MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, April 27.
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1:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal has rounded back into Cy Young form, allowing just two runs across his past three starts after looking a bit shaky in his first two starts of 2025. Orioles starting pitcher Dean Kremer, meanwhile, has had a rough go of it, allowing seven home runs across 25 innings in five starts, posting a 6.84 ERA overall this season. Behind him is a taxed bullpen that had to pitch a doubleheader on Saturday.
Pick: Baltimore Orioles vs. Detroit Tigers Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.7)
2:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Kris Bubic has put it all together this season, giving up only five earned runs across his first five starts for a 1.45 ERA, with 9.6 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings. Astros starter Hunter Brown hasn’t allowed a run in any of his past three starts, totaling 19 innings, but the team has still lost two of his five starts this season despite his 1.16 ERA, largely because they’re averaging only 3.6 runs per game away from home.
Picks: Royals Moneyline +117 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Royals -109 and Total 8.2)
2:15 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Brewers starting pitcher José Quintana has started his Brewers career on fire, allowing just two runs across 18 2/3 innings over three starts. However, his 3.56 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and only 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings suggest regression is likely coming. Cardinals starter Erick Fedde is also generating just 4.3 strikeouts per nine innings and, while he has a 3.33 ERA, his 5.07 FIP and 4.7 walks per nine innings are major concerns. Both teams entered Saturday ranked in the bottom five in bullpen ERA — the Brewers 28th with a 5.06 ERA and the Cardinals 26th at 4.97.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.4)
3:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starter Ryan Feltner has done a solid job given the circumstances this season, posting a 3.86 ERA and allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of his first five starts. He’s allowed just three earned runs across 11 innings at Coors Field this year. The Reds’ 5.7 runs per game on the road is skewed by their 24-run outburst against the Orioles last week. Reds starter Nick Lodolo has allowed just three runs across 18 1/3 innings in his first three road starts this season, sporting a 2.79 ERA overall, and faces a Rockies lineup averaging 5.2 runs per game at home.
Pick: Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies Under 11 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.7)
4:10 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins
Mariners starter Logan Evans is making his MLB debut after being a master of keeping the ball in the yard at the minor league level, with a career 0.4 home runs per nine innings allowed. Marlins starter Max Meyer has a 2.10 ERA with 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings this season, but his career 1.8 home runs per nine innings rate and the Marlins’ bullpen ERA of 4.19 (ranking 19th in the league) are concerns.
Pick: Mariners Run Line -1.5 +147 (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners Run Line -1.5 +123)
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Braves starter Spencer Schwellenbach enters having allowed nine total runs across his past two starts, with his strikeouts per nine innings rate down to 7.7. He’ll face a Diamondbacks lineup that has led the league in runs per game since the start of the 2024 season. Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt has allowed just two runs across his past three starts (17 2/3 innings) and has been stellar with his command, allowing only 1.5 walks per nine innings with a 2.73 ERA.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -102 (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -127)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres
Rays starter Zack Littell has had major issues with the long ball, allowing eight home runs in his first five starts and posting a 5.28 ERA with a 5.89 FIP. Padres starter Randy Vasquez is only generating 3.8 strikeouts per nine innings, but has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts and is backed by a Padres bullpen that led the league with a 1.76 ERA entering Saturday.
Picks: Padres Moneyline -115 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -151 and Total 8.3)
7:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs
Phillies starter Aaron Nola has looked anything but an ace this season, posting an 0-5 record with a 6.43 ERA, with career-worst rates of 1.9 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He faces a Cubs lineup that entered Saturday averaging 6.2 runs per game — no other team is averaging more than 5.4. Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has a 4.73 ERA but has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his past four starts.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline +102 (Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -123)
