MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, August 13.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
5:10 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene is making his first start since June 3, entering with a 2.72 ERA and 11 strikeouts per nine innings over 11 starts this season. In his minor league rehab starts leading up to Wednesday, he posted an eye-popping 16.6 strikeouts per nine innings, though that came with a 6.23 ERA. Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez has a 2.36 ERA with only 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he’s backed by a bullpen that ranks 23rd in ERA at 4.27.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +125 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds +108)
6:35 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Trevor Rogers has been one of the team’s lone bright spots this season, posting a 1.44 ERA with just two home runs allowed across 62 1/3 innings in his 10 starts. Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert has a 3.35 ERA with a 2.89 fielding independent and 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings, and he’s supported by a bullpen that ranks eighth in ERA at 3.63.
Pick: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.4)
6:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Marlins starting pitcher Eury Pérez owns a 3.25 ERA this season with just 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s supported by a lineup that ranks sixth in road scoring at 4.7 runs per game. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams has a solid 3.17 ERA, but his lack of control could lead to regression, as evidenced by his 4.43 fielding independent and 4.8 walks per nine innings.
Picks: Marlins Moneyline +110 and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -111 and Total 8.2)
7:07 PM Eastern
Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays
While Cubs starting pitcher Cade Horton has a solid 3.18 ERA, he might be due for some regression with a 3.90 fielding independent and only 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces a Blue Jays team that entered the series leading the American League in home scoring at over 5.2 runs per game. Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has had an up-and-down season, posting a 3.85 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.6 walks per nine innings. However, over his last eight starts, he’s posted a 2.51 ERA, allowing three earned runs or fewer in seven of those outings.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -120 (Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -141)
7:10 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros
While Red Sox starting pitcher Walker Buehler has looked better of late—allowing three earned runs or fewer in each of his past five starts—he still holds a 5.40 ERA this season with a 5.73 fielding independent, 4.1 walks, and 1.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. On the road, that ERA jumps to 6.52. Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown has a 2.51 ERA with 0.8 home runs and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings, and he’s supported by a bullpen whose 3.35 ERA ranks fourth in the league.
Pick: Astros Run Line -1.5 +135 (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -1.5 +104)
9:38 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Dodgers starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani has been superb in a small sample of 19 innings this season, posting a 2.37 ERA with 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s starting to provide more length, hitting a season-high four innings in his last start—a key boost for a Dodgers lineup that, since July 1, ranks in the bottom 10 in MLB in scoring with just under 4.1 runs per game. Angels starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks has a 4.63 ERA overall with six strikeouts and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, though his ERA improves to 3.88 at home.
Picks: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -125 and Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -1.5 -136 and Total 8.9)
