTLE – then -4, now 7, GAIN: +11
7. BOSTON – then 12, now 22, GAIN: +10
7. ST LOUIS – then 10, now 20, GAIN: +10
7. PITTSBURGH – then 5, now 15, GAIN: +10 

Looking at this list of 10 teams, several of them aren’t in any kind of shape to threaten for a playoff spot. However, the likes of the Athletics, Marlins, Angels, and Pirates have been big-time ROI producers for bettors over the last month-plus. Of course, Milwaukee and Boston have greatly improved their playoff positions with their recent play.

Biggest bullpen movers downward over the last six weeks:
1. NY YANKEES – then 18, now -6, LOSS: -24
2. MINNESOTA – then 19, now 1, LOSS: -18
3. HOUSTON – then 34, now 17, LOSS: -17
4. SAN FRANCISCO – then 22, now 6, LOSS: -16
5. CHICAGO CUBS – then 35, now 20, LOSS: -15
5. BALTIMORE – then 21, now 6, LOSS: -15
5. TAMPA BAY – then 23, now 8, LOSS: -15
8. DETROIT – then 8, now -2, LOSS: -10 

If you consider the teams on this list, the Yankees, Cubs, and Detroit have all either lost their once formidable divisional leads or had them cut into dramatically. The others have cost themselves a shot at staying in the thick of their wild-card races with recent skids.

The bottom line is this…extended runs of strong or poor bullpen performance can have a massive impact on a team’s postseason prospects. 

Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it. 

Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 7/27: 

The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better-rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage of 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 745-646 for +4.11 units and a ROI of +0.3% so far in the regular season. We got +13.07 units back since the return from the all-star break and are back into the black! Even still, when you consider that almost 1,400 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, the advantage of this angle over simply blindly playing teams is immense. In fact, the average MLB bettor not using it and playing all MLB games this season would theoretically be down over -85 units. 

Although I always remind readers that easiest isn’t always best, the positive returns on nearly 1,400 games validate why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, most or all are still faring very well. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day. 

These next angles are new to the bullpen analysis and new to the daily reports, as of about a month ago. I have named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the updated records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking: 

1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 41-39 for -7.78 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -9.7% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games. This angle has been rare lately and is only 2-2 since the All-Star break.

2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 117-150 for -35.84 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.4%. Fade these qualifiers almost anytime they come up. This angle is 14-18 for -5.29 units since the All-Star break.

3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 254-126 for +54.08 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +14.2%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario, and it has continued to produce amazing results, gaining +12.46 units since the All-Star break!

4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 100-194 for -37.78 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.8%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade but it has won since the All-Star break, netting +9.9 units.

** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 137-87 for +37.76 units, and a ROI of 16.9%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This has continually proven to be a good foundational angle to follow, as the prices are typically not high, and since the All-Star break, it is 10-7 for +2.72 units. 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have finally gone negative after an uncustomary good start, 76-34 for -0.53 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red and we finally are! 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 102-31 for +23.68 units, an ROI of 17.8%. 

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 68-27 for +7.31 units. However, after a -3.91-unit week-and-a-half, we are closer again to going into the usual negative territory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season. 

Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening BIG-TIME, as we are well in the black with a season record of 295-296 for +43.18 units, ROI +7.3%. This comes after a breakout 37-27, +22.8-unit week-and-a-half since the ASB! 

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are back in the black after a huge +9.29-unit week-and-a-half, now 239-255 for +10.4 units. 

Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 141-150 for -5.94 units (ROI -2.0%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-37, +4.08 units. 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and after a huge 2-1/2 week run of 35-21 for +16.15 units, it is now 160-119 for +15.72 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start. 

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 79-72 for -8.79 units. This angle has been a disappointment so far, but it did get back 3.91 units since the ASB. 

Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of an in-depth handicapping library available to readers. 

Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings and the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams for the week. 

Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 7/27)

Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 3.04
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 3.23
3. TEXAS: 3.25
4. BOSTON: 3.3
5. HOUSTON: 3.42 

Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. WASHINGTON: 5.63
29. ATHLETICS: 5.38
28. COLORADO: 5.05
27. LA ANGELS: 5
26. ARIZONA: 4.87 

Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.17
2. HOUSTON: 1.17
3. SAN DIEGO: 1.19
4. TORONTO: 1.2
5. TEXAS: 1.21 

Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. WASHINGTON: 1.5
29. ATHLETICS: 1.5
28. COLORADO: 1.5
27. LA ANGELS: 1.45
26. ARIZONA: 1.43 

Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.34
2. TORONTO: 9.88
3. BALTIMORE: 9.64
4. TAMPA BAY: 9.35
5. ATHLETICS: 9.29 

Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.48
29. DETROIT: 7.68
28. COLORADO: 7.69
27. WASHINGTON: 7.73
26. KANSAS CITY: 7.94 

Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. PITTSBURGH: 0.8
2. CLEVELAND: 0.87
3. BOSTON: 0.9
4. SAN DIEGO: 0.93
5. NY METS: 1.02 

Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. HOUSTON: 1.67
29. DETROIT: 1.6
28. COLORADO: 1.57
27. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.57
26. LA DODGERS: 1.56 

I use a manual process to analyze daily box scores and build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.

Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 7/21:

Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. NY METS: +12 points
2. PITTSBURGH: +9
3. ST LOUIS: +7
3. CINCINNATI: +7
3. SEATTLE: +7 

Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. CHICAGO CUBS: -10 points
1. MINNESOTA: -10
3. HOUSTON: -7
4. DETROIT: -6
4. ATLANTA: -6 

Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 7/28)

Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN DIEGO: 31
2. MILWAUKEE: 28
3. BOSTON: 22
4. TEXAS: 21
5. MIAMI: 21
6. CHICAGO CUBS: 20
7. ST LOUIS: 20
8. CLEVELAND: 19
9. HOUSTON: 17
10. CINCINNATI: 15
11. PITTSBURGH: 15
12. NY METS: 12
13. LA DODGERS: 10
14. TAMPA BAY: 8
15. SEATTLE: 7
16. PHILADELPHIA: 6
17. TORONTO: 6
18. SAN FRANCISCO: 6
19. BALTIMORE: 6
20. LA ANGELS: 6
21. ATLANTA: 5
22. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 5
23. KANSAS CITY: 2
24. MINNESOTA: 1
25. DETROIT: -2
26. NY YANKEES: -6
27. ARIZONA: -6
28. ATHLETICS: -8
29. WASHINGTON: -26
30. COLORADO: -27 

These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating. 

As we head into this week’s games, there are four teams on a 3+ game winning streak (TEX, ATH, NYM, CIN) and four teams on a 3+ game losing skid (TB, HOU, ATL, SF).