MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, April 25.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize looks to be back to his normal self in year two after major surgery, posting a 2.22 ERA through four starts this season. Orioles starter Brandon Young makes just his second career start after allowing seven hits and three runs in four innings during his MLB debut at home against the Cincinnati Reds. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th in the league with a 4.60 ERA, while the Tigers bullpen sports a 2.70 ERA, good for fifth in the majors.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline -119 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: -143)
6:45 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Mets starter Kodai Senga has been dominant, allowing just two earned runs across 22 2/3 innings in his first four starts. For his career, he’s giving up just 0.9 home runs per nine innings. Nationals pitcher Jake Irvin has improved his walk rate each MLB season and enters with a 3.65 ERA and just 2.1 walks per nine innings this year.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
7:05 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Yankees pitcher Carlos Carrasco has struggled with a 6.53 ERA and 5.74 FIP, along with just 6.5 strikeouts and 2.2 home runs allowed per nine innings. On the other side, Blue Jays starter José BerrÃos has a 5.02 ERA and a career-high 4.1 walks per nine innings, but he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.
Picks: Blue Jays Moneyline +120 and Under 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -111, Total: 8.6)
7:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starter Ben Lively has done a great job limiting hard contact, allowing 1.1 home runs per nine innings this year compared to 1.6 over the past two seasons. He’s posted a 3.86 ERA in 2024. Red Sox pitcher Tanner Houck owns a bloated 7.66 ERA, heavily influenced by one disastrous outing in which he gave up 11 earned runs against the Rays. Career-wise, Houck has been better on the road (3.65 ERA) than at home (3.89 ERA).
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
7:40 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals pitcher Seth Lugo has been pitching to contact with 6.3 strikeouts and 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, yet holds a 3.90 ERA despite a 5.43 FIP. Astros pitcher Hayden Wesneski similarly owns a 3.91 ERA with a 4.90 FIP, allowing 2.3 home runs per nine innings.
Picks: Royals Moneyline +105 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -131, Total: 8.2)
8:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies offense continues to display drastic home/road splits, averaging just 2 runs per game on the road with a .184 batting average compared to 5 runs and a .254 average at home. Reds starter Andrew Abbott has allowed just two runs over two starts this season but owns a career 4.61 FIP, suggesting regression is likely. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has allowed at least three total runs in four straight starts.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.8)
9:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Zac Gallen has posted an ERA near 3.00 in home games since the start of 2023 and should rebound from a tough start to this season that has inflated his ERA to 5.60 despite 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Braves starter Chris Sale has a 6.17 ERA, but his 3.80 FIP suggests better days are ahead. He’ll face a Diamondbacks lineup leading the league in runs per game since the start of 2024.
Picks: Diamondbacks Moneyline +108 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -127, Total: 7.9)
