MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
Forgive me for not keeping my bullpen update articles up-to-date as I have been taxed with the start of the football season for much of the last month. That said, the records of the key MLB Bullpen Systems have continued to be maintained daily on the VSiN MLB Analytics Reports, and I hope you are following along and enjoying the results. We have reached the stretch run of the regular season and are steaming towards the playoffs. Any fans/bettors of baseball know that bullpens, both from a performance and availability standpoint, are of utmost importance when it comes to this time of year.
Fans of VSiN are quite familiar with my affection for betting teams with the best bullpens and fading those with the worst relief staffs. Unfortunately, the 2024 season has proven it is by no means a foolproof strategy, as while still keeping my bankroll afloat, my usual reliable game-by-game bullpen systems have been off as far as their usual production levels are concerned. However, some of them have maintained their productive, consistent levels, which I am personally continuing to rely on as we hit the final two-week stretch of the 2024 regular season. Those specifically would be the ones involving small underdogs with better bullpens and fading/following teams with bullpen edges or deficiencies in streaks.
Top MLB Resources:
As we enter play on Monday, September 16th, my top three rated bullpens, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Milwaukee, have all made significant moves to improve or solidify their playoff standing in recent weeks. At the same time, the four teams in the playoff hunt now with negative bullpen ratings have all slipped in recent weeks and are now looking at longer playoff odds because of it. That is no coincidence. You’ll find all of my current ratings as of today below, with the teams in the postseason hunt highlighted as part of this full MLB Bullpen Systems Update.
For those of you perhaps new to VSiN for the football season, and hence new to the MLB Bullpen Systems, they derive from my own fundamental belief that backing teams with better bullpen performance consistently throughout a season will lead to profits, or in the least, minimize losses. It has done so in every year I have shared the logic. This season has been a somewhat volatile one for the “easiest” angle. Although we still remain in negative territory for this simplest of the systems, I have preached that diligent patience is key to letting this methodology bloom.
This season, I have come up with a method of using my bullpen ratings in what I call the “THE QUICKEST WAY TO PLAY THE BULLPEN SYSTEM.” You will see that by simply taking the better-rated bullpen team on my scale and avoiding those -190 or higher favorites that weren’t at least 19% better in winning percentage and had a starting pitcher rating at least 20 points higher than the opponent, you would have netted -102.34 units in 2024. This is WAY off from the results of last year, when this same system produced +45.66 units of profit. Still, it is a starting point and a sizeable advantage than simply trying to play every game randomly without any systematic foundation. Bettors doing that would be down -210 units, so essentially, this method of playing better bullpens has cut losses in half. Unfortunately, what I have learned this year is that quickest is never best, and hence the reason I have formulated all of the other bullpen systems that I employ and share with readers in the VSiN Analytics Reports every day. Looking at the “quickest way” results over the last week by day:
Monday 9/9: 2-5, -3.47 units
Tuesday 9/10: 4-7, -3.75 units
Wednesday 9/11: 5-8, -3.77 units
Thursday 9/12: 3-2, +0.77 units
Friday 9/13: 10-3, +8.34 units
Saturday 9/14: 8-6, +1.64 units
Sunday 9/15: 6-7, -1.72 units
Overall, the last seven days produced a record of 38-37 for -0.54 units. While not profitable, this is certainly a good starting point for a wagering strategy that involves playing nearly every game on the baseball betting board each day.
Narrowing down the plays and using greater discernment in your baseball wagering can provide an even bigger edge. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. I personally am still playing these on a daily basis, and as you can see, they are still faring well.
Remember, to fully implement these strategies into your daily baseball betting routine, you only need two things: 1) the details of the systems as noted below and 2) VSiN Pro Access to MAKINEN DAILY POWER RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.You can also have the work of qualifying the angles done for you in our latest VSiN feature called the MLB Analytics Report. No serious baseball bettor should be without it.
Here is an update of the various system records with results through Sunday 9/16:
The quickest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2024 season, better rated bullpen teams that were NOT favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20 are 1020-926 for -102.34 units. This is WELL below usual standards after the tweak, and while I will still continue to follow and track the system, there are better ways than the QUICKEST way to use the bullpen rating data. That said, for playing nearly every game on the board, it is still an advantageous strategy, as the average bettor playing every MLB game for the season to date would be at -210.1 units lost.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A ’23 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The ROI on this angle finalized at +4.4% ROI last year. As of 9/16, the record of this angle in 2024 has settled at 98-38 for -0.14 units.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In games of the 2023 regular season in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team owned a 171-106 record, but for -84.47 units. That represented an ROI of -30.5%! So far in 2024, these teams are again losing money, 117-68 for -34.45 units and a ROI of -18.6%.
