MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, April 19.
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1:05 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
After Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker had an awful 7.10 ERA last season, he has looked like a new man this season with a 2.30 ERA through three starts with eight strikeouts per nine innings. Marlins starting pitcher Cal Quantrill has allowed just three runs across two starts in 10 total innings after getting tagged for six runs in four innings in his first start of the season. He is backed by a lineup that is averaging only 2.8 runs per game away from home.
Pick: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.8)
3:07 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays starting pitcher Jose Berrios has exhibited notable home and road splits, posting a career 3.58 ERA with fewer than one home run allowed per nine innings and 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings at home, compared to a 4.66 ERA with 1.5 home runs allowed and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings on the road. Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has had command issues throughout his career away from home, posting a 3.83 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the road compared to a 6.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio at home. Entering Friday, the Blue Jays were tied for 11th in bullpen ERA while the Mariners ranked 17th.
Picks: Blue Jays Moneyline +110 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Blue Jays -106 and Total 7.7)
4:05 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles
Orioles prospect Brandon Young makes his MLB debut on the mound after a really good 2024 season at the AAA level for Norfolk. There, he registered a 3.44 ERA in 20 appearances with 9.7 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed. Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league since the 2024 season began, posting a 2.75 ERA in 2024 and has been even better in 2025 with three runs allowed across 27 1/3 innings in four starts this season, allowing just one home run while notching 10.1 strikeouts and 1.3 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.1)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes has been as dominant as it gets since being called up to the MLB level last season. He has posted a 2.12 ERA and 2.28 fielding independent with 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings with only 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. Guardians starting pitcher Ben Lively has a 4.87 ERA this season, but is sporting a 4.37 fielding independent with pedestrian numbers of 7.1 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a Guardians bullpen that has the league’s lowest ERA since the beginning of the 2024 season. Lively faces a Pirates lineup that entered Friday 26th in the league in runs per game, with under 3.4 runs per game.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Under 8 Runs (Greg’s Projected Total 7.1)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga has been dominant since coming over from Japan prior to the start of the 2023 season, with a 2.81 ERA and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, only allowing 0.9 home runs per nine innings. Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore seems to be figuring it out as a young, developing starter. Though Liberatore has a 3.93 ERA, his fielding independent is 1.91 with only one home run and one walk allowed across his first three starts in 18 1/3 innings. He faces a Mets lineup that entered Friday averaging 3.7 runs per game at home, the fewest of any National League team.
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.4)
7:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski has a career-best 10.5 strikeouts and 1.5 walks per nine innings through three starts with a 4.00 ERA. Padres starting pitcher Michael King already has three wins this season, posting a 2.42 ERA with 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He has allowed just 0.8 home runs per nine innings. An additional break for King, the Astros’ bats have started cold, entering Friday ranked 23rd in runs per game at under 3.7 runs per game.
Picks: Padres Moneyline -120 and Under 8.5 (Greg’s Handicap Padres -136 and Total 7.9)
Athletics vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino enters with a 4.01 ERA and 4.74 fielding independent, allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings this season. Brewers starting pitcher Chad Patrick has allowed just one run across 14 1/3 innings in his three starts at the MLB level, following a 2024 season for AAA Nashville in which he had a 14-1 record and a 2.90 ERA. While the Brewers bullpen ERA is one of the worst in the league, in 2024, they had the National League’s lowest bullpen ERA and still have their numbers warped by the series they played against the New York Yankees to begin the season.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -122 (Greg’s Handicap Brewers -144)
