MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, April 5.
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2:10 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti closed the 2024 season strong with a 3.08 ERA and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings across his final 14 outings. He picked up right where he left off in his first start of 2025, allowing just one run in six innings. Twins starter Bailey Ober is coming off a rough debut, giving up eight runs while recording just eight outs. He’s backed by a lineup once again hampered by injuries, with Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee both on the injured list. The rest of the healthy lineup has gotten off to a sluggish start at the plate.
Pick: Astros +105 (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -109)
4:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Dodgers starter Roki Sasaki’s command has been shaky, issuing nine walks over just 4 2/3 innings across his first two starts. Still, he’s backed by a bullpen with a 1.83 ERA entering the series and an offense putting up over 5.6 runs per game. On the other side, Phillies starter Aaron Nola hasn’t quite lived up to his reputation, posting a 3.98 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed since the start of the 2021 season. He gave up five runs in his 2025 debut.
Pick: Dodgers +102 (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -117)
4:10 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starter Richard Fitts has made just five career starts, pitching to contact with only 4.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but he’s excelled at inducing soft contact, holding a 2.36 ERA so far. Cardinals starter Andre Pallante is also a contact-first pitcher, with a career 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.6 walks per nine. The Red Sox have revamped the pitching staff, moving Garrett Whitlock from the rotation to long relief, and entered the series ranked eighth in bullpen ERA.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -122 (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -149)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals
Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano comes over after a strong season in Japan’s NPB, though he was more of a pitch-to-contact type with just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. At age 35, he went four innings in his MLB debut, allowing two runs with only one strikeout. Royals starter Michael Wacha has found success since joining the team in 2024 with a 3.32 ERA, though his 3.68 FIP suggests potential regression. Even with Colton Cowser and Gunnar Henderson on the IL, the Orioles return most of the core from a team that ranked fourth in runs per game last season.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.1)
7:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Reds entered Friday having lost three straight games by a score of 1-0, but the bats could finally wake up against Elvin Rodriguez. He had a 7.59 ERA in Spring Training and owns a 9.49 career ERA across parts of three MLB seasons. He gave up four runs in four innings in his first start this year. Reds starter Brady Singer, meanwhile, allowed just one hit and no runs over seven innings in his Cincinnati debut. He faces a Brewers lineup that may have overperformed last season and has scored three runs or fewer in five of their first seven games in 2025.
Picks: Reds -105 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -124 and Total 8.7)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets
Griffin Canning starts for the Mets after posting a career-low 6.8 K/9 last year with the Dodgers, along with a 5.19 ERA and 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt faces his former team, carrying a 3.82 ERA and 4.14 FIP since joining Toronto. The Mets, who were eighth in runs per game last season (without Juan Soto), face a bullpen that had the worst ERA in the American League last year at 4.82 and has started this season with a 5.59 ERA.
Picks: Mets -122 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Mets -134 and Total 8.4)
8:10 PM Eastern
Oakland Athletics vs. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies offense has been ice cold, but playing at Coors Field—even in Saturday’s chilly weather—should help them snap out of it and top four runs for the first time this year. A’s starter JP Sears owns a 4.46 ERA and 4.86 FIP with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine since joining Oakland. Rockies starter German Márquez has flashed potential but holds a 5.07 ERA over 86 appearances at Coors. Both bullpens are taxed after Friday’s 11-inning game.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.9)
9:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants
The Giants give the ball to Robbie Ray, who may need to go deeper than usual after Friday’s extra-innings game. In eight starts with San Francisco, Ray has thrown just 36 total innings, issuing four walks and two home runs per nine. Mariners starter Bryce Miller posted a 2.98 ERA and 3.58 FIP last year, but he had notable home/road splits—his road ERA was 4.07 with 1.6 home runs per nine. The Mariners offense showed a major road boost in 2024, averaging nearly 4.6 runs per game away from home compared to under 3.8 at T-Mobile Park.
Picks: Mariners +115 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners +106 and Total 7.7)
