MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for June 2:
Over the last few seasons in delivering my weekly MLB Bullpen Systems updates, there have been the usual fill of up and down weeks, with a few more ups giving reason for backing. That is typical for system betting in any sport, as people who believe in this methodology would attest to the long run profits outweighing some off weeks sprinkled in. It seems that with the bullpen angles this year, there have been far more positives, and I am thankful for that and hopeful that, like me, you are reaping the benefits.
After 2+ solid months through May, the numbers were pretty good. Then came Sunday, when we started the month of June off with a bang! I’ll get into the details of that, the continuing surges by the better bullpen dominant and underdogs, the recent meteoric rise of the Cubs’ bullpen rating, plus some better/worse bullpen stats for all 30 teams as I put together this week’s update.
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Sunday was June 1st on the calendar. Hopefully, you caught the Analytics Report in the morning before the early start times, as it was a huge day for teams with better Steve Makinen bullpen ratings and an awesome start to the month. Not all of the teams qualified for the easiest system due to some won-lost record margins or starting pitching differences, but in the 15 games, the team with the better bullpen ratings was 13-2 for +12.97 units! This included big underdog wins by the Yankees, Tigers, and Brewers. In fact, the win by Milwaukee wrapped up a series sweep. Few could have seen that coming, that is, unless you believed in the merits of my better bullpen systems. Although I could never expect to continue this level of excellence, it does feel good to have some nice momentum going.
The wins by those three big underdogs on Sunday continued what has been a tremendous five-week winning streak for my Better Bullpen Underdog teams. This has always been one of the favorite angles for VSiN readers, and with this current streak, we have reached a season high +3.39 units of profit, and I believe we are just getting started with that one. The other angle that I have not focused on yet in my updates so far this season is the one focusing on teams with better bullpens and far better records doing well. The key number is a 19% winning percentage differential between the teams. I am typically not a fan of laying real big numbers on daily baseball games, but if you ask me, they are getting more and more warranted each season as the separation between the haves and have nots widens. In any case, for 2025, these teams with better bullpens and win percentages >=19% are off to a very strong start, 71-22 for +14.33 units, a ROI of 15.4%.
I mentioned the Cubs’ meteoric rise in terms of bullpen ratings lately. It was certainly unexpected, and it has them looking like one of the most complete teams in the league. At the start of the season, the relief corps was truly a weak spot. However, they have gotten hot. While they still aren’t dominating opposing hitters in terms of striking them out, they are simply keeping them off the scoreboard. The stats since May 12th are simply amazing: 66-2/3 innings of work, WHIP of 0.96, ERA of 1.08.
Finally, after going through the different series last Friday in a separate article, I came up with the idea of looking at each team from a better/worse bullpen rating perspective. These are the current records of each team in those situations this season. Maybe this will help you incorporate some new strategies for using the bullpen ratings effectively:
Team – Better Bullpen Record (Rank) – Worse Bullpen Record (Rank)
ARIZONA: 17-17, -9.66u ROI -28.4% (24) / 11-14, -2.09u ROI -8.4% (17)
ATHLETICS: 9-12, -6.76u ROI -32.2% (25) / 13-25, -8.19u ROI -21.6% (23)
ATLANTA: 26-27, -11.57u ROI -21.8% (21) / 1-4, -3.22u ROI -64.4% (29)
BALTIMORE: 13-16, -7.57u ROI -26.1% (22) / 9-19, -11.1u ROI -39.6% (27)
BOSTON: 5-8, -6.91u ROI -53.2% (29) / 24-24, -3.5u ROI -7.3% (16)
CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1-2, -0.81u ROI -27.0% (23) / 16-38, -10.76u ROI -19.9% (22)
CHICAGO CUBS: 15-7, +5.03u ROI +22.9% (5) / 21-14, +7.11u ROI +20.3% (4)
CINCINNATI: 11-11, -4.45u ROI -20.2% (20) / 18-20, +0.19u ROI +0.5% (11)
CLEVELAND: 26-24, +3.84u ROI +7.7% (13) / 5-2, +3.5u ROI +50.0% (1)
COLORADO: 1-2, -1.18u ROI -39.3% (27) / 8-48, -32.07u ROI -57.3% (28)
DETROIT: 25-11, +11.35u ROI +31.5% (2) / 14-10, +4.67u ROI +19.5% (5)
HOUSTON: 26-21, +2.01u ROI +4.3% (17) / 6-6, -1.01u ROI -8.4% (18)
KANSAS CITY: 10-6, +2.42u ROI +15.1% (9) / 20-23, +0.23u ROI +0.5% (10)
LA ANGELS: 2-2, -1.31u ROI -32.8% (26) / 24-30, +2.93u ROI +5.4% (9)
LA DODGERS: 30-19, -2.45u ROI -5.0% (19) / 6-4, +1.01u ROI +10.1% (7)
MIAMI: 4-3, +2.01u ROI +28.7% (3) / 17-30, -5.31u ROI -11.3% (20)
MILWAUKEE: 19-12, +6.66u ROI +21.5% (6) / 12-14, -0.49u ROI -1.9% (12)
MINNESOTA: 24-20, +1.91u ROI +4.3% (16) / 6-7, -1.2u ROI -9.2% (19)
NY METS: 36-20, +8.19u ROI +14.6% (10) / 1-2, -0.75u ROI -25.0% (24)
NY YANKEES: 32-19, +6.15u ROI +12.1% (11) / 4-3, -0.24u ROI -3.4% (14)
PHILADELPHIA: 19-7, +7.31u ROI +28.1% (4) / 17-15, -1.09u ROI -3.4% (13)
PITTSBURGH: 5-3, +1.6u ROI +20.0% (8) / 17-33, -9.86u ROI -19.7% (21)
SAN DIEGO: 25-20, -2.22u ROI -4.9% (18) / 8-4, +5.27u ROI +43.9% (2)
SAN FRANCISCO: 33-23, +6.26u ROI +11.2% (12) / 0-2, -2.12u ROI -106.0% (30)
SEATTLE: 17-10, +1.9u ROI +7.0% (14) / 15-16, -1.89u ROI -6.1% (15)
ST LOUIS: 14-9, +4.79u ROI +20.8% (7) / 18-17, +2.64u ROI +7.5% (8)
TAMPA BAY: 9-17, -13.7u ROI -52.7% (28) / 20-11, +12.57u ROI +40.5% (3)
TEXAS: 20-16, +2.47u ROI +6.9% (15) / 9-15, -7.69u ROI -32.0% (26)
TORONTO: 22-12, +12.29u ROI +36.1% (1) / 8-15, -7.32u ROI -31.8% (25)
WASHINGTON: No games with better BP Rtg / 28-31, +6.25u ROI +10.6% (6)
Before digging into the updated system numbers, recall that I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. They just aren’t accounted for as much as starting pitching by oddsmakers, thus giving bettors value in typically at least 1/3 of games or more.
