MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update for May 5:
This past week was a solid one for my MLB Bullpen Systems, as all of them gained ground besides the “Easiest” angle. It was a week filled with a lot of late wins and losses, so teams seemed to be treading water in terms of their ratings, although one particular team endured one of the worst statistical weeks I can recall in quite a while.
Before updating you on the system records, the biggest news of all is that I was able to find what seems to be a solid foundational system that has produced consistently since the beginning of last season, when I started logging all of my bullpen data. I have decided to name this system the IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, and it shows how even lesser teams can have a nice edge in games where they have both the starting pitching and bullpen edges. The detailed records of the system are below, and it is hitting at nearly +20% ROI this season after eclipsing +11% ROI for the full 2024 regular season. We will be adding this to our daily MLB Analytics Reports and tracking it going forward.
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I also mentioned earlier that one particular team that really struggled last week. If you were following the action on the diamond, I’m sure I’m not sharing anything new to you, but that team was the Los Angles Angels, who lost 17 points on my bullpen rating scale, a drop so significant that they went from ranked 26th to dead last since Tuesday, the 29th. Looking closer at some of the specific statistical numbers, over their last six games, the Angels’ bullpen has gone 16-1/3 innings, allowing 33 earned runs (18.18 ERA) and a WHIP of 2.59. They yielded 10 home runs in that span as well. It’s a good illustration of just how quickly a team can rise or fall in my rating system. Although in producing these ratings for 15 years now, I can’t recall a week ever so horrific for a team. To no one’s surprise, LA was just 1-5 in the six games.
There were several other highlights from this past week’s action on the MLB Bullpen Systems, notably the turnaround by better bullpen underdogs, a system I was on the verge of putting in hibernation, and the ability for better bullpens to snuff out losing streaks. There’s plenty more good news below.
Before we dig in to the updated results of the regular season however, just my weekly reminder. I have always embraced the idea that better bullpen teams are the stronger wager when assessing the options. They just aren’t accounted for as much as starting pitching by oddsmakers, thus giving bettors value in typically at least 1/3 of games or more.
What’s the easiest way to use these bullpen ratings? Well, there can be more profitable ways (by ROI) requiring fewer plays, but the easiest method I have now is detailed in the very first system below. I have called it THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. By simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units in the 2023 season. It lost about twice as much last season, so I’ve been hoping for a bounce-back year in 2025. We could be on our way to getting that.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to the MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday, 5/4:
The quickest way to play the bullpen system
– For the ’25 season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 have gone 245-202 for +9.36 units and a ROI of 2.1% so far in the regular season. This is a solid early return for what has been a long-running strategy I have embraced, especially when you consider that the average bettor playing every MLB game this season theoretically would be down -25.27 units.
We have given a little back in each of the last two weeks, and there are still bettors who prefer narrowing down the plays and using greater discernment in their baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I personally am still playing these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
** NEW IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN AND STARTER
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 53-29 for +16.2 units, and a ROI of 19.8%! To ensure this wasn’t a fluke run, I went back and tabulated the results from the 2024 full regular teams, and teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and a ROI of 11.1%. This seems to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically, and we will be including it on the daily MLB Analytics Reports going forward.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 27-6 for +12.65 units. This has to be slowly draining the sportsbook, and I’d be surprised if it kept up.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 35-10 for +10.37 units, an ROI of 23%.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons’ most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are unusually positive, 30-11 for +3.75 units. However, this system remains just a game or two away from going negative again.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025, but the start has been slow, 76-103 for -14.92 units. However, we are off a +6.27 unit week, so we will keep this system on the daily reports for now.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging deeper into the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’ems) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 328-350 record, for +9.84 units (ROI 1.1%) in the full 2024 season. I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. For 2025, these teams have struggled out of the gate, as they are 66-90 for -18.22 units. This is still a disappointment early, but we were able to capture back +5.08 units last week.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 39-47 for -7.86 units (ROI -9.1%), and have dropped -18.89 units over the last four weeks. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so this year’s results (22-21, +1.08 units) are uncharacteristic.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend a three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and so far it is 44-36 for -6.45 units. It is nearing extinction level as it seems that fewer and fewer streaks are reaching the four-game level recently.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 231-159 for +40.34 units over the last two regular seasons, maintaining remarkable consistency as well. The ROI during that span has been 10.3%! For 2025, it is off to a fabulous start, 32-19 for +9.23 units, a ROI of 18.1%.
Again, these simple angles can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that have been accumulated so far to start the regular season, as well as my current Bullpen Power Ratings.
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 5/4)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. SAN DIEGO: 1.73
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 2.5
3. DETROIT: 2.57
4. HOUSTON: 2.84
5. TAMPA BAY: 2.97
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. LA ANGELS: 7.02
29. WASHINGTON: 6.55
28. BALTIMORE: 5.08
27. MILWAUKEE: 4.87
26. MIAMI: 4.83
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. SAN DIEGO: 0.97
2. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.03
3. DETROIT: 1.05
4. HOUSTON: 1.11
5. CINCINNATI: 1.15
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. LA ANGELS: 1.73
29. WASHINGTON: 1.66
28. BALTIMORE: 1.6
27. MIAMI: 1.53
26. ATHLETICS: 1.46
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. TORONTO: 10.53
2. NY YANKEES: 10.08
3. HOUSTON: 10.03
4. SAN DIEGO: 9.53
5. MINNESOTA: 9.53
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. SEATTLE: 7.17
29. KANSAS CITY: 7.25
28. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.29
27. ST LOUIS: 7.38
26. CINCINNATI: 7.46
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. PHILADELPHIA: 0.86
2. ATLANTA: 0.91
3. SAN FRANCISCO: 0.98
4. SAN DIEGO: 1.01
5. CINCINNATI: 1.02
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. LA ANGELS: 2.59
29. WASHINGTON: 1.75
28. BALTIMORE: 1.73
27. MIAMI: 1.66
26. TEXAS: 1.62
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since Monday 4/28:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. KANSAS CITY: +7 points
2. ARIZONA: +4
2. CHICAGO CUBS: +4
2. CINCINNATI: +4
2. COLORADO: +4
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. LA ANGELS: -17 points
2. HOUSTON: -7
2. BALTIMORE: -7
4. TEXAS: -5
4. MINNESOTA: -5
4. CLEVELAND: -5
4. MIAMI: -5
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 5/5)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. SAN DIEGO: 33
2. LA DODGERS: 25
3. NY YANKEES: 23
4. SAN FRANCISCO: 23
5. ATLANTA: 22
6. DETROIT: 21
7. HOUSTON: 20
8. NY METS: 18
9. CLEVELAND: 17
10. TAMPA BAY: 17
11. ARIZONA: 15
12. MINNESOTA: 12
13. TORONTO: 11
14. KANSAS CITY: 10
15. ATHLETICS: 8
16. TEXAS: 7
17. MILWAUKEE: 7
18. BALTIMORE: 6
19. PHILADELPHIA: 4
20. CHICAGO CUBS: 3
21. CINCINNATI: 3
22. SEATTLE: 2
23. BOSTON: -2
24. ST LOUIS: -3
25. PITTSBURGH: -5
26. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -8
27. MIAMI: -10
28. COLORADO: -10
29. WASHINGTON: -13
30. LA ANGELS: -20
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are two teams on a 3+ game winning streaks (SD, SF) and two teams on a 3+ game losing skids (PIT, COL).
