MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Monday, April 28.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits.
Top MLB Resources:
4:05 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Mets starting pitcher Griffin Canning has experienced a career renaissance, recording nine strikeouts per nine innings with a 3.12 ERA this season after managing just 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings and a 5.19 ERA last season — all while being backed by a Mets bullpen whose 2.76 ERA ranks fifth in the league. Nationals starting pitcher Trevor Williams has a 5.11 ERA this season, but his 3.74 fielding independent pitching (FIP), along with 1.1 home runs and 2.6 walks allowed per nine innings, indicates positivity could be coming. Williams also posted a 2.03 ERA and 2.79 FIP in 2024.
Pick: New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.8)
6:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober has struggled to keep the ball in the park this season, allowing five home runs in his five starts across 25 innings with a 5.04 ERA. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams, on the other hand, has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts this season and is averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings across his past four starts — all while being backed by the league’s best bullpen in ERA since the 2024 season began.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -113 (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -129)
6:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante is lucky the damage against him hasn’t been worse, posting a 4.11 ERA with a 5.40 FIP, allowing 3.4 walks and 1.7 home runs per nine innings while getting only 5.4 strikeouts per nine. He’s backed by a Cardinals bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 4.80, while the Reds bullpen sports a 3.55 ERA. Reds starting pitcher Nick Martinez has been the opposite of Pallante, posting a rough 5.40 ERA but a more encouraging 4.27 FIP.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap Reds -137)
8:05 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Do not be fooled into thinking Rangers starting pitcher Patrick Corbin is good based on his 2-0 record and 3.77 ERA, as his 5.41 FIP and three home runs allowed in just 14 1/3 innings show he’s still a well below-average pitcher. That said, Athletics pitcher JP Sears is also not pitching as well as his 3.21 ERA would suggest, posting a 4.11 FIP this season. For his career, Sears owns a 4.76 FIP, with 7.4 strikeouts and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -103 (Greg’s Handicap Rangers -133)
