MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, April 14.
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6:45 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker finished the 2024 season with a 7.10 ERA and 6.94 fielding independent with 2.6 home runs per nine innings allowed across 19 appearances and has done the opposite this season with not allowing a single run in two starts through two starts, but has had to escape plenty of jams with four walks and two hit by pitches through 10 2/3 innings. Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp has a 3.58 ERA since getting called to the majors in 2024, providing a 3.15 fielding independent with just two home runs allowed on 60 1/3 innings.
Picks: Giants +115 and Over 8.5 (Greg’s Handicap Giants -109 and Total 9.2)
7:05 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco has been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball since leaving the Cleveland Guardians, posting a 5.39 ERA since the start of the 2021 season with 1.5 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings allowed. Royals starting pitcher Seth Lugo is coming off of a 2024 season in which he gave up just 0.7 home runs per nine innings, but had allowed at least 1.2 home runs per nine innings each of the previous four seasons. This season, he is pitching to a lot of contact with 6.5 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings allowed, but has a 3.24 ERA.
Picks: Royals +116 and Over 8.5 (Greg’s Handicap Royals -107 and Total 9.1)
7:07 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Easton Lucas has been a pleasant surprise for the Blue Jays, not allowing a single run in two starts this season across 10 1/3 innings. He faces a Braves lineup that entered Sunday averaging only 3.3 runs per game this season. Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes has a 3.61 ERA since getting called up to the MLB level in 2024, allowing 0.9 home runs and 2.8 walks per nine innings with a 3.37 fielding independent.
Pick: Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.4)
7:40 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Former Tigers pitcher Tyler Alexander gets the start for the Brewers. Alexander is coming off of a 2024 season in which he posted a 5.08 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed. Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal had a 2.39 ERA and 2.49 fielding independent last season. Though Skubal allowed seven runs in his first two starts of the season, he looked like his Cy Young self in his last start against the New York Yankees with six shutout innings and is backed up by a lineup that entered Sunday third in the American League in scoring with five runs per game.
Pick: Tiger Run Line -1.5 +115 (Greg’s Handicap Tigers Run Line -1.5 -109)
7:45 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sonny Gray has delivered at his best at home since the Cardinals picked him up last season, posting a 3:10 ERA with less than 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed in St. Louis compared to a 4.98 ERA on the road with over 1.9 home runs per nine innings allowed while Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez has had command issues to begin the season, issuing seven walks through three starts. While Valdez has a 2.50 ERA thus far in 2025, his 3.60 fielding independent points towards regression. The Astros entered Sunday averaging fewer than 3.8 runs per game, ranking 20th in the league.
Pick: Cardinals Money Line +104 (Greg’s Handicap Cardinals Money Line -107)
