MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update
For this week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update, in addition to sharing the latest results and key stats/ranks, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to look at the results by team in games in which that team held a Makinen bullpen rating edge over its opponent. The results are extremely interesting, and could provide savvy bettors another filtering mechanism to boost their overall profits. Let’s get right into it. Here are the current records and betting results for the season to date (thru 6/2) for games in which a team held the bullpen rating edge:
1. MILWAUKEE: 31-20 +10.7 units, ROI 21.0%
2. CLEVELAND: 34-19 +10.78 units, ROI 20.3%
3. NY YANKEES: 35-17 +10.14 units, ROI 19.5%
4. MINNESOTA: 27-16 +7.9 units, ROI 18.4%
5. ST. LOUIS: 13-7 +3.57 units, ROI 17.9%
6. KANSAS CITY: 9-6 +2.08 units, ROI 13.9%
7. CINCINNATI: 9-6 +1.68 units, ROI 11.2%
8. PHILADELPHIA: 25-14 +3.33 units, ROI 8.5%
9. BOSTON: 15-12 +1.86 units, ROI 6.9%
10. BALTIMORE: 26-16 +2.72 units, ROI 6.5%
11. TORONTO: 4-2 +0.22 units, ROI 3.7%
12. SEATTLE: 24-19 +1.5 units, ROI 3.5%
13. ARIZONA: 16-12 +0.86 units, ROI 3.1%
14. OAKLAND: 12-13 -0.45 units, ROI -1.8%
15. DETROIT: 21-19 -1.62 units, ROI -4.1%
16. SAN FRANCISCO: 14-14 -1.59 units, ROI -5.7%
17. LA DODGERS: 29-18 -5.17 units, ROI -11.0%
18. WASHINGTON: 5-7 -1.44 units, ROI -12.0%
19. SAN DIEGO: 14-14 -4.3 units, ROI -15.4%
20. NY METS: 16-20 -6.79 units, ROI -18.9%
21. ATLANTA: 18-14 -6.94 units, ROI -21.7%
22. CHICAGO CUBS: 6-8 -3.12 units, ROI -22.3%
23. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 3-7 -2.28 units, ROI -22.8%
24. TAMPA BAY: 13-16 -8.47 units, ROI -29.2%
25. TEXAS: 4-6 -4.61 units, ROI -46.1%
26. HOUSTON: 12-21 -15.45 units, ROI -46.8%
27. PITTSBURGH: 5-9 -7.04 units, ROI -50.3%
28. MIAMI: 4-10 -8.2 units, ROI -58.6%
29. LA ANGELS: 1-7 -6.22 units, ROI -77.8%
Top MLB Resources:
As you can see, three particular teams have produced the lion’s share of the profits for backers this season. The Brewers, Indians, and Yankees have each enjoyed tremendous performances from their bullpens this season and it is a major reason why all three are leading their respective divisions by at least three games heading into this week’s action.
Alternatively, the Astros have been a massive loss leader early in the season, costing backers 15.45 units so far. Houston’s uber-talented bullpen was rated very highly by myself and others heading into the season but struggled mightily out of the gate. As a team they are usually priced very highly as well, so every look takes a big toll. However, patience could be rewarded the rest of the way, as the Astros are playing better baseball of late and have turned things around over the last few weeks with their bullpen. The Rays and Marlins have also cost bettors at least eight units each as well. Interestingly, those teams meet for three games starting on Tuesday in Miami, and the visiting Rays hold the bullpen edge.
By the way, if you’re wondering, Colorado is missing from this list as it has not enjoyed a bullpen rating edge in any game yet this season.
Now, back to the overall bullpen system results. One of the key points that every bettor needs to realize about these bullpen systems is that even with a -0.5% season-long ROI for the EASIEST WAY system, it still provides a tremendous advantage over simply randomly stabbing at games. In fact, the average baseball bettor performs at -3.1% ROI over the course of a season. As I stressed before, this line of thinking is foundational and gives bettors a consistent advantage.
After numerous inquiries last year on how to use this valuable info, I shared with readers THE EASIEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM. You will see that by simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage than the opponent, you would have netted +45.66 units. That is a pretty nice 2.2% return for a very simple yet very fundamentally sound methodology. The ROI for this year is -0.7% after a prolonged period of up & down results. Looking at the “easiest way” results since my last bullpen update by day:
Monday 5/27: 3-5, -2.64 units
Tuesday 5/28: 7-6, -0.5 units
Wednesday 5/29: 6-10, -6.25 units
Thursday 5/30: 4-4, -1.22 units
Friday 5/31: 8-3, +2.8 units
Saturday 6/1: 11-4, +4.14 units
Sunday 6/2: 6-7, -3.14 units
Overall, the last seven days produced a record of 45-39 for -6.81 units, leaving us at –11.15 units for the season. VSiN readers who have followed me for years know that I preach persistence when it comes to this method of wagering. It is a foundational belief that drives this system, and peaks and valleys are part of it, but long-term winning is the goal. When you consider that the average MLB bettor playing every game for the season would be approximately 84.4 units down with average performance, being only 11.15 units down for this system has still provided a tremendous advantage. Narrowing down the plays and using greater discernment in your baseball wagering can provide an even bigger edge. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Now, here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday 6/2:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
Better-rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher went 1200-916 in the 2023 regular season for +45.66 units, a 2.2% season-long return on investment. So far in 2024, they are 445-368 for -11.15 units. This is well below usual standards. Perhaps “easiest” isn’t always best. Hence the reason for the following angles:
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that big favorites of -190 or higher with better bullpens and a winning percentage of 19% or more than their opponent were 145-61 for +9.08 units in the regular season. Some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle settled at +4.4%. In the early part of the 2024 season thus far, the record of this angle is still slightly negative at 53-22 for -1.67 units.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 38-24 for -13.75 units and an ROI of -22.2%. Last week’s 7-1 (+4.95 unit) performance slowed our progress.
