MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for June 9:
I’m here with another weekly MLB Bullpen Systems update. While not everything was rosy, we did have one major shining star once again over the last seven days: our Better Bullpen Underdog system went 23-17 in 40 games, bringing back over 10 units of profit! We are now up to over +13 units for the season, and this most popular of all of the systems has been on a major roll of late, producing seven straight winning weeks! The rest of the angles produced modest numbers, so I will just share those in their usual place. As part of this weekly update, I will also be sharing some new information I found on the relationship between good starters and bad bullpens, and vice versa.
Before I dig into some of the new numbers I found, I wanted to voice some frustration with what I witnessed from DraftKings over the weekend, as they somehow managed to slide some higher vig numbers into our baseball betting. I’m confident this hasn’t just affected me, so I’m sure many of you share my frustration. I long for the old offshore days of dime lines in MLB betting. It certainly made betting high volumes of games each day with systems more worth the effort. I tell you what, if it wasn’t for the continued success of the better bullpen underdogs, and Denny Hamlin’s win on Sunday (my simulator projection), I would’ve probably been venting a lot more. Hopefully, this move doesn’t impact our systems too much over the course of the rest of the year.
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After hearing from a reader this past weekend on X, I decided to dig into my data and look at an interesting proposition he brought up. He wanted to know if there was any relationship between winning/losing wagers when a bad bullpen backs an elite starting pitcher. I assume he was probably thinking about the trials and tribulations of a pitcher like Paul Skenes of Pittsburgh, who continues to boast incredible starts one after another, yet doesn’t have the won-lost record to support it. I decided to look at this situation a little closer, as well as the opposite scenario. Here’s what I found:
- Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 21-24 for -10.39 units. This represents an ROI of -23.1% and proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in games.
- Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 66-84 for -19.91 units. This represents an ROI of -13.3%.
- Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 169-104 for +26.89 units. This represents an ROI of +9.8%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
- Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 75-151 for -35.23 units. This represents an ROI of -15.6%. This is the double whammy scenario to avoid.
What’s the moral of these stories? Well, to me, it shows that both the starting pitcher and relief staff are important in terms of a full game of baseball. A huge variation in the strength of one over another can often find failed support by the other.
The updated system numbers are below. I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. They just aren’t accounted for as much as starting pitching by oddsmakers, thus giving bettors value in typically at least 1/3 of games or more.
What’s the easiest way to use these bullpen ratings? Well, there can be more profitable ways (by ROI) requiring fewer plays, but the easiest method I have now is detailed in the very first system below. I have called it fittingly THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. By simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units in the ’23 season. It lost about twice as much last season, so I’ve been hoping for a bounce-back year in 2025. We could be on our way to getting that.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 6/8:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 462-385 for +5.72 units and an ROI of 0.7% so far in the regular season. We’re off a slight losing week, giving back -3.24 units of profit. To get a full perspective on the advantage of this strategy, playing almost every MLB game on the board, the average MLB bettor now using it and playing it would theoretically be down over -50.5 units.
It’s been a pretty good first 2+ months of the season overall for the MLB Bullpen Systems, and the easiest angle producing almost +8 units of profit is testament to that. However, I personally prefer using greater discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I am behind these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
** NEW ’25 IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 88-50 for +24.95 units, and an ROI of 18.1%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we are including it on the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward. We gained +1.8 units last week.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 52-20 for +7.68 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it is losing ground nearly every week lately and is just a few heavily priced favorite losses from going negative.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a VERY strong start, 75-23 for +16.28 units, a ROI of 16.6%.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 53-20 for +7.06 units. However, this system also remains just a few games away from going negative and has trended back to normalcy over the last few weeks.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025. We are well in the black again and riding a seven-week winning streak. For the season, the record is now 166-180 for +13.71 units.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams struggled out of the gate, but are now 141-156 for -2.55 units after a +4.72 units week.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 82-90 for -4.19 units (ROI -2.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (42-38, +6.42 units) are somewhat surprising.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 97-74 for +1.16 units, having recovered from a slow start.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to another strong start, 53-43 for -0.3 units. This coming off -7.21 units last week, our worst of the season.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 6/8)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.32
2. NY METS: 2.91
3. SAN DIEGO: 3.04
4. TAMPA BAY: 3.19
5. TORONTO: 3.28
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. ATHLETICS: 5.99
29. WASHINGTON: 5.81
28. LA ANGELS: 5.49
27. ARIZONA: 5.28
26. BALTIMORE: 4.87
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.06
2. TORONTO: 1.1
3. MINNESOTA: 1.15
4. SAN DIEGO: 1.16
5. HOUSTON: 1.16
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. ATHLETICS: 1.66
29. WASHINGTON: 1.59
28. LA ANGELS: 1.56
27. BALTIMORE: 1.46
26. ARIZONA: 1.45
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. HOUSTON: 10.28
2. TORONTO: 10.12
3. BALTIMORE: 9.82
4. NY YANKEES: 9.8
5. MINNESOTA: 9.7
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.26
29. COLORADO: 7.47
28. ST LOUIS: 7.59
27. DETROIT: 7.66
26. KANSAS CITY: 7.96
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. CINCINNATI: 0.67
2. BALTIMORE: 0.71
3. HOUSTON: 0.81
4. TEXAS: 0.83
5. MIAMI: 0.87
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. NY METS: 1.61
29. ST LOUIS: 1.56
28. ATHLETICS: 1.56
27. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.55
26. WASHINGTON: 1.52
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday, 6/2:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. BALTIMORE: +13 points
2. SAN DIEGO: +9
3. CINCINNATI: +8
3. LA ANGELS: +8
5. MILWAUKEE: +6
5. ATHLETICS: +6
5. CHICAGO CUBS: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. ATLANTA: -11 points
2. NY METS: -8
3. NY YANKEES: -6
3. KANSAS CITY: -6
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/9)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 38
2. CHICAGO CUBS: 32
3. HOUSTON: 26
4. SAN DIEGO: 26
5. MINNESOTA: 24
6. TORONTO: 24
7. TEXAS: 20
8. DETROIT: 19
9. CLEVELAND: 18
10. TAMPA BAY: 18
11. NY METS: 14
12. BALTIMORE: 14
13. NY YANKEES: 13
14. MILWAUKEE: 13
15. ATLANTA: 11
16. LA DODGERS: 10
17. BOSTON: 10
18. CINCINNATI: 10
19. KANSAS CITY: 9
20. ST LOUIS: 6
21. MIAMI: 4
22. SEATTLE: -2
23. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -3
24. PHILADELPHIA: -4
25. PITTSBURGH: -5
26. ARIZONA: -7
27. LA ANGELS: -7
28. COLORADO: -12
29. WASHINGTON: -18
30. ATHLETICS: -28
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are four teams on a 3+ game winning streak (NYM, CIN, PIT, SF) and four teams on a 3+ game losing skid (PHI, ATL, ARI, COL). All of them are in the National League.
