MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, August 12.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Logan Allen has had command issues, allowing 3.5 walks with only 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings, posting a 3.96 ERA and a 4.42 fielding independent. Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk has a 3.97 ERA, but a very low 2.67 fielding independent with only 0.4 home runs and one walk allowed per nine innings, supported by a lineup that ranks fifth in road run production with 4.8 runs per game.
Picks: Marlins Moneyline +125 and Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins +117 and Total 8.4)
7:45 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore owns a 3.98 ERA this season, but may be due for positive regression with a 3.69 fielding independent, allowing just 0.9 home runs and 2.2 walks per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Kyle Freeland has a 5.53 ERA with 1.3 home runs allowed and 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings, backed by a bullpen ranked 29th in ERA at 5.50 and a lineup that is last in road run creation with under three runs per game.
Picks: Cardinals Run Line -1.5 +110 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -1.5 -118 and Total 9.1)
8:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti is making just his second start since April 5 and has a 7.43 ERA overall this season. Red Sox starting pitcher Dustin May has struggled with a 4.93 ERA, 1.3 home runs, and 3.7 walks per nine innings, though he’s backed by an offense that ranks fifth in the league in scoring at nearly five runs per game.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1)
9:38 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Tyler Anderson has allowed a lot of hard contact this season, posting a 4.63 ERA with 1.9 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings for a 5.51 fielding independent. Dodgers starting pitcher Emmet Sheehan owns a 3.00 ERA with 0.5 home runs allowed and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings, supported by a lineup that leads the league in scoring at nearly 5.2 runs per game.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -110 (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -127)
10:05 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Oakland Athletics
Rays starting pitcher Shane Baz owns a 4.92 ERA this season, allowing at least three runs in 13 of his past 18 starts. Athletics starting pitcher Jacob Lopez has a 3.59 ERA with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but is also allowing 1.3 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 28th in ERA at 5.14.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.3)
