MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, April 16.
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1:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
What was supposed to be a start for Reese Olson on the mound for the Detroit Tigers will now be Keider Montero, who is making his first start at the MLB level in 2025. He had a shaky 2024 season in which he supplied a 4.76 ERA and 5.15 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs per nine innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that ranks ninth in scoring with over 4.8 runs per game. Brewers starting pitcher Jose Quintana hurled seven scoreless innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his first start of the season, but had just two strikeouts. Dating back to the start of the 2024 season, Quintana appears due for regression with a 3.60 ERA and a 4.40 fielding independent.
Pick: Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.7)
1:15 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals
While Cardinals starting pitcher Steven Matz is off to a good start this season, allowing two runs across 11 2/3 innings in five relief appearances, this is his first start. His ERA as a starter was 6.12 last season, and 4.04 was his ERA as a starter in 2023. His ERA coming out of the bullpen was 2.81 in 2023 and 2.25 in 2024. Astros starting pitcher Ronel Blanco has allowed nine runs across three starts and 12 2/3 innings this season, but owns a 3.20 fielding independent and has generated 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing just one home run so far this season.
Picks: Astros Moneyline -110 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros Moneyline -112 and Total 8.1)
4:10 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres
The biggest weakness for Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta in his career is allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings, which was amplified playing in Boston the past five seasons. Playing at Petco Field, where his lifetime ERA is 1.69, should suppress that number. Cubs starting pitcher Matthew Boyd has a low 2.38 ERA since 2024 started, but a 3.32 fielding independent with 3.2 walks per nine innings issued. He is backed by a bullpen that entered Tuesday with a 4.78 ERA, which ranks 25th in the league.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -113 (Greg’s Handicap Padres -158)
6:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Bailey Falter has struggled to a 7.20 ERA through three starts this season and is backed up by a Pirates lineup that entered Tuesday averaging 3.5 runs per game, which ranks 25th in the league. Nationals starting pitcher Mitchell Parker has surrendered just four earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in three starts this season. The Nationals lineup is 11th in runs per game with just under 4.6 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -102 (Greg’s Handicap Nationals -124)
Seattle Mariners vs. Cincinnati Reds
Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller has very demonstrative home and road splits, posting a lifetime 2.73 ERA at home with just over 0.8 home runs allowed and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings allowed compared to a 4.60 ERA on the road with 7.2 strikeouts and over 1.4 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home. Reds starting pitcher Nick Martinez has a 3.40 ERA and 3.32 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 1.2 walks per nine innings allowed since joining the Reds prior to the start of the 2024 season.
Picks: Reds Moneyline +105 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Reds Moneyline -106 and Total 8.4)
6:45 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
While the name brand of Phillies starter Aaron Nola carries lots of weight, his performance has left something to be desired. Since 2021, Nola owns a 3.98 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings. Former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray has yet to live up to that moniker with the Giants, posting a 4.11 ERA and 5.25 fielding independent since joining the team in 2024, allowing 1.8 home runs and 4.9 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -128 and Over 7.5 (Greg’s Handicap Phillies -144 and Total 8.1)
