MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, August 14.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:05 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Orioles starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano is pitching to a lot of contact with only six strikeouts per nine innings, a 4.24 ERA, and a 4.96 fielding independent, along with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. Mariners starting pitcher Logan Evans has a 4.36 ERA and a 5.06 fielding independent, also allowing a lot of contact with 6.9 strikeouts and 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s supported by a lineup whose 5+ runs per game away from home lead the American League and a Mariners bullpen that ranks eighth in ERA at 3.61, while the Orioles are 25th at 4.74.
Picks: Mariners Moneyline -124 and Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -135 and Total 9.7)
6:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee has seen his strikeouts dip to a career-low 8.2 per nine innings, a big factor in his ERA rising to 4.60 this season. He faces a Marlins lineup that ranks sixth in road scoring with just under 4.7 runs per game. Marlins starting pitcher Edward Cabrera has a 3.08 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings, but his ERA climbs to 3.40 on the road, where he allows 1.2 home runs per nine innings compared to 0.8 at home.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
7:10 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder has struggled badly this season, posting a 6.12 ERA with 1.6 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings, allowing 34 total runs—33 earned—in his past seven starts. Mets starting pitcher Kodai Senga has a 2.30 ERA despite allowing 4.5 walks per nine innings, but he gets to face a banged-up Braves lineup that ranks 21st in scoring at 4.2 runs per game.
Pick: Mets Run Line -1.5 +105 (Greg’s Handicap: Mets -1.5 -111)
8:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Bradley Blalock has endured a rough season with a 7.89 ERA, 1.9 home runs allowed, and just 4.6 strikeouts per nine innings. His numbers balloon to an 11.76 ERA with five home runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings at home. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has also struggled, with a 5.68 ERA, 1.7 home runs, and 3.7 walks per nine innings. Both teams have bullpen issues, as the Diamondbacks rank 26th in ERA at 4.77 and the Rockies are 29th at 5.48.
Picks: Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5 -115 and Over 12 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -1.5 -122 and Total 12.3)
