MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for May 19:
Systems betting in any sport can have its temporary ups and downs, but one of the reasons I believe in the strategy, and in particular my MLB Bullpen Systems, is that I tend to believe that over the long haul, if the system is foundational in nature, it will thrive. This past week wasn’t a profitable one overall for my bullpen angles, as a rough Saturday “rivalry” day put a dent in the numbers, but it wasn’t all bad either. That’s how it goes sometimes. The underdog, importance of pitching, and streak systems won, the easiest system lost, and some of the league’s worst bullpen teams continue to play terrible baseball as a whole. As I get into further details of each, let’s call this MLB Bullpen Systems Update: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.
For the last few seasons, most of the VSiN baseball bettors who have followed my MLB Bullpen Systems and have been in communication with me have always been high on the better bullpen underdog angle. It’s not surprising, as most successful baseball bettors do love underdog teams that can change games late. I haven’t heard much from those readers in the early part of the season as the underdog systems have floundered, but now, as they ride three-week winning streaks, I am starting to hear the positive reviews again. This past week’s positive returns brought the overall season unit tally to -7.24, the best since early April. This angle is clearly turning around and ready to get back in the black in the coming weeks. The importance of pitching and streak angles continue to produce, even in overall down weeks.
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The “bad” part of this MLB Bullpen Systems update focuses on the overall losing returns for the “easiest” system last week, as it was down over -9 units. However, there were some lessons to be learned from it, as one day in particular, Saturday, incurred -7.3 units of the loss. And one game in particular that day lost -3.95 units. Followers of mine know that I resent baseball games with lines in the -250 and higher range, as there is simply not enough motivation to justify prices like this in a 162-game season. In fact, if anything, in a “rivalry” weekend, the motivation of being such a huge underdog may be the greater influencer.
Now for the “ugly” part of this update, which focuses on the eight lowest-rated teams on my bullpen ratings. Their current records, along with their net betting units, paint an absolutely clear picture as to why it is a fundamentally sound strategy to consistently fade teams whose bullpens aren’t performing and can’t keep them in or change games late. You can see the bottom eight ranked bullpen teams below (#23-#30). As of Monday, those eight teams have combined for a record of 133-237 for -77.69 units. That is an ROI of -21% simply by having bet against these teams all season long, and if you go back to my early-season updates, you would have found teams like Washington, Chicago White Sox, Colorado, Pittsburgh, and Miami amongst those teams. In addition, just a few weeks ago in this same piece, I focused a lot on the massive bullpen struggles of teams like the Angels and Orioles. Add the Athletics to that mix now, as they’ve been the biggest dropping team in back-to-back weeks.
Before digging into the updated numbers, remember I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. They just aren’t accounted for as much as starting pitching by oddsmakers, thus giving bettors value in typically at least 1/3 of games or more.
What’s the easiest way to use these bullpen ratings? Well, there can be more profitable ways (by ROI) requiring fewer plays, but the easiest method I have now is detailed in the very first system below. I have called it fittingly THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. By simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units in the 2023 season. It lost about twice that last season, so I’ve been hoping for a bounce-back year in 2025. We could be on our way to getting that.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 5/18:
The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 325-269 for +5.39 units and a ROI of 0.9% so far in the regular season. This is still a solid early return compared to what the average bettor playing every MLB game this season would be down, almost -37 units.
We lost over -9 units on this system last week, but -7.3 of them came on Saturday alone, in what was a brutal “rivalry” day. In fact, Arizona’s 14-12 loss to Colorado that day cost -3.95 units alone. That game was a clear-cut example of why I personally never play a baseball game over -250 or so. Like many bettors, I prefer using greater discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I personally am still playing these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
** NEW 2025 IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 68-34 for +25.86 units, and an ROI of 25.4%! To ensure this isn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we are including it on the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage at least 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 39-13 for +10.53 units. This remains a winning year for this angle, but it did lose nearly -3 units last week and is trending back to its normal ways.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 56-19 for +6.86 units, an ROI of 9.1%.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 46-16 for +8.77 units. However, this system remains just a few games away from going negative.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 112-136 for -7.24 units. However, we are coming off three straight winning weeks, so we are trending back towards profitability.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 98-119 for -13.06 units. This is still a disappointment, but coming off three straight winning weeks.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 54-60 for -4.97 units (ROI -4.4%), and have dropped -16.1 units over the last six weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (28-29, -0.67 units) are somewhat surprising, but we have gone into normal negative territory for the first time all season.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. So far, it is 67-47 for +4.98 units, seemingly having recovered from a slow start.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a decent start, 40-26 for +8.49 units, an ROI of 12.1%.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 5/18)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.51
2. HOUSTON: 2.71
3. MINNESOTA: 2.89
4. DETROIT: 2.92
5. NY METS: 3.05
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. LA ANGELS: 7.06
29. WASHINGTON: 6.55
28. ATHLETICS: 5.82
27. ARIZONA: 5.34
26. BALTIMORE: 4.93
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.04
2. HOUSTON: 1.08
3. MINNESOTA: 1.1
4. SAN DIEGO: 1.12
5. DETROIT: 1.16
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. LA ANGELS: 1.75
29. WASHINGTON: 1.67
28. ATHLETICS: 1.64
27. BALTIMORE: 1.49
26. COLORADO: 1.47
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. TORONTO: 10.61
2. HOUSTON: 10.07
3. NY YANKEES: 10.05
4. MINNESOTA: 9.8
5. PHILADELPHIA: 9.68
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. KANSAS CITY: 7.34
29. ST LOUIS: 7.44
28. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.55
27. COLORADO: 7.58
26. PITTSBURGH: 7.66
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. HOUSTON: 0.66
2. MIAMI: 0.8
3. TORONTO: 0.85
4. NY YANKEES: 0.85
5. MINNESOTA: 0.87
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. ATHLETICS: 2.32
29. LA ANGELS: 2.03
28. ARIZONA: 2.01
27. ATLANTA: 1.74
26. DETROIT: 1.5
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday, 5/12:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. MINNESOTA: +11 points
2. CHICAGO CUBS: +10
3. MIAMI: +9
4. NY YANKEES: +8
5. ST LOUIS: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. ATHLETICS: -10 points
2. LA ANGELS: -7
3. SAN DIEGO: -6
3. BALTIMORE: -6
3. LA DODGERS: -6
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 5/19)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. MINNESOTA: 32
2. HOUSTON: 26
3. NY YANKEES: 24
4. SAN FRANCISCO: 24
5. ATLANTA: 21
6. TORONTO: 17
7. NY METS: 16
8. SAN DIEGO: 16
9. DETROIT: 16
10. LA DODGERS: 14
11. TEXAS: 14
12. KANSAS CITY: 13
13. CLEVELAND: 12
14. TAMPA BAY: 12
15. CINCINNATI: 11
16. MILWAUKEE: 11
17. CHICAGO CUBS: 10
18. ST LOUIS: 10
19. BOSTON: 7
20. SEATTLE: 7
21. PHILADELPHIA: 4
22. ARIZONA: 3
23. BALTIMORE: 1
24. MIAMI: -3
25. PITTSBURGH: -11
26. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -11
27. ATHLETICS: -15
28. COLORADO: -17
29. WASHINGTON: -24
30. LA ANGELS: -31
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are seven teams on a 3+ game winning streaks (SEA, LAA, PHI, WAS, CHC, CIN, SF) and seven teams on a 3+ game losing skids (BAL, CLE, CHW, ATH, PIT, LAD, SD):
