MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for June 30:
Having crossed the mid-season point of the 2025 MLB campaign this past week, I am going to use this MLB Bullpen Systems update article to get you up to speed with what we have seen in the first half of the season, and of course, update you on all of the system numbers after what was another very solid week. For those of you taking the time to look past the “easiest” method, I assume you are doing well, as the dig-deeper angles have thrived this season, especially the Starting pitcher/bullpen CORRELATION systems I discovered and shared about a month ago.
Just looking at the overall team bullpen rankings (near the bottom of the article), the strength of bullpens and how it leads to overall success is quite obvious. The top two teams, Chicago Cubs and Houston, who just played each other by the way, have netted a combined +16.81 units for their backers this season. At the same time, six of the bottom seven teams, all but Philadelphia, have lost money for bettors getting behind them, a combined -76.51 units.
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I know it might sound easy to say at this point, as we’re simply looking at some of the better teams in theleague on the one end and some of the worst on the other, but for those of you that have followed my bullpen analysis all season long, you would know that I had Houston highly rated at the outset of the season and most of the bottom seven teams very lowly rated. In other words, I have suggested fading those worst bullpen teams for just about all of 2025. With that in mind, as we just passed the midway point of the regular season, let’s take a look at where I had each team’s bullpen rating back in March as compared to where they are now:
Team: Current Rating (Rank) / March Rating (Rank) – Rating +/-
ARIZONA: -17 (#27) / 8 (#13) – Rating change: -25
ATHLETICS: -33 (#30) / 4 (#19) – Rating change: -37
ATLANTA: 22 (#3) / 16 (#5) – Rating change: +6
BALTIMORE: 17 (#7) / 14 (#8) – Rating change: +3
BOSTON: 12 (#12) / 0 (#22) – Rating change: +12
CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 0 (#24) / -9 (#28) – Rating change: +9
CHICAGO CUBS: 35 (#1) / -6 (#25) – Rating change: +41
CINCINNATI: 8 (#21) / -7 (#27) – Rating change: +15
CLEVELAND: 5 (#22) / 22 (#2) – Rating change: -17
COLORADO: -18 (#28) / -15 (#30) – Rating change: -3
DETROIT: 11 (#17) / 7 (#14) – Rating change: +4
HOUSTON: 30 (#2) / 8 (#12) – Rating change: +22
KANSAS CITY: 12 (#14) / -4 (#24) – Rating change: +16
LA ANGELS: 0 (#23) / 1 (#21) – Rating change: -1
LA DODGERS: 9 (#19) / 25 (#1) – Rating change: -16
MIAMI: 12 (#16) / -2 (#23) – Rating change: +14
MILWAUKEE: 15 (#9) / 3 (#20) – Rating change: +12
MINNESOTA: 12 (#13) / 21 (#3) – Rating change: -9
NY METS: -3 (#25) / 14 (#7) – Rating change: -17
NY YANKEES: 19 (#5) / 17 (#4) – Rating change: +2
PHILADELPHIA: -4 (#26) / 13 (#10) – Rating change: -17
PITTSBURGH: 12 (#15) / -6 (#26) – Rating change: +18
SAN DIEGO: 17 (#6) / 15 (#6) – Rating change: +2
SAN FRANCISCO: 16 (#8) / 14 (#9) – Rating change: +2
SEATTLE: 10 (#18) / 13 (#11) – Rating change: -3
ST LOUIS: 15 (#10) / 6 (#16) – Rating change: +9
TAMPA BAY: 12 (#11) / 5 (#17) – Rating change: +7
TEXAS: 21 (#4) / 4 (#18) – Rating change: +17
TORONTO: 9 (#20) / 6 (#15) – Rating change: +3
WASHINGTON: -25 (#29) / -15 (#29) – Rating change: -10
To quickly summarize last week’s bullpen systems results, if you took the easy road out (easiest system), you probably lost money. If you dug deeper and utilized the more refined systems, particularly the new correlation systems, surely you expanded your bankroll nicely. All of the updated numbers are below. I hope you enjoy the piece, and I wish you the best of luck for your 4th of July holiday wagering!
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 6/29:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 591-509 for -4.53 units and an ROI of -0.4% so far in the regular season. While losing -4.53 units has put us in the red for the first time this season, considering that 1,100 games have qualified on such a simple, idealistic angle, it is still respectable numbers for such a simplistic system encompassing so many games. The average MLB bettor not using it and playing it would theoretically be down almost -67 units.