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the regular season! This angle is so far 27-18 since opening day ‘24 and has lost -12.3 units, a season long ROI of -27.3%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the early part of the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 139-156 record, for +4.66 units (ROI 1.6%). This angle has settled in well lately, and I expect that to continue.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 124-119 record, for +17.33 units (ROI 7.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
Worse bullpens struggle to extend winning streaks
In 2023, found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, a ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with a record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024 so far, these two-game teams have gone 74-83 for -5.36 units. The three-game teams are 38-38 for +2.85 units. Both systems are trending in the expected direction lately.
Better bullpen teams were capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 83-70 for +0.44 units (0.3% ROI) through Sunday 6/2.
Better bullpen teams thwarted potentially lengthy losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 81 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 6/2, and these teams are 41-38 for -1.34 units. This angle seems to be picking up steam lately and I expect it to go positive soon.
These simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that were accumulated in games through Sunday 6/2:
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 6/2)
Top 5 Bullpen ERAs
1. CLEVELAND: 2.42
2. NY YANKEES: 2.87
3. LA DODGERS: 3.07
4. ATLANTA: 3.34
5. OAKLAND: 3.42
Worst 5 Bullpen ERAs
30. COLORADO: 5.02
29. LA ANGELS: 4.85
28. TEXAS: 4.79
27. TORONTO: 4.56
26. CHICAGO CUBS: 4.45
Top 5 Bullpen WHIPs
1. CLEVELAND: 0.98
2. LA DODGERS: 1.08
3. SEATTLE: 1.14
4. NY YANKEES: 1.16
5. BALTIMORE: 1.16
Worst 5 Bullpen WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.6
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.5
28. KANSAS CITY: 1.45
27. TEXAS: 1.38
26. ARIZONA: 1.38
Top 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. NY METS: 10.8
2. PITTSBURGH: 9.79
3. CLEVELAND: 9.75
4. PHILADELPHIA: 9.7
5. CHICAGO CUBS: 9.66
Worst 5 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. KANSAS CITY: 6.89
29. COLORADO: 7.28
28. ARIZONA: 7.39
27. TORONTO: 7.59
26. DETROIT: 8.12
Top 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. SEATTLE: 0.76
2. MILWAUKEE: 0.88
3. CLEVELAND: 0.89
4. PHILADELPHIA: 0.91
5. MINNESOTA: 0.91
Worst 5 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 2.22
29. KANSAS CITY: 1.94
28. NY METS: 1.65
27. CHICAGO CUBS: 1.59
26. OAKLAND: 1.5
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since 5/27
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
T-1. PHILADELPHIA: +8 points
T-1. SEATTLE: +8
T-3. TEXAS: +7
T-3. LA DODGERS: +7
T-5. CLEVELAND: +6
T-5. TAMPA BAY: +6
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. KANSAS CITY: -8 points
2. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -7
T-3. CHICAGO CUBS: -6
T-3. NY METS: -6
T-3. LA ANGELS: -6
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/3)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. CLEVELAND: 28
2. LA DODGERS: 27
3. MILWAUKEE: 20
4. MINNESOTA: 19
5. HOUSTON: 19
6. NY YANKEES: 18
7. PHILADELPHIA: 15
8. SAN DIEGO: 13
9. ATLANTA: 10
10. BOSTON: 10
11. CINCINNATI: 8
12. TAMPA BAY: 7
13. SEATTLE: 6
14. WASHINGTON: 6
15. BALTIMORE: 5
16. ST. LOUIS: 5
17. SAN FRANCISCO: 4
18. OAKLAND: 4
19. TEXAS: 1
20. MIAMI: -1
21. TORONTO: -3
22. CHICAGO CUBS: -4
23. ARIZONA: -4
24. DETROIT: -4
25. NY METS: -6
26. PITTSBURGH: -7
27. LA ANGELS: -10
28. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -12
29. COLORADO: -13
30. KANSAS CITY: -16
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are three teams on 3+ game winning streak (NYY, SEA, MIL) and three teams on a 3+ game losing skids (CWS, LAA, SF).
