MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, August 10.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:35 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Reds starting pitcher Zack Littell appears due for regression on his 3.46 ERA, posting a 4.82 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Pirates offense that ranks last in scoring, averaging fewer than 3.6 runs per game. Pirates starter Mike Burrows has a 4.45 ERA this season with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Play: Reds Moneyline -105 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -138)
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starter Cade Povich has struggled this season with a 5.25 ERA and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he’s backed by a lineup averaging over 5.2 runs per game at home—fourth in the league. The Athletics send Luis Morales to the mound for his MLB debut after posting a 3.73 ERA in the minors. He’s supported by a bullpen with a 5.21 ERA, ranking 28th in the league.
Play: Orioles Moneyline -118 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -134 and Total 9.4)
4:05 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
The Nationals rank 10th in the league in road scoring, averaging 4.6 runs per game. They face Giants starter Justin Verlander, who owns a 4.29 ERA and is allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings at home. Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore has a 4.29 ERA and a 3.70 fielding independent but enters in a deep slump, having allowed 23 runs across his last four starts. Washington’s bullpen ERA of 5.88 is the worst in the league.
Play: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres
Padres starter Dylan Cease carries a 4.60 ERA, but his 3.51 fielding independent and NL-best 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings suggest positive regression is coming. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello has a 3.03 ERA while allowing just 0.9 home runs per nine innings. Both bullpens are strong—San Diego leads the league with a 3.07 ERA, while Boston ranks fifth at 3.39.
Play: Padres Moneyline -132 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Padres -144 and Total 7.9)
7:00 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cubs starter Shota Imanaga appears due for regression on his 3.12 ERA, with a 4.47 fielding independent, 1.6 home runs allowed, and just 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Cardinals starter Sonny Gray has a 4.21 ERA, but his 3.09 fielding independent indicates he may improve. However, Gray has allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts and faces a Cubs lineup that ranks second in the league in scoring, averaging 5.1 runs per game.
Play: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.3)
