MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, August 1.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
12:35 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has struggled this season, posting a 6.29 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 3.6 walks per nine innings. He has allowed 27 total runs—26 of them earned—over his past five starts. Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer has a 4.60 ERA and 3.5 walks per nine innings, but has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his past 13 starts.
Play: Reds Moneyline -116 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -139)
6:45 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers lead the league in road scoring with 5.4 runs per game and face a pitch-to-contact starter in Mitchell Parker, who is recording 5.9 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings with a 4.91 ERA. Brewers starter Jose Quintana has a 3.50 ERA, but a 4.77 fielding independent pitching (FIP) with 3.6 walks and 6.0 strikeouts per nine innings.
Play: Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.4)
7:10 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
While the Twins traded away several pieces at the deadline, starting pitcher Joe Ryan wasn’t one of them. He has a 2.82 ERA with 1.0 home runs, 1.8 walks, and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Guardians starter Gavin Williams has struggled with control, posting a 3.51 ERA but a 4.47 FIP with 1.2 home runs and 4.9 walks per nine innings. He’s backed by a lineup that ranks 26th in the league in scoring with 3.9 runs per game.
Play: Twins Moneyline +100 (Greg’s Handicap: Twins -111)
7:35 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Rays starter Shane Baz has allowed a lot of contact this season, with a 4.61 ERA, 1.4 home runs, and 3.3 walks per nine innings. Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw isn’t his vintage self, recording just 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s still limiting damage with only 0.9 home runs per nine innings and a 3.62 ERA, though his 4.10 FIP and the Dodgers’ 22nd-ranked bullpen ERA (4.24) raise some concerns.
Play: Rays Moneyline +133 (Greg’s Handicap: Rays +121)
9:40 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starter Nick Pivetta has been excellent at home, posting a 2.07 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings, compared to a 3.67 ERA and 1.4 home runs per nine innings on the road. Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore owns a 4.04 ERA this season and is backed by a bullpen that recently traded closer Ryan Helsley. Meanwhile, the Padres bullpen leads the league with a 2.97 ERA.
Play: Padres Run Line -1.5 +150 (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -1.5 +124)
