MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, April 1.
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6:40 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
This game features two pitchers returning from injury after previously dominant seasons: Kodai Senga of the Mets and Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. Alcantara is not back to his Cy Young form and, frankly, likely won’t get there, but he did record seven strikeouts in 4 2/3 innings in his season debut. Senga, shaking off the rust after missing the 2024 playoffs, posted a 2.98 ERA with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings in his lone full MLB season in 2023. Also working in Senga’s favor is a Miami Marlins lineup whose entire starting nine combined for just 45 career home runs—only one more than Anthony Santander hit by himself last season.
Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 6.9)
7:05 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees
While Corbin Burnes’ strikeout numbers dipped last season with the Baltimore Orioles, he still put together a strong campaign, recording a 2.92 ERA and a 3.55 FIP with 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing just one home run per nine. He’s backed by a Diamondbacks lineup that led the league in scoring last season and should thrive against Yankees starter Will Warren. Warren has allowed at least three runs in all six of his career appearances, sporting a lifetime 10.32 ERA with two home runs and four walks per nine innings.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -112 (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -143)
7:40 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Shane Smith will make his MLB debut for the White Sox after posting strong minor league numbers last season, including a 3.05 ERA and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he faces a tough first test against a Twins lineup that ranked 10th in the league in runs per game last season. The White Sox bullpen, which finished 28th in ERA last season, won’t provide much relief. While their offense came alive on Monday with nine runs, they’ll be up against Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson, who posted a 4.17 ERA with 7.8 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings last year.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1)
8:10 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Houston Astros
Logan Webb simply isn’t the same pitcher on the road, with a career 2.78 ERA at home compared to a 4.09 ERA away. He faces Hayden Wesneski, making his Astros debut after spending most of his career with the Cubs. Wesneski posted a 3.86 ERA with 8.9 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings and will be backed by both the better lineup and bullpen on Tuesday. Houston ranked eighth in bullpen ERA last season, while the Giants ranked 15th. The Astros also compensated for the loss of Alex Bregman in the offseason by signing Christian Walker.
Pick: Astros Moneyline +105 (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -111)
9:40 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Seattle’s ballpark suppresses run scoring more than any other MLB stadium, and Mariners starter Logan Gilbert is coming off a dominant 2024 season in which he averaged 9.5 strikeouts and just 1.6 walks per nine innings. He also opened the 2025 season with seven scoreless innings. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Casey Mize struggled in 2024 with a 4.49 ERA, but his 3.95 FIP suggests he was slightly better than his ERA indicates. After missing the entire 2023 season due to major surgery, Mize is now in his second year post-recovery and should improve on his 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings from last season.
Pick: Under 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 6.7)
10:05 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Oakland Athletics
While Justin Steele has allowed eight runs in his first two starts of the season, those outings came on the road against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks—last season’s two highest-scoring teams in the National League. Steele should return to form, having posted a 2.87 road ERA in 2024 while allowing less than one home run per nine innings. On the other side, Athletics starter Luis Severino is coming off six scoreless innings against the Mariners, but his four walks in that game are a concern. He also benefited from pitching in Seattle, the most run-suppressing ballpark in the league.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -133)
