MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Sunday, August 17.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
1:37 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league this season with a 1.77 ERA, allowing just 1.6 walks and 0.6 home runs per nine innings. Blue Jays pitcher José Berríos has a 3.74 ERA and 4.43 fielding independent with only 7.5 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. His ERA also jumps to 4.00 at home this season.
Pick: Rangers Moneyline -106 (Greg’s Handicap Rangers -132)
1:40 PM Eastern
Atlanta Braves vs. Cleveland Guardians
Guardians starting pitcher Logan Allen has struggled with command this season, posting a 3.94 ERA with a 4.41 fielding independent, handing out 3.6 walks with just seven strikeouts per nine innings. Braves starter Erick Fedde has been far worse, giving up at least three runs in eight straight starts. Overall, Fedde has a 5.40 ERA with 5.4 strikeouts and 4.2 walks issued per nine innings.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -125 (Greg’s Handicap Guardians -148)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starter Andrew Abbott has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 16 of his 21 starts this season, posting a 2.41 ERA. However, his 3.66 fielding independent and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings are signs of possible regression. Brewers starter José Quintana has a 3.44 ERA, but his 4.73 fielding independent with 6.3 strikeouts and 3.3 walks per nine innings suggests regression as well. Still, the Brewers lead the league in road scoring with 5.8 runs per game.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +101 and Over 9 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Reds -121 and Total 9.6)
2:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros
Astros starting pitcher Cristian Javier looked solid in his first start of the season, allowing two runs in five innings against the Red Sox. Orioles starter Dean Kremer has a 4.17 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings, but his ERA jumps to 5.42 on the road. The Orioles also rank last in the American League in road scoring at 3.6 runs per game.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -132 (Greg’s Handicap Astros -166)
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starter Ryan Bergert enters with four walks allowed per nine innings but owns a 2.84 ERA, limiting hard contact and allowing just one home run per nine innings. He faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 27th in scoring at 3.8 runs per game. The Royals themselves average only 3.4 runs per game at home, last in MLB home scoring. White Sox starter Davis Martin pitches to contact, posting a 4.17 ERA with just 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.4)
4:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow has a 3.07 ERA, but his 4.25 fielding independent and 4.6 walks per nine innings are concerns. Padres starter Yu Darvish has looked better recently, allowing three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Still, he carries a 5.61 ERA with a career-low 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The Dodgers lead MLB in home scoring with over 5.7 runs per game.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 +135 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Dodgers -1.5 +122 and Total 8.6)