Fading overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites went just 80-74, but for -87.21 units in the 2023 regular season! This angle is so far 70-42 since opening day 2024 and has lost -24.11 units, an ROI of -21.5%, solid results once again.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Moneyline underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. So far in the 2024 season, these teams have produced a 332-414 record for -29.07 units (ROI -3.9%). This is well below my standards historically, but I am nowhere near ready to abandon it.
Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick ’em) in the -110 to +144 range, these teams have produced a 295-318 record for +5.81 units (ROI 0.9%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive.
Worse bullpens struggle in extending winning streaks
In 2023, I found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks was also a strong strategy. On two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup were 240-249 for -28.51 units, an ROI of -5.8%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the regular season with record of 99-119 for -16.61 units. The ROI on that system finished at -7.6%. For 2024, these two-game teams have gone 174-219 for -48.69 units (-12.4% ROI). The three-game teams are 82-92 for -10.72 units (-6.2% ROI).
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “quickest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak are 186-169 for –52.59 units (-14.8% ROI) through Sunday 9/15. This is a massive one-year swing for this system in 2024, and it was removed from the Analytics Report for the rest of the season several weeks ago.
Better bullpen teams thwarted potentially lengthy losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the ’23 regular season. The ROI for the season closed at 11.2%! There have been 175 plays on this angle so far in 2024 through 9/15 and these teams are 102-73 for +16.73 units (9.6% ROI). This foundational angle has been one of the most consistent of our systems.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report.
Here are the updated key bullpen stats that were accumulated in games through Sunday 9/15:
Key Bullpen Stats (through games of Sunday, 9/15)
Top 5 MLB Bullpen ERAs
1. CLEVELAND: 2.68
2. MILWAUKEE: 3.19
3. ATLANTA: 3.25
4. HOUSTON: 3.49
5. LA DODGERS: 3.59
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen ERAs
30. COLORADO: 5.39
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 4.87
28. TORONTO: 4.78
27. PITTSBURGH: 4.6
26. TEXAS: 4.57
Top 5 MLB Bullpen WHIPs
1. CLEVELAND: 1.05
2. DETROIT: 1.15
3. MILWAUKEE: 1.17
4. SEATTLE: 1.17
5. ATLANTA: 1.19
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen WHIPs
30. COLORADO: 1.55
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 1.53
28. PITTSBURGH: 1.39
27. TEXAS: 1.39
26. KANSAS CITY: 1.38
Top 5 MLB Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. NY METS: 10.51
2. PHILADELPHIA: 9.75
3. ATLANTA: 9.68
4. SEATTLE: 9.67
5. HOUSTON: 9.51
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen K’s/9 innings
30. KANSAS CITY: 7.76
29. COLORADO: 7.77
28. TORONTO: 7.92
27. ARIZONA: 8.15
26. DETROIT: 8.15
Top 5 MLB Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. MIAMI: 0.64
2. CLEVELAND: 0.78
3. SAN DIEGO: 0.78
4. NY YANKEES: 0.89
5. DETROIT: 0.91
Worst 5 MLB Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. BALTIMORE: 1.72
29. TEXAS: 1.67
28. NY METS: 1.65
27. OAKLAND: 1.61
26. ARIZONA: 1.49
I use a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM MLB Bullpen Power Ratings since 9/9:
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. CLEVELAND: +9 points
T-2. MIAMI: +8
T-2. NY YANKEES: +8
4. ST LOUIS: +7
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. TEXAS: -15 points
2. BALTIMORE: -12
3. CHICAGO CUBS: -8
4. LA DODGERS: -7
5. NY METS: -6
Steve’s Current MLB Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 9/15)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. CLEVELAND: 33
2. ATLANTA: 30
3. MILWAUKEE: 30
4. PHILADELPHIA: 19
5. HOUSTON: 19
6. SAN DIEGO: 19
7. LA ANGELS: 19
8. SEATTLE: 18
9. DETROIT: 18
10. TAMPA BAY: 18
11. NY METS: 17
12. ST LOUIS: 16
13. LA DODGERS: 13
14. NY YANKEES: 13
15. SAN FRANCISCO: 12
16. CHICAGO CUBS: 11
17. CINCINNATI: 2
18. MIAMI: 1
19. TORONTO: -1
20. MINNESOTA: -3
21. OAKLAND: -5
22. KANSAS CITY: -6
23. ARIZONA: -7
24. BALTIMORE: -9
25. WASHINGTON: -9
26. PITTSBURGH: -10
27. TEXAS: -20
28. COLORADO: -24
29. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: -32
30. BOSTON: -33
The teams in bold/italics are those still in the realistic running for the postseason. These are sorted first by bullpen ranking, and then by overall team power rating.
As we head into this week’s games, there are five teams on 3+ game winning streaks (TOR, HOU, SEA, WAS, SD) and five teams on 3+ game losing skids (TEX, LAA, MIA, STL, SF).
