MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, April 6.
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1:35 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Dodgers are off to a historic 9-1 start and have about as much balance as a baseball team can ask for—ranking in the league’s top eight in runs per game, starting pitchers’ ERA, and bullpen ERA. Tyler Glasnow has been dominant since joining the Dodgers, with a 3.37 ERA that could be considered unlucky given his 2.85 fielding independent pitching (FIP). He’s averaging 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Cristopher Sanchez, on the other hand, is coming off a season in which he posted a career-low 7.6 strikeouts per nine but a career-best 0.5 home runs allowed per nine. He also improved in limiting hard contact compared to previous seasons.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -142)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees
Will Warren has allowed at least three runs in five of his seven major league appearances, posting a 9.11 ERA with two home runs and 4.6 walks per nine innings. Andrew Heaney, while holding just a 5-14 record and a 4.20 ERA over the past two seasons, has reduced his home run rate to 1.3 per nine and is getting 8.8 strikeouts to just 2.3 walks per nine.
Picks: Pirates +140 Moneyline and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Pirates +116, Total 9.2)
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Sandy Alcantara doesn’t look like the same pitcher who won the 2022 NL Cy Young Award. Though he’s shown a nice bump in strikeouts with 11 through 9 2/3 innings this season, his four walks have prevented him from working deep into games. Grant Holmes has thrived as both a starter and reliever over the past two seasons. His 3.80 ERA might not wow, but his 3.38 FIP, just one home run allowed, and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings suggest otherwise.
Picks: Braves -1.5 Run Line +140 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Braves RL -1.5 +107, Total 8.2)
1:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets
Bowden Francis has managed a 2.88 ERA since the start of 2023, even while giving up 1.5 home runs per nine innings. His 4.34 FIP shows there’s some shakiness behind the surface. David Peterson, meanwhile, is coming off a career-best 2.90 ERA season—his first below 3.44—despite his strikeouts per nine dropping to 7.5 after being 9.3 or higher in the three seasons prior.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1)
2:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
After a tough 2024 season, Carson Spiers started strong this year by allowing just one run over six innings. He faces a Brewers lineup that has scored three runs or fewer in six of their first eight games. Milwaukee is also scrambling in their rotation with Brandon Woodruff, Tobias Myers, and Aaron Civale all on the injured list. Chad Patrick posted an incredible 14-1 record at Triple-A last season, but his four walks in 5 2/3 innings across two MLB outings this year raise questions.
Picks: Reds Moneyline +126 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds +118, Total 8.7)
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Ronel Blanco posted a 2.80 ERA last season, but his 4.15 FIP suggests he benefited from some good fortune. On the other side, Chris Paddack has dealt with bad luck since joining the Twins—his 5.37 ERA overshadows a more respectable 4.04 FIP. He’s been solid with 8.2 strikeouts to 2.1 walks per nine innings. Unfortunately, his lineup is banged up, with Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee both on the injured list.
Pick: Astros Moneyline +102 (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -117)
2:20 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs
Ben Brown holds a 3.22 FIP since the start of 2024 but began the year in the bullpen and is issuing 3.4 walks per nine innings—possibly limiting his length. Padres starter Kyle Hart returns to MLB after a dominant 13-3, 2.69 ERA season in the KBO. He looks like a different pitcher than in his 2020 MLB debut, winning his 2025 debut with two runs allowed over five innings.
Pick: Padres Moneyline +120 (Greg’s Handicap: Padres +106)
4:07 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
Luis Ortiz joins the Guardians after a solid 2024 campaign with Pittsburgh, posting a 3.32 ERA and just 1.1 home runs allowed per nine. Tyler Anderson posted a 3.81 ERA last year but his 4.66 FIP and 3.7 walks per nine suggest there’s concern. However, he faces a Cleveland lineup that ranked 23rd in road scoring last year. The Angels were even worse overall—28th in 2024 run production—and now face a Guardians bullpen that led the league in ERA last season.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
7:10 PM Eastern (Game 2 of Doubleheader)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox
Miles Mikolas continues to pitch to contact, never having topped seven strikeouts per nine in any season. He’s coming off a 5.35 ERA year with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine. Richard Fitts has only made five MLB starts, averaging just 4.4 strikeouts per nine, but has been excellent at limiting hard contact with a 2.36 ERA.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -115 (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -147)