What’s the easiest way to use these bullpen ratings? Well, there can be more profitable ways (by ROI) requiring fewer plays, but the easiest method I have now is detailed in the very first system below. I have called it fittingly THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. By simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units in the 2023 season. It lost about twice as much last season, so I’ve been hoping for a bounce-back year in 2025. We could be on our way to getting that.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to the MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 6/1:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 417-343 for +9.36 units and an ROI of 1.2% so far in the regular season. We’re off a solid week returning over +7 units of profit. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -46 units.
It’s been a pretty good first 2+ months of the season overall for the MLB Bullpen Systems, and the easiest angle producing over 9 units of profit is testament to that. However, I personally prefer using greater discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
** NEW 2025 IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 80-46 for +23.11 units, and an ROI of 18.3%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we are including it on the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 48-18 for +8.11 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is losing ground quickly and is just a few heavily priced favorite losses from going negative.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 71-22 for +14.33 units, an ROI of 15.4%.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 51-18 for +9.09 units. However, this system also remains just a few games away from going negative and has trended back to normalcy over the last few weeks.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are in the black once again and riding a five-week winning streak. For the season the record is now 143-163 for +3.39 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 123-141 for -7.27 units, and we just lost our four-week winning streak.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 74-81 for -5.07 units (ROI -3.3%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (41-35, +7.99 units) are somewhat surprising.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 88-64 for +2.34 units, having recovered from a slow start.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to another strong start, 51-36 for +6.91 units, an ROI of 7.9%. This comes off +2.82 units last week.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 6/1)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.42
2. NY METS: 2.84
3. DETROIT: 3.24
4. TAMPA BAY: 3.24
5. MINNESOTA: 3.25
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 6.17
29. LA ANGELS: 6.04
28. WASHINGTON: 5.94
27. BALTIMORE: 5.33
26. ARIZONA: 5.29
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.05
2. TORONTO: 1.11
3. MINNESOTA: 1.13
4. NY METS: 1.17
5. SAN DIEGO: 1.17
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. ATHLETICS: 1.67
29. LA ANGELS: 1.65
28. WASHINGTON: 1.58
27. BALTIMORE: 1.53
26. MIAMI: 1.45
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.24
2. TORONTO: 10.13
3. CLEVELAND: 9.8
4. NY YANKEES: 9.8
5. MINNESOTA: 9.58
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. COLORADO: 7.53
29. ST LOUIS: 7.56
28. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.62
27. DETROIT: 7.82
26. KANSAS CITY: 7.82
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. CHICAGO CUBS: 0.72
2. MIAMI: 0.93
3. SAN DIEGO: 0.94
4. TEXAS: 0.99
5. TORONTO: 0.99
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. SEATTLE: 1.92
29. PHILADELPHIA: 1.82
28. CINCINNATI: 1.8
27. ATHLETICS: 1.79
26. HOUSTON: 1.79
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday, 5/26:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. CHICAGO CUBS: +10 points
2. COLORADO: +8
2. MIAMI: +8
2. LA ANGELS: +8
2. MILWAUKEE: +8
2. SAN FRANCISCO: +8
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. ATHLETICS: -11 points
2. MINNESOTA: -9
3. NY YANKEES: -8
4. PHILADELPHIA: -6
4. SEATTLE: -6
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/2)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 35
2. CHICAGO CUBS: 26
3. HOUSTON: 24
4. NY METS: 22
5. ATLANTA: 22
6. MINNESOTA: 22
7. TORONTO: 20
8. NY YANKEES: 19
9. DETROIT: 18
10. SAN DIEGO: 17
11. TEXAS: 17
12. CLEVELAND: 16
13. TAMPA BAY: 16
14. KANSAS CITY: 15
15. LA DODGERS: 10
16. BOSTON: 9
17. MILWAUKEE: 7
18. ST LOUIS: 6
19. MIAMI: 3
20. CINCINNATI: 2
21. BALTIMORE: 1
22. SEATTLE: -2
23. PHILADELPHIA: -4
24. ARIZONA: -5
25. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -7
26. PITTSBURGH: -9
27. COLORADO: -11
28. LA ANGELS: -15
29. WASHINGTON: -19
30. ATHLETICS: -34
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, four teams (TOR, BAL, NYM, MIL) are on three-plus-game winning streaks, and four teams (CHW, ATH, PHI, COL) are on three-plus-game losing skids.
