MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, August 15.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
2:20 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs
The Pittsburgh Pirates rank last in the league in scoring, averaging 3.5 runs per game, but they benefit here from the wind blowing out and facing Cubs starter Colin Rea. Rea has a 4.09 ERA and a 4.67 fielding-independent pitching mark, allowing plenty of contact with just 6.4 strikeouts and 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Pirates pitcher Braxton Ashcraft owns a 3.19 ERA but is now transitioning into a starter/longer bulk role and will face a Cubs lineup that ranks third in the league in scoring at 5.1 runs per game.
Picks: Cubs Run Line -1.5 (+114) and Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -1.5 -121, Total 10.1)
7:07 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Rangers starter Jacob deGrom has had a solid season, but signs of regression are appearing. He carries a 2.86 ERA with a 3.53 FIP, allowing 1.3 home runs per nine innings. Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt owns a 4.17 ERA overall, but he’s been far better at home with a 2.56 ERA and just over 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. He’s supported by a lineup that ranks second in the American League in home scoring at 5.2 runs per game.
Picks: Blue Jays Moneyline (+103) and Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -101, Total 7.9)
7:10 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Boston Red Sox
Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has endured a brutal season, posting a 6.55 ERA that balloons to 8.87 on the road. He is backed by an offense ranking fifth in road scoring at 4.8 runs per game. The Red Sox lead the American League in home scoring with nearly 5.3 runs per game. Boston starter Lucas Giolito owns a 3.77 ERA with 1.3 home runs and three walks per nine innings, allowing at least four runs in three of his last five starts.
Picks: Red Sox Run Line -1.5 (+118) and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -1.5 -105, Total 9.6)
8:10 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
The Royals rank last in the league in home scoring at just 3.4 runs per game. Starter Noah Cameron has a 2.55 ERA, allowing two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 16 starts this season. He faces a White Sox lineup ranked 27th in scoring at 3.8 runs per game. White Sox starter Aaron Civale has a 4.91 ERA and a 4.42 FIP, with two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 14 starts.
Pick: Under 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2)
8:40 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starter Tanner Gordon has had a rough season, posting an 8.37 ERA with 24 runs (23 earned) allowed over his last three starts. He’s backed by a bullpen with a 5.48 ERA, ranked 29th in the league. The Diamondbacks rank sixth in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt has a 5.03 ERA with a career-low 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings and 1.4 home runs allowed per nine.
Picks: Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5 (-125) and Over 11.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -1.5 -142, Total 11.6)
10:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics
Athletics pitcher Jack Perkins is transitioning from the bullpen to a starting role, posting a 2.75 ERA in eight relief appearances compared to a 7.00 ERA in two starts. Both bullpens have struggled, with the Athletics ranking 28th (5.07 ERA) and the Angels 27th (4.79 ERA). Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi owns a 3.37 ERA but issues 3.8 walks per nine innings, and his ERA climbs to 4.50 on the road.
Picks: Angels Moneyline (-105) and Over 10 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Angels -119, Total 10.3)
