This column will bring you the quick-hitting stats, tidbits and factors you need to know to evaluate today's landscape of MLB games. No narratives, no fluff, no editorializing; just the cold, hard data to help you plan out your bets. Projections and Bets Stats courtesy of THE BAT X and EV Analytics.
Today's Best Starting Pitchers
Top MLB Resources:
1. MIL – Brandon Woodruff (No. 6 out of 345)
2. ATL – Charlie Morton (No. 12)
3. LAD – Walker Buehler (No. 15)
Today's Worst Starting Pitchers
1. TEX – Jordan Lyles (No. 312 out of 345)
2. PHI – Matt Moore (No. 301)
3. LAA – Jaime Barria (No. 269)
Today's Most Pitcher-Friendly Umpires
1. NYY at LAA – Jim Wolf (No. 15 out of 111)
2. STL at CIN – Cory Blaser (No. 24)
3. HOU at SEA – Ryan Additon (No. 28)
Today's Most Hitter-Friendly Umpires
1. COL at TEX – Gerry Davis (No. 13 out of 111)
2. ATL at LAD – Jeff Nelson (No. 17)
3. BOS at TB – Alan Porter (No. 21)
Today's Hottest Games
1. MIA at NYM (83 degrees)
2. CLE at KC (80 degrees)
3. PHI at WSH (79 degrees)
Today's Coldest Games
1. MIL at SF (56 degrees)
2. HOU at SEA (64 degrees)
3. ATL at LAD (68 degrees)
THE BAT's Highest Projected Team Totals
· Toronto Blue Jays
Projected: 5.97 runs | Vegas O/U: 6.5 O %plussign% 115
· New York Yankees
Projected: 5.95 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105
· Chicago White Sox
Projected: 5.41 runs | Vegas O/U: 5.5 O -105
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THE BAT's Lowest Projected Team Totals
· San Francisco Giants
Projected: 3.36 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O %plussign% 105
· Miami Marlins
Projected: 3.55 runs
· Seattle Mariners
Projected: 3.61 runs | Vegas O/U: 3.5 O %plussign% 115
THE BAT's Highest Projected Game Totals
· Orioles at Blue Jays
Projected: 10.03 runs | Vegas O/U: 10.0 O %plussign% 100
· Yankees at Angels
Projected: 9.93 runs
· Athletics at Tigers
Projected: 9.65 runs | Vegas O/U: 9.5 O %plussign% 100
THE BAT's Lowest Projected Game Totals
· Brewers at Giants
Projected: 7.58 runs
· Marlins at Mets
Projected: 7.95 runs
· Astros at Mariners
Projected: 8.32 runs | Vegas O/U: 8.0 O -105
GAMES OF THE DAY
Cincinnati Reds (71-62) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (67-63)
O/U: 8.5 | CIN -155 | STL %plussign% 135
Sonny Gray (THE BAT's No. 34 SP) vs. Miles Mikolas (THE BAT's No. 115 SP)
Cory Blaser (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 24 in MLB)
Great American Ball Park (No. 3 Runs | No. 1 HR | No. 5 K)
74 degrees (No. 8 coldest today)
6 mph in from LF (No. 7 strongest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Sonny Gray's fastball (2419 rpm) has lost 102 rpm of spin this season relative to 2020
· Great American Ball Park is baseball's No. 2 best park for home runs, but Sonny Gray's ground ball-heavy skillset (52% GB% since 2019) should help insulate him against the long-ball
· Given that Ground ball pitchers are least effective against Fly ball hitters, Sonny Gray (52% GB% since 2019) will be at a disadvantage today with two Fly ball hitters in the opposition's projected lineup
· Miles Mikolas has been one of the luckier pitchers in baseball this year. His 2.70 ERA is 1.18 points below his 3.88 FIP
· According to THE BAT X, the Cardinals and their 0.306 wOBA have been the No. 5 luckiest offense in 2021
· St. Louis boasts three active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Home Run Zone Launch Angle% this season, No. 4 (tie) most in MLB (Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong)
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Moneyline has lopsided action today with 72% of the cash and 60% of the bet tickets on the Reds
Toronto Blue Jays (69-61) vs. Baltimore Orioles (40-90)
O/U: 10.0 | TOR -300 | BAL %plussign% 250
Hyun-Jin Ryu (THE BAT's No. 39 SP) vs. Keegan Akin (THE BAT's No. 227 SP)
Bill Welke (Extreme Hitters Umpire, No. 39 in MLB)
Rogers Centre
73 degrees (No. 7 coldest today)
6 mph in from LF (No. 6 strongest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Hyun Jin Ryu's fastball usage (33% in 2021, 23% in 2020) has increased 10% this season
· Fly ball pitchers tend to perform better against Fly ball hitters, and Keegan Akin (38% FB% since 2019) is projected to face two of them today
· Keegan Akin is projected to face nine opposite-handed hitters today, which makes this matchup more difficult given his large platoon split
· The Blue Jays are the No. 3 least strikeout prone offense today, projecting for an underlying K% of 20.9% according to THE BAT X
· The Blue Jays have four players (Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 5 (tie) most in MLB
· Baltimore boasts five active bats with a 75th percentile or higher Max Exit Velocity% this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB (Pedro Severino, Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, Ramon Urias, Ryan Mountcastle)
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Orioles Run Line has steamed 15 cents as it opened at %plussign% 1.5 (%plussign% 150) and is now %plussign% 1.5 (%plussign% 135)
· The Blue Jays Run Line has 83% of the bet tickets and 65% of the cash resulting in a very lopsided handle
· There is lopsided action on the Moneyline as 90% of the cash and 55% of the bet tickets is on the Blue Jays
· There is lopsided action on the Game Total as 66% of the bet tickets and 68% of the cash is on the OVER
Arizona Diamondbacks (44-89) vs. San Diego Padres (70-62)
O/U: 8.5 | ARI %plussign% 140 | SD -160
Zac Gallen (THE BAT's No. 40 SP) vs. Blake Snell (THE BAT's No. 45 SP)
Tony Randazzo (Extreme Pitchers Umpire, No. 30 in MLB)
Chase Field (No. 11 Runs | No. 25 HR | No. 26 K)
78 degrees (No. 4 hottest today)
Roof Closed (No. 1 weakest winds today)
DATA NUGGETS
· Zac Gallen is throwing a fastball 15% more often this season (54% usage) than he did last season (39% usage)
· Zac Gallen is throwing a cutter 15% less often this season (9% usage) than he did last season (24% usage)
· Blake Snell has a large platoon split and is projected to be at a platoon disadvantage against seven opposite-handed hitters today
· THE BAT projects Blake Snell (3.83 projected ERA) to be much better going forward than his 4.58 ERA season-to-date indicates
· The Padres have five players (Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr., Tommy Pham, Victor Caratini, Manny Machado) with a Max Exit Velocity in the 75th percentile or higher this season, No. 1 (tie) most in MLB
BETTING INSIGHTS
· The Run Line has lopsided action today with 98% of the cash and 51% of the bet tickets on the Padres
