MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, August 19.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
6:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller has allowed at least three runs in four of his past five games, posting a 4.11 ERA for the season. However, his 3.66 fielding independent suggests positive regression, with 0.8 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings. Blue Jays starter Max Scherzer has rounded into form, posting a 3.87 ERA with 8.7 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings, and he faces a Pirates lineup that ranks last in scoring at 3.5 runs per game.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Pirates Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 7.9)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers
Tigers starter Tarik Skubal has been dominant this season with a 2.42 ERA, 11.2 strikeouts, and just 1.4 walks per nine innings, but he’s looked mortal in his past three starts, allowing at least three runs in all of them. Detroit also has the bullpen disadvantage, ranking 17th in ERA at 4.04, compared to the Astros’ 10th-ranked bullpen at 3.75. Houston’s Hunter Brown has been sharp, allowing two runs or fewer in four straight starts, and owns a 2.45 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts and 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings this year.
Picks: Astros Moneyline +155 and Over 7 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Astros +139 and Total 7.2)
7:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starter Walker Buehler has struggled to a 5.42 ERA this season, with 1.8 home runs and 4.2 walks per nine innings, though he’s been better at home with a 4.35 ERA. Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano owns a 4.13 ERA but is pitching to contact, allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings with just 5.8 strikeouts. Baltimore’s bullpen has struggled, ranking 25th with a 4.70 ERA, while Boston’s relief corps ranks third with a 3.44 ERA.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -130 (Greg’s Handicap Red Sox -155)
7:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
The Rangers rank 24th in run creation at 4.1 runs per game and turn to Merrill Kelly, who has a 3.36 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.7 walks per nine innings allowed. He faces a Royals lineup that ranks last in home scoring with fewer than 3.5 runs per game. Kansas City starter Seth Lugo has a 3.77 ERA overall, allowing at least three runs in three of his past four starts, but he’s been sharper at home with a 3.33 ERA.
Picks: Rangers Moneyline +106 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap Rangers -127 and Total 8.1)
9:38 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Angels
In his first start back from the injured list, Reds pitcher Hunter Greene was dominant, throwing six scoreless innings against the Phillies. On the year, he has a 2.47 ERA with 10.9 strikeouts and 1.9 walks per nine innings. Angels starter Kyle Hendricks has a 4.88 ERA with 6.2 strikeouts and 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he has managed to allow three earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts.
Pick: Reds vs. Angels Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total 8.2)