It’s been a pretty good first three months of the season overall for the MLB Bullpen Systems, as we are nearly profitable on 1,100 games wagered. However, I personally prefer using greater discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
These next angles are new to the bullpen analysis and new to the daily reports. I have named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the updated record of these four angles we are now regularly tracking:
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 31-35 for -13.05 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -19.8% and it proves my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in games. This angle was 1-5 for -3.85 units last week alone!
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 85-110 for -26.41 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.5%. This angle also had a huge week, 5-13 for -7.38 units. fade these qualifiers whenever they come up.
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 189-101 for +38.94 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.4%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario. This angle lost -0.29 units last week, but over 3 units of which came on a single Yankees loss on Saturday.
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 84-171 for -36.74 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.4%. This is the double whammy scenario to fade and it continued losing last week with -1.23 units.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 111-69 for +29.71 units, and an ROI of 16.5%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we are including it on the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward. We gained +3.44 units again last week.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 62-25 for +5.16 units. This remains an uncustomary winning half-year for this angle, although we are getting closer to the red after another -1.35 units week this past seven days.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 92-29 for +18.21 units, a ROI of 15.1%.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 61-24 for +6.23 units. We remain just a couple of losses away from going into the usual negative territory. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 218-246 for +15.32 units, ROI +3.3%.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, and are struggling to get back in the black, 179-207 for -10.85 units.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 112-118 for -1.67 units (ROI -0.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so it’s good to see this angle finally coming around as we just passed midseason. After two bad weeks in a row (-11.23 units), this year’s record is looking more and more like usual, 57-58, -1.82 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 119-92 for +0.9 units, after having recovered from a very slow start.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it has cooled lately after a strong start, 65-57 for -7.34 units. This angle has been a disappointment so far.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of an in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings and the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams for the week.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 6/29)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.91
2. CHICAGO CUBS: 3.27
3. HOUSTON: 3.31
4. TEXAS: 3.33
5. SAN DIEGO: 3.36
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 5.93
29. WASHINGTON: 5.84
28. ARIZONA: 5.31
27. LA ANGELS: 5.17
26. COLORADO: 4.63
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. HOUSTON: 1.12
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.15
3. TORONTO: 1.17
4. TEXAS: 1.2
5. SAN DIEGO: 1.21
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. ATHLETICS: 1.62
29. WASHINGTON: 1.55
28. LA ANGELS: 1.53
27. COLORADO: 1.44
26. ARIZONA: 1.43
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.72
2. TORONTO: 9.86
3. BALTIMORE: 9.68
4. NY YANKEES: 9.49
5. MINNESOTA: 9.45
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.27
29. DETROIT: 7.56
28. COLORADO: 7.57
27. MIAMI: 7.74
26. ST LOUIS: 7.77
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. CHICAGO CUBS: 0.63
2. MIAMI: 0.83
3. PITTSBURGH: 0.93
4. DETROIT: 1
5. ST LOUIS: 1.01
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. BOSTON: 2.06
29. TAMPA BAY: 2.02
28. CLEVELAND: 1.93
27. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.7
26. LA ANGELS: 1.56
I use a manual process to analyze daily box scores and build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number reflects the statistics listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday, 6/23:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. CHICAGO CUBS: +10 points
1. ST LOUIS: +10
3. PITTSBURGH: +7
4. LA DODGERS: +6
4. MIAMI: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. CLEVELAND: -12 points
2. SAN FRANCISCO: -9
3. BOSTON: -8
4. NY METS: -7
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/30)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. CHICAGO CUBS: 35
2. HOUSTON: 30
3. ATLANTA: 22
4. TEXAS: 21
5. NY YANKEES: 19
6. SAN DIEGO: 17
7. BALTIMORE: 17
8. SAN FRANCISCO: 16
9. MILWAUKEE: 15
10. ST LOUIS: 15
11. TAMPA BAY: 12
12. BOSTON: 12
13. MINNESOTA: 12
14. KANSAS CITY: 12
15. PITTSBURGH: 12
16. MIAMI: 12
17. DETROIT: 11
18. SEATTLE: 10
19. LA DODGERS: 9
20. TORONTO: 9
21. CINCINNATI: 8
22. CLEVELAND: 5
23. LA ANGELS: 0
24. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 0
25. NY METS: -3
26. PHILADELPHIA: -4
27. ARIZONA: -17
28. COLORADO: -18
29. WASHINGTON: -25
30. ATHLETICS: -33
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are three teams on a 3+ game winning streak (MIA, STL, PIT) and three teams on a 3+ game losing skid (CLE, NYM, ARI).
